The historical background of ARENA

An unqualified opposition?

Ever since Elias Antonio Saca threw himself into the electoral ground, different opinion polls indicate that he will easily win the next election. This article will not try to support or to contradict such projections. On the one hand, six months –the presidential elections will take place in March 2004- is a lot of time and that is why a different tendency could change the present political context. On the other hand, some of the public opinion research companies that have studied the electoral issue have not been very accurate. This article is about examining the causes of this alleged popularity of ARENA as far as the intention to vote for this party is concerned. No one can forget that, not too long ago, this party was considered as the absolute loser of the next elections.

In the first place, it seems that the “Handal effect” has considerably contributed to grant a certain amount of credibility to ARENA, and vice versa. The presidential candidate of the FMLN would be allegedly weakening the image of his party. The lack of sympathy that the FMLN is allegedly experiencing would be directly connected with the generalized perception that sees in Handal an expression of both the political and the ideological orthodoxy that characterized the civil war. Several people interpret that disapproval as the response of the Salvadoran population against the so called communist menace.

ARENA has done everything to be present in the mind of the electorate in a positive manner. President Flores created a strategy to convince the population that his administration is designing credible solutions to resolve the most critical problems. The Anti-Gangs Law is in the middle of this logic, and allows a defensive government to react, because it seemed that this administration was about to become the opposition. Experience has demonstrated that, when the elections approach, a government that loses its initiative and finds itself against the wall defending its decisions, has very little possibilities to persuade the electorate, especially when both the economic and the social situation do not reflect the positive features of this administration.

The candidacy of Antonio Saca brought a breath of fresh air to ARENA. Finally, the party was able to concentrate itself in an aggressive response model before the attacks of the opposition. Saca sells himself as a regular Salvadoran who understands the needs of the population, and at the same time he commits himself to fight against Communism. His strategy is to be a sympathetic candidate, who claims to listen to the social and the economic needs of the population, and who seems to have an open mind beyond the defense of Capitalism. So far, this image seems to be positive for the party and for the results that the business elite’s party expects.

In this context, it is not important to accurately establish an alleged connection between Saca’s humble beginnings and the economic decisions that he will encourage if he wins the elections. What seems to be important is to gain attention over the objectives of the electoral propaganda of ARENA. The objective is to convince the Salvadoran population that anything could be better, except a change that might be empty and which could be the starting point of a social instability and a number of economic disasters. That is why those who lead the official strategy do not only proclaim the incompatibility of Schafik Handal with the prevailing capitalist model, but they also invite the Venezuelan businessmen to tell us about the nightmare that their country is going through because of the Chavez administration. From this moment on, the decision of the voters during the next elections would not have to be based on a conscientious evaluation of the performance of ARENA or on the specific proposals of its candidate, but on the fear for an anti-communist allergic reaction of the business elite.

Even if several opinion polls indicate that the strategy is working, it is not easy to predict if this will work until March. ARENA will have to do better to stay in this line. In addition, it will have to deal with the credibility problem of a party that usually promises to improve the country’s situation during the campaigns, and that brings back to life the Communist spectrum to defend their need to remain in the Executive power. Their strategy has to prove its effectiveness either with a specific proposal or with positive changes in the lives of the citizenry.

ARENA is trying to make it through the present electoral context, and the opposition has the responsibility to deal with an eventual triumph of the former. It is important to wonder how did ARENA go from a languid position in the opinion polls to a spectacular revival of its image, in spite of its old-fashioned messages and the mediocrity of its candidate. Whoever feels tempted to connect this issue with the campaign of terror portrayed by ARENA, or the “sympathetic” face that Antonio Saca shows, would have to wonder why most of the population keeps thinking that a change in the political administration of the country would be the best way to resolve the society’s problems.

The FMLN is also partially responsible for this situation, especially because of the results of the aforementioned opinion polls that reveal what are the intentions of the electorate. The left-wing party has not been able to make the electorate feel confident, or to offer them a solid proposal to make the desired changes in the country’s political life. If the leaders of the FMLN intend to avoid an electoral debacle identical to the one that took place in 1999, they have to face this problem. Once they realize that they have not chosen the right candidate for this political context, they have to convince the Salvadoran population that it is still possible to make some changes.

