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Proceso 1099
May 26, 2004
ISSN 0259-9864
 
 

INDEX




Editorial:  What is going on with the FMLN?

Politics:  The political legacy left by Flores

Economy:  The increasing prices of petroleum and the inflation spiral

 
 
Editorial


 What is going on with the FMLN?

 

The results of the elections would reveal that Elias Antonio Saca was the new leader of the Executive power, and it has been impossible for the FMLN to come out of the crisis that was created inside of the party as a consequence of those results. The left-wing party was defeated and the reactions of the FMLN immediately arose. Those who demand explanations (explanations that should come along with a readjustment inside the structures of the party) are those who refused to accept that Schafik Handal was the right candidate for the presidency because they believed that he was not a competitive character and that he was also an easy target that could be defeated by Elias Antonio Saca. From the perspective of Handal’s detractors, there is nothing more to see that his electoral defeat; and that reality demands certain changes inside the FMLN. Those changes request a redefinition of the party’s structures. Handal and Salvador Sanchez Ceren have to step aside in order that the other leaders of the FMLN –among those, Oscar Ortiz- are able to take control of the political institution in this post-electoral conjunction at the beginning of the fourth administration period of ARENA.

The interpretation of what happened is very different inside the circle that surrounds Handal. For the spokespeople of this sector of the FMLN, even if it is true that the elections were won by ARENA, that victory was not a legitimate one. Fear, extortion, and manipulation were the factors that created a favorable environment for ARENA; and if it had not been for those anomalous factors, the FMLN would have won. In order to make a statement, Handal’s followers keep referring to the institutional growth of the party because this time it obtained over 800,000 votes, and those results are connected with the merits of the candidate.

In other words, the fact that the FMLN lost the elections does not mean much, given the illegal and the dirty character of those elections. What is truly significant is that the number of voters has increased; that is the actual triumph of the party. And that is because Schafik Handal, although far from being a competitive rival for ARENA, was someone who made the right-wing tremble. The right wing had to discredit him, and had to use its manipulative means in order to defeat him. The consequence of all this is that Handal, Ceren, and their closest followers have to keep controlling the destinies of the FMLN because they are prepared to turn the party into a successful political institution with its own identity.

In this context, a couple of clear postures have been shaped inside the FMLN about the performance of the party. Some of them put that performance as an example to demand the renovation of the highest level of leadership; the others speak about that performance in order to legitimate their presence inside the highest levels of the party, where the decisions are made. However, neither of them has created any proposals about what could be or should be a left-wing project capable to face the enormous challenges that El Salvador has at the present moment.

Since March, the debates, the polemics, the differences, and the conflicts inside the FMLN have been surrounding those who will control the structure of the party. The substance, the redefinition of a project capable of becoming a viable alternative, a realistic alternative before the hegemony consolidated by ARENA does not seem to be found anywhere. For now, in the FMLN everything has been reduced to a conflict between people, their political backgrounds, and their personal credentials. This has not been about a conflict of projects, but a conflict that intends to reveal if those who have the control of the party will be capable to keep it or if, on the contrary, their detractors will have enough determination and the skills to replace them. This is, therefore, a game of powers; a game in which there are people fighting to control a political party and not its institutional direction, nor its identity or its social and its political position.

That is why no matter how long they take to resolve their controversial issues, the main feature of the internal debate of the left-wing is the shallowness of both the ideological and the political contents. What seems to be important for them is the ambition to keep the decision-making power or to gain it at any cost. It is always the same story with the FMLN. It has not become a modern institution, and now it seems to be working as an old-fashioned communist party where the Secretary General decides what to do with the destiny of the organization. This is not a coincidence; in the end of the day, the Communist Party (PCS, in Spanish) and the FPL (an organization founded by former members of the PCS) just kept their fundamental structures.

It does not look like the crisis of the FMLN will be resolved any time soon. At the moment, Schafik Handal and his people control the party. It will not be easy to take the power away from them. Those who intend to do so might struggle as much as they want, but that is no guarantee of a successful outcome. They will probably just have to settle in the end for what they have now and accept the rules of the game that come from the highest levels of the organization. They will probably insist and end up leaving the party, as it has happened to other members. In the meantime, the FMLN will keep divorcing itself from society, especially from all of those sectors that are not satisfied with the right- wing’s administration style, which has promoted nothing but the deterioration of the people’s life standards.

