The parable of the mountain climbers

Of parables and fallacies

According to the last opinion poll made by the Public Opinion Institute (IUDOP, in Spanish) of the Central American University, the Salvadorans evaluate with a 6.2 -in a scale from one to ten- the President's performance. Consequentially, on June 1st, during his speech before the Legislative Assembly, the Salvadoran President was brimming with optimism. In an instant, he swept the opposition with his parable about the mountain climbers. His government represents, according to him, the visionaries who are not afraid by the obstacles, willing at anytime to climb the mountain in their way up to a very near top.

In his insistence to emphasize on his optimism and his faith in the improvements that, according to him, his government has brought to El Salvador, Flores described the critics as effortless preachers of fatality. "There is always someone who wants to infect others with pessimism" -says the President- "because despair is also a way of convenience. Of all the dangers we face, this is the most pernicious one, since it undermines the energy that a country needs to face the challenges, the problems, and the adversities that the future brings along".

At the same time, the newspapers that follow an official line published that "the presidential administration is characterized by the good sense of its proposals, how considerate its postures are, the ability to distinguish the challenges of the opposition, and the capacity to open spaces for the country in The United States and in the European Community". Ultimately, for the right-wing leaders, Flores is a consummate diplomat who is respected by the President of the United States and the President of the Spanish government. And, in addition, thanks to his personal initiative Central America has the opportunity to incorporate itself, in the next few months, to the North American Common Market, and to negotiate a free trade agreement with the European Community" (See El Diario de Hoy, June 2nd, 2002; page 19).

With these considerations, there is no room left for critics. Flores says that he knows where he is leading the country to. He thinks he will see the top of the mountain. He fights the incredulous with the use of his parables. Flores encourages everyone to be brave and to ignore the negative predictions, in order to neutralize the possible influences that the so called "preachers of bad fortune" might have, who oppose to the self-sacrificed and difficult effort that the ARENA circles make to open the way up the top of the mountain. A complete recipe of political psychology to confuse the Salvadorans about the problems that they daily face. However, in his fight against the pessimistic critics, Francisco Flores has revealed himself as the master of deceit, full of cynicism, and capable to ignore the most critical problems that the country lives. That is the fallacy that his parables contain.

Without this sample of cynicism it is not easy to understand how the president was able to start with his speech, on the one hand, raving about the subject he failed to accomplish (according to the opinion of most Salvadorans): dollarization; and, in the other hand, speaking about the benefits that dollarization has brought for the families that make more than nine thousand colones a month. For most Salvadorans, it is an insult to evoke such high numbers to measure their welfare. Then again, either the President wanted to insult the Salvadoran families that earn the minimum wage, or he is an incompetent politician who is not aware of the basic rules to avoid the citizens’ reproach.

The problem is that the president does not care about the people's opinion. He is confused by his ascent to the top of the mountain and the benefits that his economic policies bring for himself and his followers. That is why he can afford to ignore the opinion of the majority, calling them fools because they do not understand that the top of the mountain is closer than they think. The critics about the bad fortune preachers are enough to sustain his speech. He is sure that his argument will have a positive influence on a population disconcerted by the official policies, and on a left-wing as inept as to increase the growing popular discontent.

With this situation, it is a farce to talk about respect in this country, or about a democratic and a political openness. Francisco Flores has turned his three years of administration into a privileged tribune to discredit the left-wing and anyone who disagrees with the way his team conducts the destiny of El Salvador. In that sense, it is out of place to talk about openness or the opportunity to start a dialogue. In addition, the discourse of the President at the Legislative Assembly makes evident that he has a very little disposition to respond for the issues the Salvadorans reproach his performance for. For the President, it is more important to overlook any kind of opposition, including the majority of Salvadorans who do not experiment any improvements in their life standards, despite the widely advertised economic achievements. The only difference with the former regime is that the people do not get killed anymore for thinking differently. However, the right to disagree is still denied: a person cannot judge the country’s development in different ways, or criticize how the political authorities administrate the national projects.

The communication media that supports the governmental assessments takes the time to condemn those who think in a different way. Ostracism is practiced without any scruple. And the most elemental right is denied to the Salvadorans: the right to say that they do not feel beneficiated by the governmental policies. The accusation against the so called “cowards” or the “preachers of bad fortune” has a meaning in the presidential discourse, since it responds to the typical style of ARENA, whose members feel as the only ones capable to understand and resolve the problems that most Salvadorans face.

Even if it is true that the former idea can be politically correct, and that in a healthy competition each one of the political actors will do whatever is necessary to demonstrate that they are the legitimate voice of the interest of most Salvadorans, what cannot be accepted is how the right-wing's media condemn those who think differently from its protégés. In this sense, the Flores administration is anything but democratic. It is not open for a dialogue or willing to reach agreements, as certain newspaper directors would like the people to believe.

The economy in the report of the Flores' administration (the third year)

One of the first issues President Flores referred to in his "third annual report" was the family’s economy, for considering it a "decisive" issue, so important that it was necessary to open his speech "pointing out the effects that the monetary integration law has had in the country". In addition, in his report he included another three economic aspects: the elimination of the Diesel's subsidy, the multiplication of the maquilas, and the free trade agreements.

