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Proceso 1038
February 26, 2003
ISSN 0259-9864
 
 

INDEX




Editorial: A hard-fought election

Politics: The elections and the democracy in El Salvador

Economy: The Economic aspects of the electoral campaign (I)

 
 
Editorial


A hard-fought election

 

All of the national indicators of the pre-electoral opinion poll made by the IUDOP show that ARENA has a global advantage. However, that does not mean that this party will win the elections, as its leaders promised. No one can assure that ARENA will reach its objective. If the tendencies remain steady, ARENA will have the highest number of congressmen, but not the legislative majority (25.2%). The FMLN will probably obtain the second place (17.4%), followed by the PCN (6.8%). On the other hand, the PDC (5.2%) and the CDU (4.7%) are fighting for the fourth place; however, it is highly probable that the latter keeps that place in the end.


The context of these elections is more favorable for ARENA than it is for the FMLN, since the public opinion is paying more attention to delinquency than to the economy, which now occupies a second place of importance. This is a relevant change, because an environment dominated by economic problems favors the FMLN; while an environment of crime and insecurity favors ARENA. The FMLN has gained more public acceptance than ARENA, specially when it comes to face the fight against corruption and the control of the prices. On the other hand, ARENA has some important advantages when it comes to offer employment and security. However, the main concern of the people is not corruption, nor inflation, but unemployment and delinquency, an aspect that the most important news media have highlighted during the last few weeks.


The population seems to be disenchanted with the political system. Most people have either a little or no interest at all in the elections; only one fourth of the population is highly interest in it. According to the IUDOP this is the one fourth who will vote. About one third of those interviewed said that they will vote (against a 40% who will not vote). These attitudes did not show any important changes, but the indicators were already very low. The level of abstention is still very high, but steady. The disenchantment keeps growing: only one third of those interviewed think that the elections will be clean, against almost half of those who think that there will be a fraud. The rest does not know if the elections will be transparent. The image of the parties seems deteriorated, and the country looks worse. A considerable number of those interviewed (70%) say that they have not received any benefits from the political parties, while 62% assures that the political parties do not represent the interests of the population. Most of those interviewed (58%) think that the elections are a waste of time, because they do not bring any important changes, while another 70% thinks that the national situation is taking a turn for the worse. It should not seem odd then if the support for democracy keeps decreasing. A 38% of those interviewed think that democracy is not a relevant issue for them; 50% think that they prefer democracy over any other system; and 90% think that an authoritarian government is better (or preferable) than a democratic one.


This opinion poll shows that ARENA “wins” with the crisis of both the public health system and Hector Silva. The FMLN has lost some of the support that the middle and the wealthy sectors gave to it. It seems as if this party will only count with the vote of the laborers and the vote of the working class sector. The latter has been faithful to the FMLN and it is concentrated on the metropolitan area. In the end, the public health crisis affected the FMLN in a negative way (more than if affected ARENA). This might be because the conflict has not brought any changes yet and because things turned out the way the Flores administration expected. The strength of ARENA seems to be associated to its capacity to gain young voters. It does get ingenuous votes, the votes of those who are astonished by its media campaign; while the FMLN gets the votes of those who are disenchanted with the Flores administration. However, the FMLN loses the votes that go the CDU, the PDC, and, logically, those votes, that go to ARENA. The internal conflicts have worn out the strength of the FMLN, mostly inside the rural areas. However, it is highly probable that the FMLN keeps the administration of the City Halls of Soyapango, Mejicanos, and Santa Tecla.


The CDU will play an important role in the metropolitan area. But the possibility to take away from the PCN the third place at the Legislative Assembly is very remote. The CDU has no capacity to gain votes from the rural areas, while the PCN has the necessary “experience” to do so and to take advantage of the quotients and the residues. In general terms, it could be possible that the CDU gets as many votes as the PCN, but the votes that the PCN gets from the rural voters are more important than the ones that the CDU gets from the voters of San Salvador. It is evident that during these elections, the small parties –PCN, CDU, and PDC- will improve their performance; and, therefore, will have a stronger presence at the Legislative Assembly. However, they will not grow enough as to take over the second place of importance that the FMLN has. The rest of the political parties will have to fight to survive during these elections.


