The human side of the war

Several lessons from the elections

It seems that the results of the March 16th elections are almost official by now. Contrary to what some people thought during the last week –based on an 85% of the results presented by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE, in Spanish)-, the most important political parties have won new votes, and the number of voters increased. This article will focus on the analysis of the elections and the results.

In the first place, the performance of the TSE has not been efficient. During the electoral campaign, it was not able to control the political parties. In spite of the flagrant violations of the electoral law, the TSE seemed to ignore what to do in a situation like this one. The magistrates overlooked the illegal behavior of the parties. They sent a very confusing signal about their disposition to contribute with the reinforcement of the state of rights in this country.

On the other hand, the TSE did not play an efficient role during the electoral process. A disorganized environment ruled in that institution during and after the elections. Many independent observers reported several serious problems at the voting centers. These facilities were not open and ready on time due to a lack of the necessary materials. The lack of coordination was also evident, and the personnel were not prepared to accomplish their tasks. Finally, several hours after the elections, the electoral authorities were not able to communicate the results, as they had promised they would. The uncertainty lasted for over a week. In a word, it can be said that the organization of these elections was a disaster of enormous proportions.

In reference to the specific results, the performance of the parties reflects how questionable the public opinion polls can be, since an increase on the percentage of abstention was predicted. Even if we cannot talk about a spectacular increase on the number of voters, there is no doubt that a considerable amount of people participated in the elections. In fact, the parties were able to mobilize a larger number of voters if the amount is compared with those who voted during the elections of 2000. However, the results do not allow us yet to speak about the fact that the Salvadorans have believed once again in the words of the politicians. However, it is interesting to notice that the public opinion polls were not accurate enough about this issue. The opinion polls were not able to appreciate the enormous mobilization that the different parties had.

The mistake is not only related to the number of voters, it is also connected with the projections of the results. All of the opinion polls saw in the elections a new edition of the hegemony that ARENA has over the country’s political life. However, the FMLN refuted all of the speculations. It did not only keep the same number of congressmen that it did during the elections of 2000 –against all odds-, but it also took over the first place that ARENA had occupied, as far as the electoral support they received was concerned. The last figures revealed by the electoral institution show more than 50,000 new voters in favor of this organization. If the electoral performance of the renovators is considered –the best among the six parties that will no longer belong to the TSE-, combined with the number of votes for the left wing that emigrated with the defection of the present Mayor of San Salvador, the magnitude of the FMLN’s exploits can be appreciated better from this perspective.

All of those who thought that the expulsion of both the renovators and Hector Silva from the FMLN would make the party crumble were astonished before the results. This is how the FMLN shows that it is able to keep the faithful voters and that it can also manage to get the votes of a larger number of people (the percentage of voters was higher than the one of the year 2000). For those who had their doubts about the roots and the strength of the “old” left-wing party, these elections do refute the unfounded assertions. In addition, it is highly probable that the positive results contribute to reduce the schisms and the divisions inside the FMLN. The potential death of an emerging political career might be an incentive powerful enough to consolidate the internal coherence of this political institution.

ARENA, on the other hand -despite the fact that the members of this party also have an increasing number of faithful followers-, it has been overshadowed by the FMLN. The official party now tastes the bitterness of an electoral defeat. None of the most popular candidates –Evelyn Jacir or Rodrigo Avila- were able to prevent the party of the businessmen from going downhill. They all crashed with the biting reality, because the citizenry is extremely unhappy with their administration. Even if the popular sympathy for some of their political figures somehow embraced the large number of votes for ARENA, that was not enough to cover-up a generalized failure.

In reference to the former considerations, the question is how to explain the electoral results of March 16th? For several observers, the recurring reasons for the defeat of the official party have been the questionable conduction of the Flores administration, the President’s arrogance and his insensitiveness. The fact that ARENA did not win the elections means that the Salvadoran population is punishing this party for its questionable performance. There is no doubt that this interpretation of the facts discredits the performance of the FMLN. The results could only be explained through the debacle of the official party. That is why the issues connected with the integrity of the parties are somehow overlooked, according to several authors.

The Salvadoran population is definitively unhappy with the country’s political performance, particularly with the performance of the official party. A portion of the negative results of this party must be interpreted through this premise. The logic of politics also has to do with the way the voters punish those politicians who were unable to pay attention to their most urgent problems. In this sense, these ideas partially explain the defeat of ARENA.

However, in spite of how clever the former idea can be, it is necessary to consider the negative evaluation about the performance of the FMLN. Such negative opinions discard the increasing sympathy and credibility for the FMLN. And what is even worse, there is a thesis according to which the left-wing party is still not a credible option for the Salvadoran population. Nevertheless, the results of the elections refute such considerations. The FMLN has been growing –according to its leaders- since this party participated for the first time, in 1994, in the free elections.

An analysis that systematically denies the advance of the FMLN is clearly sponsored by the figureheads of ARENA, who are always willing to stigmatize the image of the left-wing leaders and scare the population. These negative comments should encourage the FMLN to become more open and make an improved effort to win the credibility of a larger number of Salvadorans. This is without a doubt the most important task that the FMLN has to accomplish, in order to be prepared for the presidential elections.

The overflow effect: An economic fallacy?

During the last three decades, the Salvadoran economy has gone through a number of substantial changes. El Salvador made a transition from an economic model that fundamentally depended on the agricultural exportation of basic products to a model based on the development of services. Here is where the financial sector has considerably developed during the last twenty years. This process of economic transformation is important because the country has also suffered quite a few important social transformations.

