The change of the FMLN

The center is suffocating itself

The political parties that belong to the center –the CDU, the PDC and the Civilian Initiative- are in the middle of an authentic race against time. Only a few months away from the beginning of the electoral campaign, they have not defined yet how will they face the electoral process. Even if the idea of a “center coalition” is frequently present in the discourses of several political leaders, it is still necessary to determine the edges of this alliance, its dimensions, and its objectives. The main challenge for the leaders of these political organizations consists in making their project more visible and convincing the Salvadoran electorate that they are better than ARENA and the FMLN.

During the last municipal elections, the parties of the center reached approximately 16% and 12% of the votes, respectively. This result was not encouraging for the ambitions of the leaders. They had sold the idea that they were about to obtain historical results that would enable them to become the third political force of the country, a place that the PCN presently occupies. Such a result would launch their political career, and the confrontational logic between ARENA and the FMLN would disappear. After the elections, those dreams did not come true.

However, despite the adversity and the deception for making the wrong analysis about the intentions of the Salvadorans, the leaders of the parties of the center insist on their dream about occupying a privileged position inside the national political life. An editorialist from La Prensa Grafica sustained, on June 30th, that the actual problem of the parties from the center is that “they have many leaders, but their foundations are weak, and that is always the trap for the possible understandings”. On the other hand, the same source mentioned that “the center has many different lines, and it will be difficult to integrate them all. Even if they managed to become a coalition in order to present a common candidacy, the problem of a single program would be very complex”.

Beyond the deceiving electoral results and the tight schedules of the leaders from the center (a project under construction), it would be convenient to reflect over their actual political possibilities in the present situation. This article will focus on that reflection. It will also try to measure the magnitude of its possibilities in the light of the last political events.

The aspirations of the center
The politicians have widely discussed the importance of encouraging the option of the central forces inside the country’s political life. After the Peace Accords were signed, the discussion about this issue gained importance. Ruben Zamora, one of the present supporters of the “coalition of the central parties” project, sustains that “the center has to carry the new political project that the Peace Accords sustain”. The supporters of this project intend to end with the endemic confrontation between the right and the left wing. That dispute has characterized the country’s political life at least during the last 30 years.

That is why, according to Zamora, they aspire to “design an alternative plan, in order to have a choice beyond the vulgar Neoliberalism practiced by the right wing (ARENA), and the growing populist radicalism that the attitude of the FMLN projects. To build a nucleus of alternative positions, able to attack the real problems of the nation is a task that keeps gaining importance. However, this is only legitimate if they are aware that these approaches should be the result of an agreement that must include every force”. This task cannot be performed if the country does not have a different kind of leadership. A democratic leadership compromised with the values and the participation of the civil society.

It is also necessary to find the right political vehicle, in order to reach these goals. This is what Zamora calls “the capacity to create a political alternative able to gain power through the elections, through the choice of the majority”. That is quite a task, without a doubt, in the context of an accurate polarization, which can be basically defined as a natural hostility against any project created by the center.

The central coalition promoted by the politicians who represent the IC, the CDU, the PDC, and other former activists from the left wing, intend to overcome all of the difficulties that have been mentioned in this article. In addition, their spokespeople believe that, in the present situation, they have one of a kind opportunity to make their political project viable. For them, moderation is the fashionable expression nowadays. However, from now on, it is necessary to reflect over the nature of the close encounters of the center. It is also necessary to wonder about how convincing their project can be for the Salvadorans, in order to know if the audacity that the members of the center show will be enough to perform a decent role in the national political confrontation.

The possibilities of the center: the dreams and the reality
The reference to the electoral performance of the parties that belong to the political center does not allow us to predict if their position will improve after the 2004 presidential elections. That might be why the coordinator of the FMLN declared that his party guarantees the political changes, and not the parties from the center. He said: “I think that the parties from the center are looking for a way to survive inside the political field”. In other words, his advice is that the leaders of the central coalition take a look at their electoral results. Such a crude consideration deserves, however, a much deeper interpretation. Even if it is true that, at a first glance, the results of the last elections do not advice us to take the aspirations of the leaders of these parties seriously, it would be necessary to evaluate the parameters of their enthusiasm.