The consolidation of a right-wing hegemonic block that intends to control everything (politically, economically, and socially speaking) at present is a very serious challenge for the Salvadoran society. The FMLN is doing nothing to neutralize this hegemony. On the contrary, their internal crisis makes it easy for the right wing to penetrate deeper into the society. It seems that the leading figures of the left wing do not realize what is going on outside of the party, because that party has become their own world. The FMLN might have to pay a very high price, in electoral terms, for turning its back on the citizenry. The society might have to pay a high price, in economic terms, for not having more options than the ones promoted by the right wing. Both of these issues deserve the attention of the most lucid minds and the most honest members of the FMLN. It is them who should occupy a position inside the party.

G

 

Politics


 The political legacy left by Flores

 

Francisco Flores is leaving. On June 1st, Elias Antonio Saca will be inaugurated as President. The first thing that can be said about this event is that it is a symbol of the consolidation of the control that ARENA has over the country. The dream of major Roberto D’Aubisson is still coming true. D’Aubisson was the founder of the party and he was well-known, among other things, because of his implication in several murder cases and violations against the human rights during the civil war.

The hesitating beginnings of Flores
Back in 1998, when he became president of the Legislative Assembly, Francisco Flores was only a person that nobody knew who was trying to become an important part of the national political life. He was reelected as congressman during the legislative elections of 1997, but Flores did not have a successful professional background, especially not inside the former Ministry of Planning, an institution that no longer exists and that was part of the Cristiani administration. No one can remember an extraordinary political initiative that the young Vice Minister of Planning might have created. The political biography of Flores that the web page of the country’s Presidency publishes explains that he “reformulated the Governmental Plan after the Peace Accords were made”. At this point, no one actually remembers that plan or that he had changed the social or the economic situation of the Salvadoran population.

With this professional background, during his second period at the Congress Flores managed to become president of the Legislative Assembly. During that stage of his career, even if it could be said that he was a serene politician who knew how to avoid unpleasant confrontations between his party and the opposition, Flores’ image did not stand out. When he announced his intention to run for the country’s presidency he took several leaders of his party by surprise, who finally accepted his nomination (but were not too happy about it) in order to avoid any controversies.

After his arrival to the Presidential House, Flores crowned his career as a taciturn and a serene young politician, according to those who were close to him at the time. Back then, many would say, Flores lived overshadowed by the prestige of his father in law, an ideologist that had belonged to ARENA and who was murdered by the insurgent movements during the civil war. His profile as a second-hand public official seems to obey to this pattern. He had occupied low-profile positions inside the ARENA administrations. When he ran for President, in 1998, Flores changed his destiny as the protégé of the Creole politics, who, until that moment, seemed to live thanks to the political connections of his relatives.

From the time when he announced his wish to participate in the presidential race until the day he was elected President, Flores took advantage of his fame as a moderate young intellectual in order to launch himself inside the political imagery of the Salvadoran population. At the time, the traditional politicians did not have a clean public image –and this perception prevails- and Flores introduced himself as the leader of a new generation willing to change the generalized perception that the citizenry had about politics. The slogan of his campaign spoke about a new alliance and about a new way to do politics in the country. Flores said that his adversaries were not the politicians that belonged to the opposition, but the problems of the population. During his electoral campaign, he toured around the 262 municipal territories of the country, in order to, according to him, listen to the Salvadoran population. In addition, he tried to sell the idea that he was a highly intellectual professional who was willing to put his wide range of academic talents at the service of the country.


The former ideas were widely advertised, and a columnist said in 1999, at the time of the presidential inauguration, that he admired Flores because he thought that he was a politician out of this world. “The speech that Flores delivered this morning can do nothing but fill our minds with hope, because he has gone beyond the traditional demagogy used by the politicians. Mentioning many times that the individuals were the axis of his program only goes to show that he has a clear philosophy behind his analysis. He mentioned that this is not only about promoting the individual rights, but about demanding the accomplishment of the basic obligations through a system of shared responsibilities”.

