A
hard-fought election
All of the
national indicators of the pre-electoral opinion poll made by the IUDOP show
that ARENA has a global advantage. However, that does not mean that this
party will win the elections, as its leaders promised. No one can assure
that ARENA will reach its objective. If the tendencies remain steady, ARENA
will have the highest number of congressmen, but not the legislative
majority (25.2%). The FMLN will probably obtain the second place (17.4%),
followed by the PCN (6.8%). On the other hand, the PDC (5.2%) and the CDU
(4.7%) are fighting for the fourth place; however, it is highly probable
that the latter keeps that place in the end.
The context of these elections is more favorable for ARENA than it is for
the FMLN, since the public opinion is paying more attention to delinquency
than to the economy, which now occupies a second place of importance. This
is a relevant change, because an environment dominated by economic problems
favors the FMLN; while an environment of crime and insecurity favors ARENA.
The FMLN has gained more public acceptance than ARENA, specially when it
comes to face the fight against corruption and the control of the prices. On
the other hand, ARENA has some important advantages when it comes to offer
employment and security. However, the main concern of the people is not
corruption, nor inflation, but unemployment and delinquency, an aspect that
the most important news media have highlighted during the last few weeks.
The population seems to be disenchanted with the political system. Most
people have either a little or no interest at all in the elections; only one
fourth of the population is highly interest in it. According to the IUDOP
this is the one fourth who will vote. About one third of those interviewed
said that they will vote (against a 40% who will not vote). These attitudes
did not show any important changes, but the indicators were already very low.
The level of abstention is still very high, but steady. The disenchantment
keeps growing: only one third of those interviewed think that the elections
will be clean, against almost half of those who think that there will be a
fraud. The rest does not know if the elections will be transparent. The
image of the parties seems deteriorated, and the country looks worse. A
considerable number of those interviewed (70%) say that they have not
received any benefits from the political parties, while 62% assures that the
political parties do not represent the interests of the population. Most of
those interviewed (58%) think that the elections are a waste of time,
because they do not bring any important changes, while another 70% thinks
that the national situation is taking a turn for the worse. It should not
seem odd then if the support for democracy keeps decreasing. A 38% of those
interviewed think that democracy is not a relevant issue for them; 50% think
that they prefer democracy over any other system; and 90% think that an
authoritarian government is better (or preferable) than a democratic one.
This opinion poll shows that ARENA “wins” with the crisis of both the public
health system and Hector Silva. The FMLN has lost some of the support that
the middle and the wealthy sectors gave to it. It seems as if this party
will only count with the vote of the laborers and the vote of the working
class sector. The latter has been faithful to the FMLN and it is
concentrated on the metropolitan area. In the end, the public health crisis
affected the FMLN in a negative way (more than if affected ARENA). This
might be because the conflict has not brought any changes yet and because
things turned out the way the Flores administration expected. The strength
of ARENA seems to be associated to its capacity to gain young voters. It
does get ingenuous votes, the votes of those who are astonished by its media
campaign; while the FMLN gets the votes of those who are disenchanted with
the Flores administration. However, the FMLN loses the votes that go the
CDU, the PDC, and, logically, those votes, that go to ARENA. The internal
conflicts have worn out the strength of the FMLN, mostly inside the rural
areas. However, it is highly probable that the FMLN keeps the administration
of the City Halls of Soyapango, Mejicanos, and Santa Tecla.
The CDU will play an important role in the metropolitan area. But the
possibility to take away from the PCN the third place at the Legislative
Assembly is very remote. The CDU has no capacity to gain votes from the
rural areas, while the PCN has the necessary “experience” to do so and to
take advantage of the quotients and the residues. In general terms, it could
be possible that the CDU gets as many votes as the PCN, but the votes that
the PCN gets from the rural voters are more important than the ones that the
CDU gets from the voters of San Salvador. It is evident that during these
elections, the small parties –PCN, CDU, and PDC- will improve their
performance; and, therefore, will have a stronger presence at the
Legislative Assembly. However, they will not grow enough as to take over the
second place of importance that the FMLN has. The rest of the political
parties will have to fight to survive during these elections.
The tie that the opinion poll shows at the City Hall of San Salvador –and in
the election of the congressmen of this city- does not allow us to foresee
who the winner will be. That is not the intention of the IUDOP, but to
analyze the opinions of the population. The victory will be decided on March
16th and it will depend on what happens during the next couple of weeks. The
FMLN will receive the benefits of those votes in favor of the CDU for the
Legislative Assembly –this party occupies a comfortable third place in San
Salvador (14%) far away from the PCN (3%), the PDC (2.5%) and others
(1.8%)-. Those who vote for the left-wing party are politically active
because Silva is running for congress; but they will not waste their votes
for the mayor. Therefore, in this case they will vote for the FMLN. They
share with it the opposition against ARENA. This is what keeps the FMLN
alive at the City Hall of San Salvador. A massive influence is also the
positive evaluation that the present municipal government received.
ARENA is at the same level of the FMLN in San Salvador because of the
absence of Silva and because of the crisis that his departure caused inside
the party. However, ARENA has not been able to win the territory of the FMLN
because most of the population of the city belongs to the left-wing sector.
Those who have placed the City Hall of San Salvador in the hands of the FMLN
are not willing to give it to ARENA. The candidate of ARENA holds the image
of the party, but she does not attract new voters. Her modern image does not
have an impact on the informed, the active, and the less ingenuous voters.
Nevertheless, her image is very good: 44% of those interviewed find her more
likeable, while only 26% find the candidate of the FMLN likeable; however,
she does not fit well inside the standards of ARENA. Sympathy will not
necessarily bring her more votes, as it happened with Silva and the FMLN.
This is her dilemma. They put her on that position to gain additional votes;
however, given her left-wing background, she has been forced to convince
ARENA that she is part of its members. By trying to convince them that she
is proud to be part of ARENA, she deteriorates her image with the voters.
The message that she is sending is that when she is elected she will behave
as any other member of ARENA, and this attitude deteriorates the strength of
her image. The verdict of the public opinion is clear: she is good, but her
party is not. As long as her image is connected with the most negative
stereotypes of ARENA, she will lose a number of votes.
If there were a massive participation at the elections, ARENA would probably
win in San Salvador, because its powerful electoral machinery can touch the
will of many. The FMLN, instead, counts with very few resources to overcome
the tie. However, the votes for Silva and Dada are positive for the FMLN.
That is why the real adversary that ARENA has is not the FMLN but the CDU.
The challenge is to defeat Silva and Dada, who run for congressmen, and to
defeat the candidate that runs for mayor of San Salvador for the FMLN. The
FMLN could improve its image if it puts an emphasis on the qualified
municipal administration that it had, and if it gets away from its
traditional image. Anyhow, the dispute will be tight and it will be decided
by just a few votes. Therefore, it is impossible to say who the winner will
be. On the other hand, ARENA could take over the City Hall of San Salvador
if it negotiates with the PCN and the PDC the few votes that these parties
receive. The definitive results of the most symbolic part of the elections –and
not necessarily one most important part- will be ready until the last day.
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