The first argument of the leaders from the center, to predict a good performance during the next presidential elections, is that the Salvadoran population needs to have a different political administration. However, they would not be willing to vote for the alternative presented by the FMLN, because of its leaders’ orthodoxy and their inflexibility to agree with the rest of the political actors. Such analysis is supposed to be based on the public opinion polls, which would not approve of the postulation of historical left-wing leaders like Schafik Handal.

However, despite the apparent infallible logic of this argument, it is clear that it is not based on any empiric evidence. These are pure speculations and the reflection of the desires of the leaders from the center. It would also be necessary to consider that, according to the result of the same opinion polls, despite the generalized disapproval that many Salvadorans show for the probable candidates of the FMLN, many keep thinking that they would vote for this party during the next presidential elections. In any case, no one can think that an internal division of the FMLN would take place once more, as it did in 1999. In addition, the rejection of the candidate selected by the FMLN does not necessarily have to favor the parties from the center, which is formed by a heterogeneous group that does not have a clear political proposal.

The other element that the leaders of the center use to believe in their promising political future is the notorious role that they played in the solution of the strike of the public health system. The idea was that with this performance the Salvadoran population would realize that the only possible way to resolve the problems of the country is to reach an agreement between the different political actors. By vocation, both extremes represented by ARENA and the FMLN are not able to propitiate such understanding.

Once again, the argument sounds very convincing. Even if no one can deny the effect and the importance that the media gave to the performance of the leaders from the center to resolve the social security crisis, that is not enough to assure their success in the next presidential elections.

In summary, several people think that the CDU and the PDC will support each other along with the Civilian Initiative Party (IC), in order to make their political project a viable proposal. The CDU and the IC would take advantage of the prestige they have in the middle class sector and the urban areas; while the PDC would contribute with is organizational net connected with the whole country. This argumentation forgets, once again, that none of these political organizations was able to attract the sectors that could have identified themselves with their political cause. The research about the concentration of the urban and the rural voters, does not seem to favor the CDU-IC or the PDC, even if the votes obtained by these parties mostly come from the aforementioned sectors.

On the other hand, it is necessary to see how compatible these political actors are, and how does the population see this coalition. It is clear that the CDU and the IC define themselves as the left-center. While, in the case of the PDC, ever since the end of the armed conflict it has been struggling with its ideological location. The different schisms between its ranks did not materialize the consolidation of a left-center party, but a party clearly controlled by the right wing. This is evident because of several statements made by its leader Rodolfo Parker. Can we expect a lasting coalition from such different elements? This is the question that the leaders should ask themselves. Many seem to agree with the idea that the good will of the leaders will be enough to lead the construction of a political center. That is nothing but an illusion.

In the first place, the political alliances are consolidated over a vision of the world and a pragmatic coincidence. It would be difficult to talk about the convergence of the left-center with the PDC. In addition, the alliances share the power. Nowadays, the PDC has more electoral strength than the aforementioned political parties (those that would participate in the alliance). However, these parties seem to believe that they want to impose a solution for the conflicts that they have analyzed. Will the leaders of the PDC accept it? Or, in case that the General Secretary of the Christian Democracy manages to convince everyone of his point of view, will the Salvadorans think that their proposal is an actual transformation project? These are a few dilemmas that the central block (still under construction) will have to face.

The commercial deficit and the competitiveness

One of the characteristic features of the official party since 1989 is the encouragement of the commercial openness process. This process initially reduced the tariffs in an abrupt manner. This action affected a considerable part of the national producers, who were once protected by the country’s tariff system. Ever since then, an excessive amount of merchandise has been imported from other countries. It would be enough to go to a supermarket or to a mall and observe the diversity of the new products that daily arrive to the national market.