Nothing was mentioned about the impact of other measures that have been implemented during this administration, nor about the plans that were not accomplished. The reduction or the elimination of the subsidies from the electric energy and the water consumption, the elimination of the exemptions from the IVA (Value Added Tax) on the purchase of food and medicines, the introduction of the FOVIAL, the tax increase for the micro and the small business companies, and the massive layoffs at the public sector, it is obviously convenient not to mention them, however, these topics have had an influence on the "decisive" issue of the family’s economy.

The behavior of the main macro-economic indicators was not mentioned either, such as the tendencies of the production, the exportations, and the maquila; the situation of the fiscal deficit; the financing needs of the public expense, and the rhythm of the public debt. These aspects were previously approached by the Minister of Hacienda (Internal Revenue Service) and the Secretary of the Presidency, Juan Jose Daboub, who made positive assessments about the macroeconomic performance, which contrast with the evident unstable economic tendencies, compared with the same governmental statistics (See Proceso 1001).

An evaluation of the three years of the present administration must be performed by examining what the government offered in his governmental program, rather than studying the improvised measures, or the fortuitous opportunities such as the Initiative of the Caribbean Basin and the proliferation of textile maquilas with salaries that go below the extreme poverty line.

In his presidential inauguration, Francisco Flores himself announced in another grandiloquent discourse the important guidelines of his government: the elimination of the rate of exchange’s risk to provide stability and predictability for the investors, just like the search for healthy public finances.

The economic program announced in that occasion also included certain measures to favor the weakened productive sectors and the application of sectional policies for the agricultural area that could improve its competitiveness and its profitability (for instance, watering systems, agricultural relations, tactical financing and information).

Three years later, after only the first offer has been accomplished, and to judge by the most recent presidential speech, that did not improve the environment for the investors as it was expected, but it did favor the economy of the Salvadoran family. There are no other accomplishments in other fields: the deficit of the public finances keeps growing, and the productive sectors keep slowing down as well while the government remains unperturbed. Maybe that is why the President chose to highlight other aspects for his third annual evaluation, which -by the way- have had questionable benefits over the family's economy, or that have been annulled by other economic policies that have been suspiciously excluded from the report and already mentioned in this article.

According to President Flores' discourse, the dollarization is a measure that has contributed to improve the economy of the families. This is not completely true. For Flores, one of the impacts of the "monetary integration” has been the reduction of the interests paid by the families to the banking creditors. This is something that, although it might be true, it does not say anything about the situation of the country's most representative families: those without a vehicle, without credit cards, and without any access to a loan to buy a home.

Most of the population is not concerned with the fluctuations of the interest rates, because they are simply not related with the financial system (even several micro business companies have to go to particular creditors to finance their projects). It is not clear how the interest rates' tendency to reduction can be exclusively understood as a result of the dollarization, since a reduction was already registered since 2000. What is clear is that dollarization has brought disadvantages and complications for the fiscal, the monetary, and the commercial policy (See Proceso 986).

A second aspect reviewed by Flores was the elimination of the subsidy from the public transportation fares. According to him, it has also favored the economy of the families since "it returned to the Salvadorans 350 millions of colones a year". However, that "refund" was immediately used so that the vehicle owners would pay the Road and Traffic Fund destined to repair and maintain the roads. The elimination of the subsidy has technically created unfavorable tendencies for the economy of the families, since it has opened the possibility to increase the public transportation fares -something that is already happening in the Occidental and the Eastern part of the country-.

The increasing number of the maquila areas would be another great achievement of the Flores administration, who mentioned that along his three years in the government, the total number of maquila areas would have been expanded from 7 to 15, and that they employ approximately 90,000 people, mostly women. Without denying these activities, it must be said that this kind of economic growth is uncertain and volatile, and that it promotes the conditions for the maintenance and the expansion of employment sources that pay low wages and offer inadequate working conditions. The textile maquilas mostly hire unqualified workers who earn a salary equivalent -or inferior- to the extreme poverty line. These business companies are also characterized by the way they emigrate at the minimum sign of change in the environment (an increase on the salaries, unionizing, taxation, and the elimination of The United States' preferential programs).

The free trade agreements are understood by Flores as another achievement of his government, which has stimulated the exportations to Mexico and The Dominican Republic. The free trade agreement with these countries has already been signed and it is supposed to favor the exportations to Panama -a agreement was recently signed with this country-, Canada, The European Union, and The United States. The omission that can be detected here, and which has been formerly mentioned is that even if the exportations to Mexico have increased, the importations grew much larger, inflating the commercial deficit with that country. In addition, the volume of the commerce with countries such as The Dominican Republic and Panama is as small as the impacts that could be expected from any agreements with those countries.

Many times, the declarations and the interpretations about the reality made by the public officials are an insult to intelligence. A realistic government cannot boast about some achievements that have not been accomplished by its administration (as the proliferation of the textile maquila, and the macroeconomic balance reached with the family remittances' flow), cannot be ambiguous or cover up the continuity and the intensification of the economic setback, and the slowdown of the agricultural production.

After the third year of administration, the only element that has been achieved is the elimination of the rate of exchange’s risk, and a high price has been paid for it. The problem is that it has not caused significant changes for the investments, as the decreasing tendency of the economic growth rates reveals. The government still owes the country the promises he made about the health of the public finances and the support to the productive sectors. Most importantly, the government keeps postponing the adoption of corrective measures for the problems that have been pointed out at numerous times for the last five years.