The underground campaign of ARENA

The electoral advice from the Big Brother

Three years ago, the electoral race towards the presidency of Nicaragua was the scenery of a somehow disconcerting alliance. The Anti-Sandinista sectors, the partners of the international economic elite and the most important communication media, together with the support of the influential public officials of the United States, released a national campaign of discredit, fear, and psychological terror against both the Frente Sandinista para la Liberación Nacional (FSLN) and its presidential candidate. Back then, the press did not hesitate to predict a situation of economic uncertainty, the departure of some business companies, a considerable increase of the poverty level and crime, in case that a victory for the FSLN were to take place.

The Bush administration officials joined those who preached about the upcoming disaster. A former ambassador of the United States in Nicaragua, Lino Gutierrez, dared to give his advice to the Nicaraguan people. In his statement before the American Chamber of Commerce, in Nicaragua, he reminded them about the conditions that his country puts in order to accept the results of the elections and to offer a certain amount of support to the elected president. According to the former ambassador, as long as the elections were clean, free, and transparent, his government would accept them as the legitimate decision of the Nicaraguan electorate. However, he immediately said that a full cooperation between both countries depended on the past of the elected candidate, on his relations with the friends or the enemies of the United States, and on his will to approve all of the decisions of the White House.

Jeb Bush, the brother of the President of the United States and Governor of the City of Miami, also intervened in the electoral process of Nicaragua. He was offered a special segment inside the newspapers of the country to speak about his aversion to Sandinismo and its leader, Daniel Ortega. Jeb Bush stated that “he is an enemy of everything that the United States represents. And he is also a friend of our enemies”. That is why he told the electorate to be careful when choosing an alternative that might bring a severe sanction for their relatives who live abroad and end with their dreams.

The elections in Nicaragua ended with the defeat of Daniel Ortega. Although there are many reasons why Daniel Ortega might have lost, it would be necessary to analyze the political reality of that country in order to understand it, and undoubtedly, the campaign of fear launched by the Anti-Sandinistas, especially the direct intervention of the United States in the campaign was in part responsible for the result of the elections. Just as the Ambassador of the United States, Oliver Garza, wished, the new macabre axis Nicaragua–Venezuela–Cuba did not become a reality, which, according to the formerly described perspective, would have been disastrous for the continent.

Is story repeating itself in El Salvador?
Ever since the Salvadoran electoral campaign began, the sectors that follow the right wing, the local business elite, and several officials of the United States have used the same discourse that was successfully rehearsed in Nicaragua. There are many warnings displayed on the press about how disastrous it would be if the FMLN wins the elections. These messages use discourses such as the following: “There have been many comments about the (disastrous) economic consequences of an eventual triumph of the FMLN; and also about the effects of a political setback, the lack of freedom, and international relations that go against the interests of the State and against the nation. All of this, is clearly expressed in every way possible in order to conclude that the results would be poverty, pressure, violence, and a turbulent environment in general for all of the population, even for those who in good faith (and ignorantly) believe in the FMLN”.

“To make even more credible the negative predictions, former sympathizers of the FMLN who are now members of the Neoliberal world, became the spokespeople of the political worries of the business elite. They do not skimp on efforts to remind the people about the experiences that they lived inside the left wing and prove what they refer to as the incapacity of this political group to contribute with the development of the nations. Let us imagine what will happen with a small country from Central America, which is only beginning to consolidate the democratic process, which has over two million of compatriots in the United States, if by one of those curses of destiny a Marxist candidate like Allende wins”

The officials of the United States who have expressed their opinions about the Salvadoran electoral process showed their sympathy for the candidate of the businessmen and their suspicion about the project of the left wing. A few days before leaving the country, Rose Likins, the former ambassador of the United States in El Salvador, organized a press conference to speak about her worries regarding the economic project of the FMLN. Ever since then, in specific situations, several officials from Washington have spoken about similar worries because a left-wing project might question the economic strategy of the United States in the continent or the untouched dogmas.