The promises
In addition to the “futurist” vision that was used to introduce Flores, there was also a communication campaign that was essentially promoted through the media. Flores, the candidate, took advantage of his acting abilities in order to get the attention of the Salvadorans. Back then, it was usually said that he was a living example of simplicity and humbleness. His “ability” to achieve consensus, order, and equity was used as an example of his professional background at the Congress. He was willing to listen to the Salvadoran population without having any confrontations with his opponents. He became famous for using phrases that would be captivating for the naïve; fallacious and vague words, that is. “A debate is a sterile choice if it does not build. Critiques, if they do not propose and guarantee a better plan, are useless. This day we shall engage ourselves and create a better country, better than the one that our parents left to us. An this will only be possible if we always act as the best political class, the one that build a fair society. I give my word to you under this political ethics”.

For Flores, the political construction of the country should not be considered under any perspective as the duty of just one political party or just one actor. “To sustain and to take care of our already firm democracy is a complex responsibility. The country that in this words we want for our people cannot be the work of a party or a cabinet alone. It demands the creative participation of all of the living forces of the nation: the Congress, the Judicial Power, the Armed Forces, the Church, the University, the Syndicates, the Unions of Workers, the Non Governmental Organizations, and the International Communities. Let us give to our people what has brought us together for their benefit. And let us discuss and disagree in the best way possible. To our political opposition, one of the guarantees of democracy, we make today a respectful request that for myself and my own Cabinet I wish”.

Five years later, what is the legacy that Flores left?
To properly judge the Flores administration it is necessary to use a couple of complementary criterion. The first one is connected with the parameters that he established at the beginning of his administration period. The second one is connected with the quality of his response to the specific events that he had to deal with during his presidency. Flores, when referring to his party during his inauguration speech, said that he wanted the young people to find in ARENA a place to fulfill their political aspirations, a place that would allow them to express themselves politically. In other words, he wanted this party to remain as part of the leading decision-making political institutions of the country.

From this perspective, Flores won his bet. And it will be necessary to grant him a honorable place in the history of ARENA, next to the successful politicians of that party. He did not have to give away the power to a candidate from the opposition, just to image that the power could have been held by the opposition was one of the worst nightmares of ARENA during the Flores Administration. His party obtained the same number of elected congressmen as the FMLN during the elections of 2000, and in 2003, ARENA was left behind by the left wing. In summary, during the Flores administration, ARENA went through the most difficult times of its short electoral existence. Flores was publicly questioned by the most important leaders of ARENA. It was said that the price to pay for the stubbornness of the President would be the elections.

However, against the predictions of the prophets of disgrace, Flores knew how to clean up his act. His party not only won the elections, which was a relief for the party, but Flores had his personal revenge over his detractors. He publicly scolded the leaders of his party that had questioned his administration during a National Convention. That is why, from this perspective, it could be said that Flores achieved his goal. In addition, the name of El Salvador has been heard all over the world. At times because the Flores administration was an unconditional ally of Bush all along in the war against Iraq, and at times because of the support that the illegal immigrants have received from the Government of the United States, since some people have been offered the possibility of staying in that nation.

The political achievements of the Flores administration are temporary topics that are far from the promises he made during his campaign. Flores promised a new way of doing politics. However, for any observer that might had been paying close attention to the national affairs during the last five years, there have not been any understandings with the opposition, and we have not taken a step further into the consolidation of the country’s young democracy. On the contrary, the most emblematic institutions have been shaken by all kinds of difficulties connected, precisely, with the arrogant attitude of Francisco Flores.

Despite the fact that the results of the elections have been supported by the international community, an important sector of the opposition contested the political process and questioned the legitimacy of the Saca administration. The posture taken by the leaders of the FMLN will not make the electoral results vary or cast a shadow upon Saca’s image at an international level. However, there is no doubt that this is a bad precedent of the political conjunction created after the Peace Accords. In addition, the confrontation that took place during the campaign is the result of five years of disputes between the opposition and the Flores administration. The worst mistake of this administration was his permanent attacks against the rest of the institutions of the State. Out of all of those institutions, the Judicial System took the worst part. In the context of his fight against delinquency, Flores politically did lynch the judges and the prestige of the judicial institution.

