The frustration of the right-wing sector

The electoral slap

The preliminary results of the March 16th elections have been made public. The FMLN and the PCN are celebrating. ARENA is going downhill. The smallest parties languish. Celebration, inconformity, and uncertainty are the three first words that come to mind when someone tries to understand the facial expressions of the different political actors, winners and losers, that the pictures and the television have shown during the past few days. The political actors are reflecting over the results of the elections, while their faces show their emotions. For those who are trying to understand the swings and arrows of the national politics, the most important exercise is to reflect over the meaning of the voters’ choices. It is necessary to measure the dimension of the results obtained by each one of the parties, and determine how can that affect the country’s political life during the next three years.

The first description of the results
For a preliminary interpretation of the events, it is necessary to consider the electoral consolidation feeling that predominates in the FMLN because of the progressive erosion at ARENA. There is no doubt that these two parties still have the leading roles of the system, and, because of that, they get the attention of most of the Salvadoran voters. In general terms, the results of the elections ratify this fact. However, it is necessary to observe that the number of votes that both of these parties received reveals a notoriously unequal performance.

If the elections’ results of the members of the congress are analyzed, it can be observed that ARENA obtained 27 seats at the Legislative Assembly. ARENA managed to convince at least 320,245 voters (32% of the valid votes for the congressmen). Those results represent a dramatic reduction of the political power that ARENA has inside the Legislative Assembly. These results can be evident through a comparative analysis with the outcome of the 2000 elections, after which the official party obtained 29 congressmen and the support of 436,169 citizens (a comfortable 36.04% of the votes). Arena does not sound convincing –although that is a condition that it shares with all of the parties that participated in the last elections-; and, at the same time, it is losing its territory before its most important rival, the left wing.

The FMLN obtained 31 seats for their congressmen with a 33.78% of the valid votes for the Legislative Assembly, which is equivalent to the support of 338,117 citizens. If compared with the results of the year 2000, the party has not grown. However, the FMLN members seem to feel satisfied by the fact that their results are more positive than the ones of its rival. The FMLN is in a better position than ARENA is, despite the fact that during the elections of 2000 the former obtained a 35.33% of the valid votes, that is, it counted with the support of 426,289 citizens for the elections of the congressmen. The FMLN not only has more congressmen than the right-wing party has, but it also counts with most of the votes. This is an important achievement that can lead them to think about the possibility to keep getting ahead of the official party.

The PCN increased its votes and the number of its congressmen. From an 8.82% (106,802 votes) obtained during the year 2000, the PCN recently obtained 131,483 votes, an amount equivalent to a 13.14% of the civilian support. It presently counts with 14 congressmen, and it will count with 16 congressmen by May 1st . A superficial interpretation of the electoral results could lead to consider that the PCN has been the only one that, to the eyes of the Salvadoran voters, has been able to defend its proposals to resolve problems such as security, unemployment, and privatization. However, this is not much of a fact if the behavior of the PCN congressmen is examined during the present legislature, or if an analysis is made about the effects that their public policies have had on the lives of the Salvadorans.

As for the smallest parties, the United Democratic Center (CDU, in Spanish) and the Democratic Christian Party (PDC), they passed the test. They managed to survive in a very hostile environment, characterized by the death of more than half of the parties that participated in the elections. The CDU got a 6.29% of the votes (62,974 voters supported their legislative proposal). The PDC obtained the support of 73,052 citizens, which is equivalent to 7.3% of the valid votes for the election of congressmen.

About the Renovators (PMR), the Popular Alliance (AP), the National Action Party (PAN), the Republican Popular Party (PPR), or the Christian Strength Party (FC) no one will keep mentioning them. None of these parties made it to the 3% barrier demanded by Article 182 of the Electoral Code in order to remain as a set of political options for the Salvadoran population. However, there are several interpretations that can be made about the disappearance of these political institutions. On the one hand, it is evident that these parties were not able to convince the Salvadorans about the positive aspects of their projects. On the other hand -especially in the case of the PMR and the PPR-, their poor results confirm that to promote the division of the traditional parties as the way to resolve their internal problems is not the right way to get the voters’ attention.