The declarations that the Sub Secretary for Hemispheric Affairs of the Bush Administration, Roger Noriega, made during his recent visit to the country are one more evidence of how much the Big Brother wants to interfere. And the local conservative sectors approve of these intentions. The press informed that Noriega invited the Salvadorans to look into the future. That look at the future should be understood as an invitation to discard the option represented by the left wing. “It is fair to see –said Noriega- that the campaign of the FMLN has shown how much it disagrees with us when it comes to discuss the Free Trade Agreement and other affairs, and we know the story of that political movement, that is why it is only fair for the Salvadorans to judge what kind of relations that movement will establish with us”. The Sub Secretary also reminded the voters that his government wants to keep cooperating with the Salvadoran government. That is why he wishes that “the Salvadoran people is able to choose someone who shares our vision, our values, and the interest to improve the relation between our countries”.

On the other hand, it has been announced that Jeb Bush will visit the country in a few days. Officially, it has been said that the visit of the Miami Governor is part of a project that intends to support the approval of the Free Trade Agreement that has been recently negotiated with the United States. However, it is very probable that this visitor repeats here what he did at Nicaragua.

The FMLN and the forgotten dignity
Until not too long ago, Schafik Handal had handled the discredit campaign against him with a certain dignity, as well as the different critics that came from the American officials. While certain local sectors accused Handal of promising impossible dreams and preparing a confrontation project against the United States, the presidential candidate of the FMLN basically referred to the flaws of the present economic model and the general wish to change it. In order to end with the negative critics about his anti-American attitude, Handal would use common sense and he would recall the meaning of the real politik.

However, last week the FMLN gave an unmistakable sign of the party’s inability to resist the attacks. The campaign strategists took advantage of the visit that the Ambassador of the United States paid to the FMLN and published a photograph of the former and the Candidate. A courtesy visit of the Ambassador was transformed into an opportunity to promote the party’s alleged good relations with the Government of the United States. The Ambassador said that he was not happy with this publicity stunt because the intention of the visit was not to support the left-wing candidate. Consequentially, Roger Noriega decided to cancel a previously arranged meeting with Handal, as a protest against the actions of the FMLN.

Without a doubt, there is plenty of hypocrisy in the press statements released by these officials about the publicity stunt pulled by the FMLN. In the past, the campaign strategists of Antonio Saca have used images of his meetings with the American officials in order to rave about how qualified the candidate really is. Under those circumstances the foreign affairs’ service of the United States did not say a word. On the contrary, they approve of the candidate’s wish to collaborate. In Washington, they see these actions as samples of the necessary support that has to exist between the allies that find themselves in a complicated political conjunction.

However, this lack of consistency of the foreign policy of the United States is no excuse to hide the lack of dignity of the presidential candidate of the FMLN. Even if a confrontation with the United States is not politically desirable, this does not justify the fact that Handal was not able to control his wish to compete with Saca in order to ingratiate himself with Washington. The leaders of this party should remember that , in any case, the most powerful country of the North would rather keep the original than to choose a photocopy. In Washington they do not question the sincere wishes of the candidate from ARENA. His party has always been a defender of the American interests in the region.

The fact that the FMLN did not resist the temptation to look for the approval of the Big Brother gives us an idea, on the one hand, about the intense pressures that this party has had to deal with during the last months, and about the actual degree of independence that the Salvadoran democracy has. A key element of this political regime has to do with the celebration of periodical, free, and transparent elections. However, democracy is also the expression of an absolute independence and freedom. Freedom to choose a government that will defend the interests of the people. As long as this decision remains attached to the approval of a powerful foreign country, it is evident that the opportunities to decide will be unacceptably reduced. This is not about forgetting that the political decisions always take place in specific sceneries that either narrow or widen the possibilities of those involved. This is about underlining the falsehood of a propaganda that raves about the alleged coincidence between the American and the Salvadoran interests.

One more year of economic stagnation

The Foundation for the Economic and the Social Development (FUSADES, in Spanish) has just recently presented its report about the national economic situation. According to that report, the economic performance has practically not improved during the last seven years.

FUSADES explains that one of the situations that is blocking the development of the economy is the uncertain environment about the possible results of the elections. The report explains that there is a index of uncertainty in connection with the future investments, and close to the index reached during the civil war.