The tie that the opinion poll shows at the City Hall of San Salvador –and in the election of the congressmen of this city- does not allow us to foresee who the winner will be. That is not the intention of the IUDOP, but to analyze the opinions of the population. The victory will be decided on March 16th and it will depend on what happens during the next couple of weeks. The FMLN will receive the benefits of those votes in favor of the CDU for the Legislative Assembly –this party occupies a comfortable third place in San Salvador (14%) far away from the PCN (3%), the PDC (2.5%) and others (1.8%)-. Those who vote for the left-wing party are politically active because Silva is running for congress; but they will not waste their votes for the mayor. Therefore, in this case they will vote for the FMLN. They share with it the opposition against ARENA. This is what keeps the FMLN alive at the City Hall of San Salvador. A massive influence is also the positive evaluation that the present municipal government received.


ARENA is at the same level of the FMLN in San Salvador because of the absence of Silva and because of the crisis that his departure caused inside the party. However, ARENA has not been able to win the territory of the FMLN because most of the population of the city belongs to the left-wing sector. Those who have placed the City Hall of San Salvador in the hands of the FMLN are not willing to give it to ARENA. The candidate of ARENA holds the image of the party, but she does not attract new voters. Her modern image does not have an impact on the informed, the active, and the less ingenuous voters.


Nevertheless, her image is very good: 44% of those interviewed find her more likeable, while only 26% find the candidate of the FMLN likeable; however, she does not fit well inside the standards of ARENA. Sympathy will not necessarily bring her more votes, as it happened with Silva and the FMLN. This is her dilemma. They put her on that position to gain additional votes; however, given her left-wing background, she has been forced to convince ARENA that she is part of its members. By trying to convince them that she is proud to be part of ARENA, she deteriorates her image with the voters. The message that she is sending is that when she is elected she will behave as any other member of ARENA, and this attitude deteriorates the strength of her image. The verdict of the public opinion is clear: she is good, but her party is not. As long as her image is connected with the most negative stereotypes of ARENA, she will lose a number of votes.


If there were a massive participation at the elections, ARENA would probably win in San Salvador, because its powerful electoral machinery can touch the will of many. The FMLN, instead, counts with very few resources to overcome the tie. However, the votes for Silva and Dada are positive for the FMLN. That is why the real adversary that ARENA has is not the FMLN but the CDU. The challenge is to defeat Silva and Dada, who run for congressmen, and to defeat the candidate that runs for mayor of San Salvador for the FMLN. The FMLN could improve its image if it puts an emphasis on the qualified municipal administration that it had, and if it gets away from its traditional image. Anyhow, the dispute will be tight and it will be decided by just a few votes. Therefore, it is impossible to say who the winner will be. On the other hand, ARENA could take over the City Hall of San Salvador if it negotiates with the PCN and the PDC the few votes that these parties receive. The definitive results of the most symbolic part of the elections –and not necessarily one most important part- will be ready until the last day.

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Politics


The elections and the democracy in El Salvador

 

The debate about democracy has taken different turns. The critics do not seem to agree about the main variables that must be considered when it comes to examine the democratic performance of a certain country. However, despite of all of the divergences, there is certain unanimity when it comes to think that the role of the electoral organizations is an important step towards the institutional identity of democracy.


This is how the electoral institutions gain a critical importance. The political actors and the citizens demand an independent criterion, the capability to work individually. However, on the other hand, it is also important that these institutions count with the necessary technical capacity to guarantee the credibility of the electoral process. No matter how much political and social support a regime could have, if the institution that organizes the elections disappoints the hopes of the voters, it will also irritate the citizenry and affect the performance of the democratic system.


Therefore, any evaluation about how democratic the political actors are –the members of a certain political system-, cannot overlook the support that the electoral tribunal gets. It is necessary to wonder about the independence and the level of technical capacity that allow this institution to accomplish its tasks. To be elected through to a transparent process, organized by an independent institution, is very prestigious nowadays. Otherwise ask George Bush, who was elected through a questionable process. The incident at Florida, which involved quite a few judicial battles, resolved by the United States’ Supreme Tribunal, affected the legitimacy of the Bush administration.


