The
Free Trade Agreements with the USA begin: a formal discussion is necessary
The expected
signing of a Free Trade Agreement between Central America and the United
States (CAFTA) is getting to the point where its defenders wanted it. On
January 8th, a series of long negotiations took place in the United States’
Capital, which are programmed to establish the subscription of the agreement
for the next year.
The Ministers of Economy from Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua,
and Costa Rica will get together with the person responsible for the Foreign
Commerce Affair, Robert Zoellic. According to the press, the negotiations
will be made by six groups, which include issues such as the access to the
markets, services and investments, solutions, cooperation, labor tasks, and
the environment, just to mention a few examples.
The negotiations were accompanied by protests of certain organizations in El
Salvador. That morning, the members of the unions and the civilian
organizations blocked the most important roads of the Salvadoran capital. In
addition, we witnessed a scene that we had not seen since the early years of
the war: the Metropolitan Cathedral was taken by those organizations that
are against to the Free Trade Agreements and the privatization of the health
sector.
Those contrasting scenes –one the one hand, the Central American Delegates
in Washington, “with their luggage full of dreams”, according to the ironic
expression of the Costa Rican newspaper La Nación; on the other hand, a
social movement that questions the Free Trade Agreement – show an agreement
signed by the controversy and the vertical attitude of the governments that
will implement it.
The next steps of the CAFTA
Against all odds, the Ministries of Economy of Central America will follow
the agenda of activities proposed by the American negotiation team, which
considers the possibility to have a monthly meeting in each one of the
participant countries.
The appointment for January 8th is the formal beginning. After that, the
first round of negotiations will take place in San José, Costa Rica, between
the 27th and the 31st of that month. From February 24th through the 28th,
San Salvador will receive the delegations to continue with the process.
The fourth date will take place in Washington, from March 31st through April
4th, where they will discuss the elimination of the levy from the sensitive
merchandise. After that, the negotiations will have a recess, which will be
extended until May 12th, in Guatemala, where a four-day meeting will take
place.
The deliberations will continue in Honduras, from June 16th through the
20th, and they will take place again in the United States, between July 28th
and August the 1st. The final track will be defined during the last three
reunions: Nicaragua (from September 8th through the 12th), Costa Rica (from
October 20th through the 24th), and again in the United States between the
8th and the 12th of December. During the first quarter of 2004, the CAFTA
will be a consummated fact.
The impossibility of having a formal discussion
It can be said that the CAFTA expresses the virtual impossibility of having
a formal discussion between those governments that are extremely interested
to sign the agreements by all means, and the organizations of the civil
society, which have contested projects such as this one or the Puebla-Panamá
plan.
It has been said that such dialogue needs a consensus as a starting point
about the terms of the discussion. Those in favor as well as those against
the CAFTA say that their position brings certain benefits to their
respective societies. Those in favor of the CAFTA understand the
increasingly profitable business they manage as a social benefit. With this
perspective, they automatically assume that more jobs will be created and
that the poverty and unemployment levels will be reduced. On the other hand,
those against the CAFTA say that the welfare of the societies begins when
the subsistence of the population is guaranteed. Certainly, the small
importance that the issues about the human development have in those
initiatives is very suspicious.
Therefore, there are two positions about the CAFTA, those in favor of the
agreement assure that this is the privileged path to reach a maximum benefit
for the societies –in terms of an economic development-. Those who do not
agree with the CAFTA believe that it will harm the rights of the laborers,
and both the economic and the cultural rights of the population (as well as
the environmental sustainability). Those in favor of the CAFTA believe that
it will resolve for once and for all the historic problem of the regional
integration.
This is not about a game of perceptions. There are facts that prove the
suspicions about the CAFTA. The most evident one is the disparity of the
conditions that the farmers of the region find between them and the American
farmers. While the CAFTA will eliminate the duty-related restrictions of
Central America, the United States’ agricultural system enjoys a
considerable amount of subsidies.
This affects the local farmers in a negative way, and the viability of the
Central American economies is in danger. The priority of those economies –the
production of the basic grains and the cultivations of the basic products-
would be confronting a competitor who is much more advanced technological
knowledge, and who would enjoy all of the advantages and no restrictions.