The document mentions that despite the difficulties that have characterized the profile of the national environment, the economy of the country had an acceptable behavior due to a couple of elements.
1. The national consumption level grew, and this increased the level of economic activity inside the commercial sectors.
2. The increase of the economic investments on the reconstruction of the country (after the earthquakes of 2001) prevented the national investments from having a steep fall, and they were kept at an acceptable level.

A general perspective of the problem
Although the economic problems of the country are determined by the international economic activity, the problem cannot be explained though that perspective alone. A quick glance to the country’s economic policy of the last administrations might help us to understand the causes of the stagnation.

After 1989, a process of relevant reforms took place in the State. The most important measures had to do with the privatization of several companies that belonged to the state, the beginning of the process of commercial openness, the dollarization of the economy, and the participation in diverse free trade agreements.

Up to this date, these measures have had a great impact on the economy. Each one of them was promoted as the solution to the country’s economic problems. However, they have reduced the purchasing power of many Salvadorans.

One of the most important transformations was the main role granted to both the commercial activities and sector of services. A country where for so many years the agricultural activity was considered the most important economic sector, replaced its axis of accumulation of capital for another sector that did not absorb as many workers. This measure left many laborers without a job, and the migration levels increased.

The distribution of services and the commercial activities have not allowed the country to generate enough resources. During the last years, more importance has been granted to the mechanisms that allow a more active circulation of the money used to accelerate the economic transactions. However, the country is not actually producing more wealth. Therefore, the consumption expenses have increased, while the production level has not.

How can the consumption level of a country be higher than its production level? This can be “achieved” by importing a wide range of products from other countries. The economists Carlos Acevedo and Juan Hector Vidal explained that this country has a high consumption level and a low production level. In order to reach this level of consumption, which goes beyond the national production level, the policies implemented by the government –for instance, the commercial openness process and the possibility to sign the free trade agreement- have played a very important role. Due to these policies, now it is much easier to buy a product from another country than to purchase an item produced in El Salvador.

The repercussions of the commercial openness process created by the free trade agreement go beyond the consumption problem: it has a strong influence on the production. The new products that come from abroad, which have both a higher quality and lower prices, affect the local industry. Many of the local business companies are not prepared to compete with the foreign organizations in the context of a free trade agreement since the government never became interested in the design of protection policies for the local companies that have to face the foreign competitors.

It is interesting to notice that FUSADES indicates that most of the credits granted by the banking system are destined to consumption activities rather than to the productive investments. One of the newest details of this aspect, according to FUSADES, is that the family remittances sent by Salvadorans are not enough to equilibrate the situation of the balance of trade. In former years, this source of income has been a substantial contribution to the country’s macroeconomic situation, since it has been able to balance the regular account level, and, therefore, the balance of payments.

In the last years, the amount of family remittances that arrive to the country has increased. However, for 2003, the amount of dollars sent by Salvadorans who live abroad was not enough to pay for the debts connected with the sector of goods and services. This means that the level of consumption increased, while the production level remained at a lower position.

The importance of the case
What is happening in the country must be a warning sign. The tendency to spend more and produce less can develop, in the long term, into an economic crisis. It is important to see that not only the private consumption level is exceeding the productive capacity of the country; the public consumption level is exceeding it too. The government, as well as the private figures are leading El Salvador to a debt that goes beyond the country´s productive capacity.

The free trade agreement with the United States is far from being the solution to this problem. The existence of a commercial agreement with that nation could generate, in the short and in the medium term, a strong commercial deficit. If the agreement is achieved, the importation level will grow faster than the exportation level. The official propaganda intends to assure that the arrival of the Salvadoran products to the American market is the best bet for the development of the economy. However, nothing much can be sold to the United States if the national production is scarce. The country does not count yet with a productive apparatus capable to export goods.

The solution for the present stagnation of the economy must be connected with the reactivation of the national productive sectors. In order to do that, it is necessary to stop focusing exclusively on the growth of the trade and the services, and place a higher bet for both the agricultural and the industrial sector. This is the only choice that the country has to increase its capital.