The authoritarian administrations versus the democratization process

Saca’s unsuccessful victory

The internal selection process of the presidential candidate of AARENA ended on July 13th. There were not any unpleasant surprises. As it was expected, Elias Antonio Saca has been chosen to fight for the presidency of the republic during the 2004 elections, in March. The leaders of ARENA gathered at the office of the party in San Salvador to present the chosen one. “Unity” was the word that they repeated. In addition, they celebrated this event as the maximum expression of democracy that El Salvador will ever know. In the following pages, this article will reflect over the general situation of this party, and what could be expected during the next electoral campaign.

The members of ARENA are celebrating, and they say that the voters will acknowledge their loyalty and their dedication to El Salvador with another five years in the Presidential House. Saca says that his compromise with ARENA is “to win the 2004 presidential elections with a united political party. I shall achieve that connection together with the leaders and the structures of the party in order to accomplish a victorious end. I will elaborate a governmental plan with all of the country’s sectors and other sectors that we will add in order to listen to the majority. My compromise is to be an achieving president”. Will an enthusiastic attitude be enough to convince the Salvadorans? Saca responds in a positive manner, believing in the support of his party’s foundations.

The chorus that he wants to see in the candidate’s internal selection process, an example of unity, easily forgets that during the process many “icons” lost their prestige. Someone will say that Calderon Sol attended to the presentation that took place on Sunday, and that he was publicly congratulated for stepping aside in favor of a “fresher figure”. Others will say that the absence of Mauricio Sandoval was not that important because he was never a guest of honor at the tables of ARENA. No one will give much importance to the fact that the key role given to Quintanilla Schmidt, by the way, an excellent statesman –according to him- who prefers to be right even if he is not elected president.

As unlikely as it might seem –according to the official propaganda-, in less than six months, ARENA went from being a party of confronted sectors to a party that is united in a tight manner. The aspiring candidates for the presidency were the representatives of the sectors that felt disappointed and tired from the prevailing linearity, and then became the gentle lambs willing to sacrifice themselves over the altar of the party’s unity. What a curious lineage is this one, the hard core nationalists that swear to defend the interests of El Salvador above all things.

However, what the apologists of ARENA do not seem to be able to explain is the existing fear for the negotiations behind closed doors, for the pressures to desist, or for the humiliation that the followers of Antonio Saca have had to endure. There is no doubt that ARENA managed, during the terms established by its leaders, to present their presidential candidate without a significant public protest of those who were defeated. ARENA has not characterized itself for the participation of its foundations. The news media have never been the debate areas for the decisions of the leaders, unless the plan of the leaders fails. Therefore, in order to know if the whole party actually agreed to choose Saca as its presidential candidate, we will have to wait for the electoral results. Only an eventual electoral defeat will throw some light over what really happened in this “election”.

Some people say that the process has been perfectly transparent, and that it has respected the democratic principles. A comical leader from ARENA, Mario Acosta Oertel, thinks that the process of rising hands to make a choice is absolutely normal. He thinks that such process is a manly way of making a choice that has no precedents. The former Minister of Internal Affairs declares that he who is capable of publicly raising his hand in order to support a candidate is an exceptional person. What this former official forgot to propose is that during the next presidential elections the people should vote by rising their hands. It is evident that this process is less insulting if compared with the meetings behind closed doors of the COENA, where the business elite decided who was the candidate. However, that is not enough to speak about an internal democracy and about an exemplar participation process inside the Salvadoran political parties.

The issue about the representative presence of the “great arena electors” has not been discussed either. To say that the foundations elected Saca as the candidate, it would be necessary to check the names of those who were allowed to vote. According to what has been written in the pages of the newspapers, the COENA allowed approximately 2,071 people to participate in the proclamation of the candidate. Out of the 2071 people, 2023 voted in favor of Antonio Saca. These people who come from the structure of the departments and the municipalities, and from the eight sectors that belong to ARENA said that they were “voting” in the name of the party’s foundations, some 100,000 sympathizers. This is an odd conception of democracy. It turns out that the cupola of the party refers to the delegates that it previously chose in the name of the foundations as “representatives”.

This singular conception of the democratic exercise that the leaders of ARENA have could come from two different sources. Probably, these leaders do not exactly understand what does a participation process mean, or what is the sense of democratic openness for a party. This could be a dangerous attitude for the politicians who intend to set themselves up as the paradigms of democracy. However, in any case, that would not be an irremediable problem as long as they have the sincere intention to grow inside a democratically open environment. This interpretation, at times naive and quite acquiescent, of the democratic tradition of ARENA, should be able to match with the history of the democratic consolidation of the Salvadoran society. The openness process of the political parties would eventually evolve at the same time that the society gains maturity and has more trust in the participation exercises of the collectivity.

However, what seems odd is the deliberate will to deceive that several ARENA leaders show. To say that this first exercise of selection of the presidential candidate has been the first step towards a democratic openness would be the logical thing to do. In addition, a declaration as this one would help the foundations, because this name is used to make the decisions of the parties. That is how the members of the party’s foundations could aspire to be included in the future when it comes to make the decisions inside the party. Even Vice-President Quintanilla has admitted the limitations of the process. He accepts that the overwhelming defeat should be explained with the voting system. “We are not used to –referring to the ‘important voters’ from ARENA- a public vote. We are concerned about what others will say if I vote differently from others. This could explain the overwhelming results, even after we received signals of sympathy and the comments of certain people who said that they might vote for Carlos Quintanilla. That is why this voting system was imposed”.