During the seventies and the eighties, both the GNP and the agricultural growth rates were having a similar behavior (1975-1980). However, nowadays the agricultural sector is not playing a key role in relation to the GNP. In other words, the development of the agricultural sector is no longer the key factor of the Salvadoran economy. This does not mean that agriculture is not an important factor of the society, especially because it is clear that the production of coffee, cotton and sugar cane was once the center of the economic activity.

During the nineties, the national economy goes through a number of structural transformations. Throughout this decade, the ARENA administration transforms the direction of the economy. During this period, the banking system, the telecommunication services, and the distribution of electric energy were privatized. There is also a fiscal policy, which restructured the taxation system, as well as a commercial policy, which immediately opened the national productive apparatus to the external commerce.

Nowadays we have an economy that depends from the remittances, from a foreign currency, and we are about to establish a free trade agreement with the United States. The government believes that the creation of maquilas and that the consolidation of the process of commercial openness will become a source of employment. It is important to question what has been the impact of all the measures implemented by the government on the economic situation of the Salvadoran population.

The structural transformation of the economy has created a series of complicated mechanisms to generate an economic and a social development. Presently, the agricultural sector receives a 7% of the credits granted by the banking system. On the other hand, the economic activities connected with commerce and services receive about 40% of the credits. To actually improve the national economy, it would be necessary to generate wealth, and this can only be achieved by encouraging the agricultural sector and the manufacturing activities, since these are the factors that can “produce” –in the strict sense of the word-.

The Salvadoran economy is now even more vulnerable to the external changes because of the immediate commercial openness encouraged by the Executive power. There are quite a few business companies that have been harmed by the accelerated process of commercial openness. The most affected ones are the small and the medium companies, which have faced a great deal of difficulties in order to reach an adequate development. Many of these companies are in no condition to participate in a free trade agreement with the United States. In addition, there are certain sectors, such as the agricultural one, which are very vulnerable to the commercial openness. No one ever really listened to these sectors; no one consulted them when the free trade opening process began.

The privatization process of the state’s assets has increased the price of the electric energy and the telecommunication services. An actual competition between the distributors has never existed. The same privatization process generated captive markets, and these markets do not allow a reduction of the prices. In addition, the SIGET has not regulated the commercial behavior of the aforementioned companies in a strict way.

These economic reforms and several public policies of the government have not been effective enough to respond to the most important needs of the Salvadoran population. The reforms have converged in a narrow economy for most of the families. A relative success in the macroeconomic environment that the government mentions, such as the stability of the prices and the low interest’s rates, can be explained through a slow economic growth. The fluctuations do not respond to considerable variables because the fundamental agents of the economy, the families and the companies are not able to have an adequate development. Therefore, the positive vision of the economic direction that the government has is very different from the perception that the Salvadoran families have about their everyday life.

The official statistics show how incongruent it would be to compare the official information with the reality of the population. The governmental thermometer is to cold because it hides its responsibilities. This means that in order to reach a certain level of development, it would be enough to protect the macroeconomic stability and meet the requirement s of the neoliberal laissez faire demanded by the international financial organisms. However, the relative macroeconomic good health does not seem to have any contact with the microeconomic environment. The welfare of the Salvadoran situation does not seem to improve.

The statistics that reflect the former paradigm are, for instance, connected with poverty. According to the information of the General Direction of Statistics and Census (DIGESTYC, in Spanish) –and based on the Survey of Homes and Multiple Purposes (EHPM)- the levels of poverty in general have continuously decreased, especially during the period in which ARENA took over the presidency in 1989. In addition, according to the Foundation for the Economic and the Social Development (FUSADES) during the last five years the price of the basic food basket dropped by 6%. The opinion of several economists and the citizenry in general were very different from the official information.

The superficially analyzed information could be attractive but deceitful. To capture with precision a phenomenon such as poverty is a critical aspect, since the methodologies and the measures to describe it are not strong enough to understand the multiple dimensions of poverty.

It is necessary to remember that in the present circumstances, those who live under the line of poverty are not able to purchase the basic food basket, and those who live in a relative poverty are the people who can only purchase the basic food basket.
This means that the lines of poverty are built over the foundations of the basic food basket. However, here is where we find the main problem. According to the DIGESTYC, the basic food basket is defined as “the group of the essential amount of products –which provide energy and proteins- to satisfy the nutritional needs of the average individual”.

However, poverty cannot be measured only by the nutritional needs of an individual. There are a series of factors that characterize the poverty issue, such as the access to the health services, housing, education, and recreation, among other essential needs. This basic food basket does not provide the individuals with the necessary amount of calories (a person actually needs more than 2,200 calories to survive in an environment where hard work is required).

In addition, there is another fallacy. The basic food basket might cost 6% less than it did five years ago and, therefore, the line of poverty will move and indicate that the level of poverty has been reduced, however, this is a questionable topic.

According to FUSADES, the reasons to consider the reduction of the poverty levels are:
- The fall of the international prices of the basic grains
- The absence of natural disasters
- The arrival of the foreign competitors
However, it does not mention the fact that the fall of the real prices paid to the agricultural producers reflects a substantial loss in the purchasing power of those producers.

How positive is the reduction of the basic food basket’s price if the people’s purchasing power has been reduced as well?

According to what the director of the Foundation for Development (FUNDE) said, Roberto Rubio, it would be necessary to examine the methodology employed to measure what happened to the value of the basic food basket, since the cost of life has increased in general terms. The prices were increased by the dollarization process, and the sectors that live in poverty are more affected by this problem than any other sector.

It can be said that the economic reality of El Salvador is far from being healthy, contrary to what the governmental spokespeople affirm. In this sense, the Salvadoran families have the last word to assert if the country has found the way to reach a real social and an economic development.