The important question now is to determine what is the category that El Salvador occupies in relation to its electoral organism. Can we talk about an independent electoral organism? Does it count with the necessary technical capacity to organize a trustworthy process of elections? These questions will be discussed in this article.


The present Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE, in Spanish), of El Salvador was opened in 1992 after a constitutional reform. This reform was approved in the context of the Peace Agreements. From the beginning it has organized three electoral events (four now, if you count the 2003 elections). In reference to the independence of the electoral organism, the article 208 of the Constitution acknowledges its high level of authority. It expresses the will of the actors who were involved in the Peace negotiations, who wanted to give birth to a new institution in the style of an inclusive political system.


The Salvadoran electoral organism is a combination of a structure formed by the people who come from the parties (three magistrates), the presence of the elements suggested by the Supreme Court of Justice and those who do not belong to any party (two magistrates). Some analysts consider that such organization is the best, because it allows the electoral organism to rescue a couple of important issues for the political systems. In the first place, to guarantee a mutual control of the parties. In the second place the independent members balance the process and help to moderate the interests of the parties inside the organization.


However, an obstacle for the TSE –which prevents it form accomplishing its mission in an independent way- is its very own organization. Three out of its five members (who are also owners) come from the parties that count with more voters. This reality prevents the TSE from acting independently. The magistrates understand their duties as the representatives of their party; therefore, they are incapable of making decisions that might affect them.


This situation is connected, for instance, with the electoral propaganda issue that violates the constitutional dispositions related with this subject. Most people know that the political parties launched their campaigns, especially in the case of those who ran for the municipal council, before the period established by the law. Article 81 of the Constitution stipulates that “the electoral propaganda will only be allowed if it is launched two months before the elections in the case of the congressmen, and one month before the elections in the case of the Municipal Councils”. The authorities from the TSE were not at the height of the circumstances when it came to apply the laws and make the candidates respect them. This happened because the correct measures would have affected their own parties.


In reference to the honesty, the transparency, and the credibility of the elections in El Salvador, the TSE has walked a long way. Ever since the organization of the first elections until these days, the amount of complaints related with the technical and the logistic problems has been reduced. At this point, no one questions the results revealed by the TSE. In addition, and because it is a permanent organism, it has eventually resolved the typical difficulties that come from the lack of experience of its members. The TSE has gained experience through the years, and it is evident that this institution has been used in the benefit of the young democracy of El Salvador.


There are plenty of other issues that have to be discussed. The TSE has not achieved an acceptable organizational level that can allow it to face the electoral process without experiencing unexpected problems. Although it is necessary to say that many of the logistic changes that the TSE should undertake depend on political decisions that are out of its reach. This is the case of the residential vote and the single document of identity (DUI, in Spanish), among others. The political parties are the ones that should make the correct decisions –in relation to this subject- in order that the TSE can react at the height of the circumstances. However, that is not an obstacle to resolve problems such as the depuration of the electoral records, or to expedite procedures to obtain the necessary documents to vote.


The former observations lead us to the responsibility that the TSE has in regard to the amount of people who do not participate in the election process. The recent investigations reveal that during the last elections approximately 10% of those who could not vote, were not able to do so because of the TSE. If we considered the high percentage of abstention during the elections, there is no doubt that 10% of the votes has been lost because of the TSE, and this should call the attention of the members of the system.


That is why if the new political regime of El Salvador –launched after the Peace Agreements- intends to keep gaining legitimacy and respectability, it is important that the TSE keeps counting with the support of the political actors. In addition, the TSE has to return the vote of trust it received through a faster rhythm during the organization of the elections.

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Economy


The Economic aspects of the electoral campaign (I)

 

The electoral campaign is at its final stage. That is why it is important to consider the economic aspect of the proposals made by the candidates in order to figure out what are the feasible elements for the development of the country. In this article we will briefly reflect about the measures proposed by ARENA and the PCN that are connected with the national economy. We will also analyze the proposals made by the left-wing parties.


The proposals of the candidates from ARENA who run for the congress, in general terms, have taken the same direction throughout the last decade. Their candidates are not making new proposals and they keep working together with the Executive Organ for the prevailing economic policy. They have made themselves clear about their support for the Free Trade Agreement with other countries or regions, without the need to make the necessary considerations. In a few words, they are willing to support all of the economic policies implemented by the Executive power.