The danger of a generalized crisis is not small, especially if we remember
the famine that the inhabitants of the rural areas of Nicaragua went through,
something that had never been seen before.
The agricultural production issue was precisely the dark aspect of the
reunion that took place in Washington. In this euphoric atmosphere, created
by those responsible for the Central American economy, it was the farmers
who seemed more skeptical about the alleged benefits of the agreement with
the United States.
All of these excuses intend to explain why there is no possibility to have a
formal discussion about free trade: the participants have different
perspectives about it. If those perspectives have nothing in common, any
sort of debate can take place, but they cannot have a dialogue. This allows
us to see what caused the failure of the alleged mechanisms of participation
that belong to the projects such as the CAFTA or the PPP. Therefore, what
could be expected is that the CAFTA negotiations will go on as planned,
without considering the opinions of the civil society.
On the other hand, the official discourse of those who support the CAFTA –and
the rest of projects related with the construction of the Free Trade
Agreement Area of the Americas, (ALCA, in Spanish) –has been about how to
open a dialogue with the civil society. Because of the suspicions about the
lack of debates, those who support the CAFTA say that this project has a
series of sectors designed to examine the needs of the civil society.
As a formal aspect, this could be true, but it is also true that the
civilian organizations have complained about not having enough information.
It could be said that there is information about it. Not too long ago, the
government of Nicaragua, through the Ministry for the Encouragement of the
Industry and Commerce –MIFIC, in Spanish- opened a web page to respond to
the most common questions about the CAFTA, for example. However such
information does not touch the bottom line of the subject. The available
information explains what are the possible advantages of the CAFTA, but it
does not say much about the social, the political or the economic costs that
it will bring.
As a marketing strategy, it is impeccable: it is about selling a product by
making it look attractive, and by controlling the information in a way that
nobody ever really wonders how much it will cost to live in a paradise of
the free trade.
The negotiators do not have access to the same amount of information, that
is why they cannot hold a horizontal conversation. Only one of the parts
knows what the future will bring. The other part can do nothing but suspect.
This fact was admitted during a meeting of the ALCA, celebrated in Quito, on
last November. We are talking about the president of the Banco
Interamericano de Desarrollo (the Inter-American Bank of Development, BID,
in Spanish), Enrique Iglesias.
For example, one of the aspects that was brought into discussion was the
direct economic costs that each country will have to face in order to
participate in the preliminary negotiation of the CAFTA. One of the most
indebted countries of Central America, with a serious problem of poverty and
unemployment such as Nicaragua recently got a loan of $5 million from the
BID. It also got another $500,000 from the funds of the Central American
Bank for the Economic Integration (BCIE, in Spanish), in order to make the
necessary expenses for the negotiation. How will the contributors pay for
this considerable debt? A debt that seems like the bet of someone who is
financially broke and decides to mortgage everything in order to buy a
lottery ticket. What if there are loses? –which is highly probable-, it will
be very difficult to recover from the risky bet.
It is necessary to remember that the beginning of the conversations about
the CAFTA is taking place at the same time that President Bush is announcing
a plan of economic reforms. The controversial plan, which intends to
increase the economic growth of the United States, will reduce several taxes.
This measure will benefit some of the country’s wealthiest people. On the
other hand, the United States is about to fight a war against Iraq.
Both of these elements make Central America seem as the counterpart of the
deal. The disadvantages of an economic crisis are combined with the
aggressiveness of its foreign affairs policy. The question that no one is
discussing is what role will the CAFTA play in that critical context? It is
not reasonable to expect that a country that faces a critical moment (this
week, the dollar dropped drastically in the international market before the
perspectives of a war against Baghdad) takes a chance of such dimensions.
The United States in a fully developed economy, how will our economies pay
for the crisis at Washington? This is an important question, because both
the CAFTA and the ALCA will leave Central America even more compromised with
Washington.
In summary, the absence of a formal discussion between the governments and
the civil society before an inexorable CAFTA leads the way to a skeptical
level. From this stage to the immediate violent reactions there is nothing
but one step. It is necessary that our societies have a formal discussion.
We cannot leave the door open and suffer the effects of a set of new social
convulsions, which will only turn into all kinds of loses.
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