The incapacity of the FMLN to put an end to the image game played by ARENA is also an endemic attitude of the country’s entire political opposition. It would be convenient to realize that ARENA has played a leading role in the worst corruption scandals of its history as a party. They are at the top of the opinion polls in the precise moment when the names of its most prominent members are connected with the current corruption scandals. The easiest conclusion would be to think that the relation of the electorate with ARENA is so emotional that they are willing to forgive such “venial sins”, when what actually happens is that the opposition has not been able to convince the electorate that they can improve the administration of the public assets.

In this case, even if ARENA has counted with the support of a generally benevolent press, that handles the corruption cases with silk gloves when these cases involve the participation of the high governmental circles, there is no doubt about the evident incompetence of the opposition, when it comes to unmask the intentions of the official party. The corruption cases in the ANDA and in the Social Security System, in which several prominent members of the government are allegedly involved, have to do with the misappropriation of the public funds. This is an example of the little capacity that the opposition has to unmask these problems. They have not even been able to control the Legislative Assembly in order to investigate what really happened in these cases. That is why those who reach the conclusion that the opposition is the best ally of the official party are not that far away from the truth in their analysis.

The economy in the pre-electoral campaign

Face to face with the elections of the next year, the presidential candidate of ARENA, Antonio Saca, has constantly appeared in the news media, trying to portray a positive image of his party. On the other hand, the FMLN is trying to persuade the population about the need to change the course of the national political life. In general terms, these are the characteristics of the pre-electoral context. Nevertheless, what the society needs is a serious approach to the country’s most critical problems. The incipient electoral debate seems to evade those problems and focus on the insipid issues.

The arrangements for the presidential campaign
When the municipal and le legislative elections came to an end, the political parties began to get interested in the presidential elections of 2004. At the time, the political parties were discussing the names of those who would run for president. The political debate began here. The political actors started to talk about the characteristics of the economic plans that could be established by the most important parties. They discussed the “model” or the political and the economic “system” that could be implemented by the left wing, or if the official party would make some changes to the present economic model in order to win the elections.

Unfortunately, these debates were sterile. By focusing too much on theoretical concepts, such as the models or the economic systems, the politicians run the risk of overlooking the discussion of the actual problems. This debate about systems and models became an ideological fight between the “model” of Capitalist “freedoms” that the official party would represent, and the alleged “Socialist system” of the left wing. In this case, the debate also overlooked the most urgent social problems.

Presently, the pre-electoral debate is just a misshapen discussion. Now that the names of the candidates are clearly identified (ARENA, FMLN, and CDU), the argument is about the personalities of each one of them. This debate also overlooks the most important aspect of the presidential elections: the presentation of solutions to the specific problems of the country.

The importance of the economic aspect
Many of the most serious problems that the Salvadoran society is going through have both an economic and a social nature. Poverty, the massive immigration to the United States, delinquency, and the States’ inefficient social assistance are only a few of those problems. This is the way it is because the economy of a country is the structure where the equally important dimensions of the reality are built on: politics, culture, legal procedures, just to name a few aspects of that reality. As long as the economic activity of a country contributes to resolve some of the most important needs of the population, it is very probable that, even if it is not done automatically, the political, the social, and the legal affairs take the right turn.

The strategies to improve the economic situation of the Salvadoran population are extremely important. The design process of these strategies should begin with the identification of the most critical problems, in order to look for the most adequate solutions. The search for those answers is the responsibility of the entire citizenry, but for someone who chooses to become president of a country the search for the adequate strategies is definitively a must.

The proposals to resolve these problems have not been the priority of the present pre-campaign. The necessary debate should not be about abstract ideological principles, or about the personality of the candidates, but about the strategies that each party proposes to deal with the national problems.

Such strategies should emerge from our own reality, and should not be the product of the foreign recipes, which, in the end, are not positive for the country. For example, to insist that the country will improve its economy just by signing a free trade agreement is not a coherent solution to the needs of the population. This is because the private interests prevail in the free trade agreements, and that is why the most important objective is to maximize the profits in the local and the international markets. Therefore, to satisfy the needs of the majority is not a priority.