After ignoring the agricultural sector for so many years, the candidates of ARENA have placed their eyes on it. Their promise is to encourage from the congress a diversification of the cultivation. The objective of this measure would be connected with the production of non-traditional farming activities, because according to their opinion, these products look well for a free trade agreement with the United States. This is an interesting subject, mostly if it is considered that the ARENA administrations have given more importance to the growth of the sector of services. The official party proposes this productive diversification also as an answer to the opinion of the candidates from the FMLN, the PCN, and the CDU who have said that the agricultural sector will be especially considered when it comes to discuss the free trade agreements that the country can ratify. As it has been mentioned before, a productive diversification is not an easy task, it does not happen over night, and it goes beyond the legislative level.


The candidates of the PCN who run for the congress have based their proposals on the request for an increase of the national budget destined to the city halls. They intend to obtain approximately 8% or 12% and closely observe the possible impact that a free trade agreement with the United States would have for the Salvadoran agricultural sector. In other words, their intention is that the agricultural sector receives a special treatment during the negotiations.


A higher budget for the municipalities seems necessary. The municipalities have a different number of problems, and the objective is to resolve them. Only the municipal governments know the specific needs of their people, that is why a higher budget would enable them to answer to those needs.

Nevertheless, it is important to create the necessary mechanisms to control the different municipalities of the country, mostly if this involves a process of democratization. This means that the municipalities can have more autonomy, but that autonomy should be supported by a considerable number of resources in order to face their responsibilities.


To consider the needs of the agricultural sector in a special way before the free trade agreement seems to be an urgent task. The agricultural sector is a source of employment for those who have a smaller amount of resources to survive. Although the proposals seem to be attractive, the PCN has not said anything about the specific plans that could be implemented. And this would not only be important to resolve the situation of the agricultural sector, but to take it out of the economic stagnation.


In reference to the municipalities, the candidates from ARENA who run for mayors seem to have found that the public security is an attractive issue for the citizenry. However, in the city, Evelyn Jacir de Lovo promises to examine the municipal rates and to generate more employment. To examine the municipal rates is extremely necessary, as long as it is a fair analysis, and with enough care when it comes to collect the municipal revenues. The creation of employment; on the other hand, is a problem that goes beyond the jurisdiction of the city hall, that is why this is not easy to accomplish.


Generally, the proposals of the municipal candidates from ARENA have included the economic issues. However, there are certain candidates from that party who, as it happened in Mejicanos, promised to give their support to the small and the medium business companies. Although it is indispensable to strengthen that sector, it is also necessary to count with higher budget, and this is something that ARENA is not willing to approve.


Economically speaking, it seems that the candidate postulated by the PDC for the City Hall of San Salvador, María Julia Castillo, has not delivered a clear speech. She considers that there are certain aspects that have nothing to do with the municipalities and that belong to the Executive power.


The candidates for the right-wing Salvadoran congress do not propose anything new: to consolidate the process of commercial openness, to continue dividing the economy in three sectors, to stop the FMLN from wining the elections, and to keep administrating most of the municipalities seem to be the most important objectives. The issue of the budget increase for the city halls is a source of disagreements for ARENA. There are a few mayors from the official party who need this increase for their municipal administrations, and think differently from the other members of the party who are at the Legislative Assembly. ARENA does not seem to approve this increase, since it is not willing to allow that the mayors of the FMLN appear doing “the good deeds” that the Executive power wants to use to feed its advertising strategy.


As for the municipalities, it could be said that the proposals of the candidates who run for mayor are related with the political and the social issues, and that they overlook the economic problems and the possible solutions. In this sense, the mayors should make an effort to make their proposals more systematic by dealing with the economic aspect, since this is the foundation of the social and the political activities.


The problems such as the water supplying system, the lack of security and the deficient illumination on the streets are situations that usually remain the same before and after the campaigns. It seems that the actual difficulty is that the mayors come and go and the problems survive. It is essential to react, and that is why it is necessary to assign a better administration and more resources to the municipalities.

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