The new perspectives for the Legislative Assembly
In addition to a description of the March 16th elections, it is necessary to determine how will the new distribution of forces affect the behavior of the political actors. To have a first glance at what could be the answer to this question, it would be convenient to agree about a couple of subjects. It is necessary to reveal the premises that explain the behavior of the political parties. And it is also necessary to find an answer to what was the lesson that the politicians learned from the results of the last elections.

To explain the behavior of the politicians, it is necessary to remember that they intend to win the elections either to keep or to gain a share of the power inside of the political system. Therefore, to understand why and how they make certain decisions it is essential to examine the possible consequences that such resolutions can bring in order to achieve these objectives. The parameters of the parties’ behavior, in a democratic system, must be defined through these lines because they motivate either the changes or the lack of actions.

An important aspect of the results of the March 16th elections is the strong signal that the society is sending to the political parties. This observation, which seems very radical, is not supported by the alleged victory of the left-wing sector. It would be irresponsible to insinuate that the FMLN has defeated ARENA during the last elections. A cold interpretation of the results indicates that the FMLN as well as ARENA are affected by their radical behavior. The only difference is the magnitude of the loss that each one of them has experimented.

Evidently, ARENA will have to work harder, not only to gain more electoral support, but also to prevent the FMLN from gaining votes. From that perspective, ARENA will have to examine its association with the PCN, as well as the authoritarian tint that has characterized this alliance. On the other hand, ARENA will have to begin by making certain concessions about several fundamental subjects for the Salvadorans, such as the solution of the crisis of the public health system, or including other sectors in the discussion of its economic proposals. Otherwise, it might be possible that during the next presidential elections the voters might send them another message of rejection.

In the case of the PCN, even if the electoral results have been favorable, there is no doubt that this party will have to demonstrate that it has more political ambitions during the new legislation. On the one hand, it will have to examine their unconditional alliance with ARENA. The official party has paid for some of the mistakes; however, it should not seem odd if this situation turns the other way around in the near future. On the other hand, it is almost certain that the new directors of the COENA will examine several uncomfortable features of their alliance with the PCN.

However, the strongest motivation that the PCN should consider in order to change certain habits inside its ranks is the apparent competition for the third place that the CDU and the PDC are trying to lead. There is no doubt that the CDU could be potentially able to reach a better position –a third place-. This party has gained importance because of its relevant political figures, because they have a prestigious position among the middle class and the urban sectors of the Salvadoran society. It is precisely among these sectors where ARENA and the PCN do not necessarily have a good reputation. Therefore, if this situation is ignored, it could be possible that the PCN will find a few obstacles along the way.

As for the FMLN, the results of the elections and the possible effect that they might have over their political behavior can be interpreted in two different ways. On the one hand, the left-wing party can keep its bold attitude, and lose the notion of reality. They can wrongfully believe that they count with the massive support of the Salvadoran voters. This perspective could turn into an arrogant political attitude. In these circumstances, a certain precipitated attitude could lead the FMLN members to face next year’s elections without considering the importance of the rest of the political and the social sectors.

On the other hand, with a radically different attitude, the left-wing party could show an open-minded behavior. Therefore, it will have to take advantage of its share of power at the congress, in order to present realistic public policies that consider the sensibility of the different sectors. If this were the case, they could reach a better position to discuss a wide alliance with the different productive sectors of the country, which are unhappy with the political and the economic direction encouraged by ARENA. In these circumstances, the FMLN would be in a better condition to resolve the critical problems of the society.

Politics and the society: an insurmountable gap

The gap that separates the dynamics of the Salvadoran political system from the dynamics of the society has become wider over the last years. And this is not a supposition, to judge by the suspenseful electoral process. During the campaign, the political parties and its candidates did everything they could with their propaganda to achieve a specific goal: to gain most of the positions at both the congress and the municipalities. Because of this search for power, the most urgent problems of the society (health, corruption, unemployment, the agricultural crisis, the civilian security, and violence, among other issues) received a rather superficial treatment, and this is reflected in the candidates’ proposals.