With the present government, the strategy remains the same. Flores has ratified many commercial agreements. He seems to be convinced that the development that the country needs can only be achieved through this kind of agreements. In this sense, during his administration, many commercial agreements have been improved and ratified with countries that have a tremendous productive capacity. An agreement was established with Mexico during 2001. A commercial agreement was also ratified with Chile, and it became effective in June of 2002. Presently, most of the efforts of the Executive are looking forward to establish a free trade agreement with the United States.

This process of commercial openness allows the market to count with products that have a better quality; however, the national production has been shaken by this fact. There are several companies that are not able to compete with the gigantic transnational corporations that offer their products in our markets. Many of the affected sectors are characterized by the fact that they provide a considerable part of the Salvadoran families with an income and employment. Given this situation, it is important to acknowledge that the process of commercial openness has not only generated a strong economic impact, but a social one as well.

As for the economic field, the large amount of foreign products has led the country to a severe commercial deficit. Year after year, the commercial gap grows, since the exportation income is not enough to pay for the cost of the importation. It is important to notice that since 1989, the gap between the importation and the exportation grew in a disproportionate manner. Obviously, this is related with the former economic model. The industrialization model protected the local market from those “unnecessary” imports.

During the last decade, the commercial balance grew in absolute terms by $1,320 million. This means that the commercial deficit was increased by 200%. However, the stability of the regular account was fundamentally achieved through the remittances sent by the Salvadorans who live abroad. Today, the situation remains the same. In other words, a good part of what is spent on the imported products available in the local market comes from the family remittances.

During the last decade, the economy became more open. The addition of the level of importation and exportation, as a proportion of the GNP, grew substantially. In 1990, the country’s commercial transactions with the world represented a 36.9% of the GNP. By the end of the decade, the level of openness of the economy was at 70.3%. This tendency became stronger after the Peace Accords were signed, since the economic agents perceived a higher level of social and political stability.

Recently, this commercial gap has eventually stopped in a slight manner. The slow rhythm of the American economy, which is the main foreign market for the Salvadoran products, has had an influence on the behavior of the commercial deficit, during the last years. In this sense, the situational stability of the regular account is greatly determined by the behavior of the American economy.

As for the commercial relations with Mexico, the commercial deficit of 1999 had a value of $221,303. In 2001 the commercial deficit increased to $287,756. In other words, during this period, the commercial deficit increased by 30% in relation with Mexico. The highest increase was registered in 2001, since the Free Trade Agreement with Mexico took effect during that year. In reference to the relation with the United States, the commercial deficit of the aforementioned years has been invariable. In 1998, the commercial deficit of the relations with that country was valued in $584,286. In 2001, it increased and it was valued in $588,654. As it can be noticed, a growth of less than 1% took place during those four years.

For a government that makes a bet for the economic stability, it is important to implement a set of measures aimed to reduce the growth rate of the commercial deficit. Although the government is making a series of efforts to promote the exportation activities, it is necessary to consider that the competitiveness levels that characterize many of the national companies are very low if compared with the international competition. It seems as if many of the Salvadoran industries are still not ready to compete with the prices and the quality of the international markets.

In regard to the globalization process, do the Salvadoran companies have a good level of competitiveness? For the existence of a real national productive apparatus it is necessary to have not only good microeconomic conditions inside the companies, but also a macroeconomic stability and an efficient institutional performance. From this perspective, the competitiveness of a country is not only based in the internal aspects of a company, but in an efficient institutional structure capable to contribute with an adequate performance.

The recent studies indicate that despite certain substantial improvements inside the business companies, which is necessary to increase their competitiveness, their performance is still not acceptable. Particularly, the micro and the small business companies are the ones that have major difficulties to overcome this kind of obstacles since they lack the basic elements to improve their competitiveness. The aspects such as technology, the access to the quality products, the contact with the suppliers, the availability of qualified labor, among other things, are some of the obstacles that stand in the way.

In spite of those difficulties inside the business companies, the most significant obstacles can be noticed inside several institutional aspects of the state. In this sense, the main obstacles are security and the performance of the judicial system. In this context, it is necessary that the government try to strengthen the institutional dimension of the state with the objective to favor the diverse economic aspects of the country.