In addition, from a technical perspective, the acceptance of trade agreements will reduce the possibilities of those who direct the economic policy of the country. This policy is the key element that the State has to affect the behavior of the economic activity and the social life. For instance, the Monetary Integration Law, together with a commercial policy, focused on opening the markets, will not leave any room in the future for the next administrations to make changes and implement a coherent development strategy to deal with both the problems and the challenges of the country.

The economic platform of the future: development for all
The present economic situation is critical. However, the political parties do not seem to realize that fact. Instead of focusing themselves on the presentation of plans for both the economic and the social development of the country, they are far more worried about the electoral marketing strategy that they will follow. The immediate political conveniences are considered more important than the actual needs of the people. The news media are circumscribed in this logic of superficiality. To measure the future of the country through thousands of psychological interpretations about the personalities of the candidates seems to be a major preoccupation of national dimensions. What is the use of posting the faces of the candidates in every wall, if no one knows what is the candidate’s specific proposal to end with extreme poverty? Is it to defeat poverty, the social inequality problems, the unfair economic conditions of the country the actual purpose of the candidates and their parties?

ARENA has successfully managed to deal exactly with that: The logic of superficiality. An election can be won over a demagogic foundation, with the use of rhetoric, and meaningless promises. It is enough to have an attractive face, and efficient propaganda machine, and the blessings of the business elite’s members (who also control the news media)?

The priorities of the economy and the Nation’s Plan
The economic platform that the country needs to defeat underdevelopment goes beyond the present political process. Poverty, inequality, the economic stagnation, and the low levels of social development eloquently speak about the need to come up with structural solutions.

The economic policy developed by ARENA has been reduced to a commercial policy apparently attached to the interests of the United States. Robert Zoellic, the commercial representative of that country, has just proved that El Salvador and the rest of the Central American countries negotiate on their knees and without any options the possibility of an agreement that must be signed by the end of this year. Who receives the benefits of this kind of commercial policy, when El Salvador has become a lackey of the foreign capital’s interests, and not a server of the population?

It is necessary to create plans that go beyond the short-term vision that ARENA has worked with during the last 15 years. Not only this party, but all of the political institutions should design different initiatives to deal with the economic problems in a structural fashion.

The initiative of the former President, Calderon Sol, called “A Nation’s Plan” was overlooked by his own party during his administration. Neither President Flores, nor the opposition have tried to include in their administration programs a long-term plan such as this one. “A Nation’s Plan” has become a reference document, not for the political classes of the country, which do not seem to be aware about its existence, but for the cooperation of countries such as Japan, a nation that intends to encourage integral development projects with long-term investments.

The point of no return in the economic policy
The present administration’s economic policies, and those of the up-coming governments should focus on the reduction of poverty in El Salvador. What should they do first? If the politicians intend to make structural changes, it is necessary to substantially transform the unfair distribution of the national income, reactivate the weak growth of the economy, create new and better employment opportunities, and reconsider the public policies as part of an actual nation’s plan.

It does not matter what party gains more votes, if the winners do not assume the responsibility to face the problems of administrating a country where one out of every two people lives in poverty, and where a substantial proportion of these people are not able to cover their most elemental needs (approximately, 700,000 people suffer from malnutrition or run the risk to do so, according to the Food Program of the World)

It is not healthy to hide the actual magnitude of the problem, just as President Flores does in his discourses, when he describes both the economic and the social situation of the country as “optimum”. What is ironic about this subject is that if the situation were so positive, the immigration percentage would not be that high. Year after year, almost 72,000 people leave this country and go to the United States looking for job opportunities and a better life. At the same time, every year, 11,000 people graduate from the universities with very little possibilities of getting a job. The employment offer covers less than 50% of the existing demand in El Salvador. The employment agencies reflect this problem, since only three people out of a hundred will find a job.

The economic policy of the winning party should make a serious approach to the bad health of the productive sectors, in order to revive their potential as a source of income, but also to attack the roots of poverty. For instance, the agricultural sector gathers most of the focal points of extreme poverty, and this is reflected in the transformations of the income’s structure. In 1978, the traditional agricultural exports represented 81% of the income for the country. However, in 2000 these exports only represent a 17%. The population that depended on this sector has not been able to adjust to this change, since the employment opportunities are now more demanding and restrictive.

It is necessary to promote a development model based on the country’s characteristics, and in order to do this it is necessary to create a new motor for development, without relying on the family remittances and the empty electoral promises.