We could ask ourselves, once the elections are over, if the candidates covered their eyes before the daily problems of the Salvadorans. Or is it that, even if they knew about it, they did not have the necessary accuracy as to articulate a realistic proposal? Did they only pretend that they understood the problems when they promised to resolve them? An affirmative answer to this question seems to illustrate the actions of most candidates. That is why it is necessary to wonder about the social context of the last elections, and explore what will be the challenges that the elected candidates will have to face, according to their attributions and responsibilities.

The question about the social context fundamentally depends on the viewpoint used to formulate it. This article will consider the different campaigns, which -without a doubt- had an influence on the decision of the voters. One of the perspectives sustained that the Salvadoran society is going through a privileged moment of its history, because El Salvador had never been so close to the negotiation of a trade agreement with the most powerful country of the world.

Following this idea, the most critical social, economic, and political problems of the country have been artificially incorporated into the illusion to sign a free trade agreement with the United States. Once the agreement in question is taken care of –the leaders seem to promise- progress will inevitably come along. That is why any expression of pessimism or any critics against the present model will be discarded under the charges of sedition and terrorism.

According to this perspective, the privatizations, the dollarization, and the commercial openness would be transformed into an improvement in the lives of the Salvadoran people. During the last fifteen years –everyone has heard this through an interview before- the salaries have increased, the unemployment level has been reduced as well as the illiteracy levels, and the Salvadorans have increased their purchasing power. ARENA and the private business companies have been the apologists of this version, which could be called “official”.

A second perspective, supported by the news media, is very similar to the first one. The largest news media companies did not skimp on ink to reflect the vision that came from the official circles. Except for a few journalistic investigations that did compromise the actions of some governmental officials, the most important news media did not cover the information in an impartial way, in order to favor the political project of the right-wing sector. Most of the news media became the display window of the official discourse. That is the interpretation that the media made about the society.

The third and the last perspective comes from the civil society, especially from the middle and the working classes –since these are the social sectors that have suffered most of the effects of the governmental policies-. According to this vision, the enormous problems that the Salvadorans suffer respond to the abominable political, social, environmental, and economic administration of the last fifteen years. Because of this situation, the structural problems such as violence, poverty, corruption, and unemployment, far from improving, have become worse. The left wing has taken a relative advantage of this interpretation –which could seem as the “popular” one- in order to get a favorable number of votes during the elections.

In summary, through this last version, the most critical problems of the society are the following:
- A deficient productive apparatus and a poor competitiveness make it impossible for El Salvador to participate in the international market.
- The serious economic deterioration of the rural areas, in response to the separation of the Salvadoran economic axis –the financial, the industrial, and the agricultural sectors-, has sunken the agricultural activity into a deep crisis.
- The passive attitude to resolve the crisis of the public health system. The Salvadoran Institute of Social Security has been on strike for almost six months.
- The coffee-growing haciendas are going through a tragic situation, which is the result of the international crisis of this product. The territorial gaps between the urban and the rural areas have increasingly deteriorated the life standards of the inhabitants. Presently, there are no policies at sight that might neutralize this problem.
- The political situation is ambiguous but evident. The corruption inside the state has not disappeared from the Salvadoran political system, even if the official sectors do not admit it at both the national and the international forums. The abstention level (which reached a 58%) would be the citizens’ reaction to the worn-out Salvadoran political class.

The members of the political parties cannot say that they ignore the most critical problems of the society. Their proposals show a certain awareness of the situation. The members of ARENA, for instance, said that delinquency, the stagnation of the economy, and unemployment were the most critical problems of the society. They made a bet for the reinforcement of the penal laws, the diversification of the agricultural activities, the examination of the health system –without the privatization of it?- and the attraction of the foreign investments, in order to establish a free trade agreement with the United States.

According to the members of the FMLN, the working class sector would improve its life standards if the state encourages a struggle against privatization. They also spoke about the need to have a free access to the public services; the recuperation of the monetary policy; a responsible tax reform; the elimination of the Value Added Tax from the basic food basket, from medications, and from the agricultural supplies, among other issues.

Now that the elections are over, it would be necessary to examine and discuss the viability of these proposals, considering the challenges that the Salvadoran population has to face at present. The elected candidates should not forget about the promises they made during the campaign. Only if they remember to accomplish their proposals, the voters will be able to know if they made a wise choice. In any case, a new electoral event is near, and the results will depend –to begin with- on this moment.