In summary, the triumph of Antonio Saca is an unsuccessful victory against a contender that was not very important. The barons of the party had decided in advance who the candidate would be. They invented the internal election process as a mechanism to promote the official party and improve their image. The news media perfectly performed this task and they literally followed the script. The final objective was to make it seem as if the party was going through a renovation process. Will this media strategy be enough to remain at the head of the Executive power? The Salvadoran population will answer this question in eight months.

The deceiving negotiations of the ALCA

During the last few days, the vice-ministers of economy of the nations that participate in the construction of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (ALCA, in Spanish) were reunited in El Salvador. As it always happens in this kind of meetings, a series of discussions took place about the economic issues connected with the international commerce. One of the most important postures has to do with the fact that the United States refuses to reduce the subsidies of the agricultural sector. Brazil opposes to an agreement of this kind due to the negative influence that it might have on the South American economy.

The countries that oppose to an accelerated ratification of the commercial agreement are those that form the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR, in Spanish). According to Brazil, the economic leader of the MERCOSUR, the position of the United States about the issue of the agricultural subsidies has placed different obstacles for the negotiations of the investments and the intellectual property, which is a very important factor for the Americans. This is how Brazil and the United States have become part of a process where the mediation of forces does not allow them to reach a substantial advance in the negotiations.

These and other minor disagreements have led both countries to seriously reconsider the achievements that have been reached in the construction process of the ALCA. Before the constitution of a free trade area in the region, there are a couple of postures that the leaders of these countries have taken. On the one hand, there are those who believe that an agreement of this nature is the best measure to develop the economies inside a global world. Those who have taken this position believe that this process will create, in the end, an important improvement in the life standards of all the inhabitants of the region.

On the other hand, there is a cautious posture. Those who feel this way consider that free trade is good as long as it can take place in a context of mutual benefits when it comes to ratify the agreement. In order to reach this goal, it is necessary to realize that there are economic differences between the participating countries. It is necessary to be aware about the existence of the small productive structures that are not capable to handle an invasion of foreign products.

In this context, it is important to ask what is the position of El Salvador. The answer is obvious. The Flores administration has been constantly working to get closer to the Americans. There is nothing wrong with that. However, it is important that the government considers that such actions could bring economic consequences: the social and the political results of the trade agreements.

It is interesting to notice that the countries that are part of the MERCOSUR know that before creating the ALCA they should have a specific external policy. During the last days, it has been clear that there is a compromise between the governments of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay and that the regional integration is a priority before the ALCA. This unity is giving a headache to the American directors of the external trade.

The countries that form Central America have a small productive structure and are not considered that important in the international scene. However, this is a strategic region for the constitution of the ALCA. This fact should lead the Central American leaders to consider the relevant position that they have together before the United States in the commercial negotiation process. However, during the negotiation of the CAFTA, it has been evident that there are enormous differences between the countries of the region, starting with the commercial and the territorial disputes. This shows how far the region is to achieve an actual integration.

The construction of the ALCA obeys, among other reasons, to the fact that the United States is convinced, now more than ever, that Europe is becoming an economic giant. The government of the United States has understood that by itself will not be able to face a unified Europe, which as it consolidates it would form the world’s largest regional market. That is why the ALCA is crucial for the North American interests. It would help their markets to grow and keep their traditional economic power, regardless of the economic or the social effects that this could have over the rest of the American continent.

It is important to notice that the economic advances that the European Union has achieved are the result of a long process that began during the 1950’s. Thanks to the efforts made during the last decades, the European nations have managed to achieve an economic integration and are trying to look for a political integration as well. Despite the diverse European culture, the countries of this region have been able to work together in the creation of policies to strengthen the European unity. On the other hand, it can be noticed that the countries of the MERCOSUR have also achieved a certain unity. They admit that they need each other in order to obtain better results in the international scene. In addition, they choose to strengthen their bonds to get more benefits for the region.

The European Union as well as the countries of the MERCOSUR is an economic example of what the Central American region should do. Unfortunately, there already are disagreements at sight. Guatemala chose to commit suicide by easily opening its doors to all of the North American products. The rest of Central America, which has been more cautious, does not wish to go through an immediate invasion of the United States’ merchandise. These differences generate a series of doubts for the economic sectors that are involved in the economies of the Central American countries.

It is important to consider if this economic process will be beneficial for the minor economies, which are more vulnerable to the external fluctuations. The United States wants to establish a free trade agreement with Central America in no more than a year. On the other hand, the United States also wants the ALCA ready for 2005. It seems as if the United States wants it all without losing anything. However, many countries have admitted that there are many obstacles at present for the negotiations, and that is probable that ALCA might not be ready for the pre-established date.

It is necessary that the Central American countries overcome the differences that have generated disloyal actions in relation to the free trade agreement with the United States. They have to understand that only through a consensus they can become part of the international scenery with enough importance as to be taken seriously. In the future, this position will be able to generate a considerable amount of benefits for all of the region’s inhabitants.

In the future, an international process such as this one will have enormous social and economic effects over the countries of the region. That is why it is necessary that the Central American and the Latin American governments, instead of rushing themselves to get a commercial agreement with the United States, take some time to observe the consequences of the accelerated economic process that the North Americans have implemented in the national economies.