It has been five years of tension and hard work for the Flores Administration. He won many political battles during this period. However, he never measured up to the height of a statesman, the kind of statesman that has a long-term perspective and the will to leave an everlasting political legacy. The new political ethics that Flores promised to deliver never came true. He never really considered the opposition as part of the new society that the Salvadoran population longs for.

G

 

Economy


 

 

The increasing prices of petroleum have its roots outside the Salvadoran borders, and even outside the Latin American borders. The headlines of the newspapers at a global scale focus on the impact caused by the increasing prices of the economies, especially those economies that do not produce petroleum, and this has a number of direct consequences on the relations of all of the economic sectors and the cost of living. What is the reason for this generalized increase on the petroleum prices, and what are the consequences for countries such as El Salvador?

According to the different analysts, the increase on the petroleum prices cannot be compared with anything else almost since the time when the United States invaded Kuwait in 1990. The prices have increased by 25%, and at times the barrel of petroleum has reached a record price of $41 per unit in the last five months of this year, and there are no effective solutions at sight able to stop this tendency in the short term.

What is behind of the volatility of the petroleum prices has plenty to do with those who either control or have the possibility to affect the prices established for petroleum. This elite is formed by oligopolies such as the one of the OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEP, in Spanish), and countries such as the United States. There has been an odd behavior in the way they have developed the offer and the demand of this material, and these countries are responsible for these distortions.

The first problem has to do with the high level of economic dependency from this product in a global scale, and with the “economic terror” of losing it. This could get the situation out of control: to treasure this resource during the times of conflict, such as the one between Iraq and the United States, because it puts the free flow of the petroleum production at risk. Iraq has reduced the level of petroleum production due to the conflict, and this situation could create a reduction of the oil offer at a global level. However, at the same time, the demand has increased and gone beyond the pre-established records because countries such as the United States, China, and India, among others, seem to be reserving and buying larger supplies of oil in order not to be affected by the lack of this resource. The result, anyhow, is a decreasing offer of petroleum that can be contrasted with a growing demand for it in the most powerful countries of the world.

If just as the British news agency BBC stated it, the context of the Middle East does not seem to have any substantial changes as to increase the production of petroleum at a significant level, and, according to the International Agency of Energy right now the planet has the highest level of demand of petroleum in the last 16 years, then the average effect in the increase on the prices could last for one more trimester with terrible consequences for the poorest economies.

The game of the double moral standards
The increasing prices of petroleum have a direct effect on the economy of the poorest sectors of the country. During the last few weeks, there have been speculations about an increase on the public transportation fares due to the increasing prices of petroleum. This is now a reality. There is a considerable amount of buses that have increased their fares. The bus fare in the urban areas has increased between 47% and 76%, and this considerably affects the purchasing power of the poorest sectors of the country.

In order to have a clearer idea of this problem, it is necessary to start with an analysis that takes into consideration the present minimum salary. This minimum salary adds up to a total of $155.9 dollars (commerce, services, industry, maquila). This sectors are considered because they concentrate the activities that are basically developed in the urban areas of the country, and evidently in the city. A person basically spends at least 7% of his or her monthly minimum wage salary in bus fares, that is approximately $10.20 dollars.

If we consider the increase on the bus fare (between $0.25 and $0.30 cents), the purchasing power of the Salvadoran population seems to get even more deteriorated. Now a person has to spend at least $15.00 or $18.00 dollars a month just on the bus fare, that is between 10% and 12% of the average minimum wage.

In the last case this is a considerable increase on the bus fare, and therefore it represents also a considerable expense for a person that only has the basic resources to barely survive, that is the minimum wage. This problem takes more of a real dimension when we consider that the figures formerly calculated do not contemplate several aspects: this means that a person sometimes travels by bus more than twice in a day, and that he or she also spends money on the bus fare of their family; and that their employer deducts from the minimum wage the workers’ contribution to the income tax, social security, and the retirement fund). If all of these elements were taken into consideration, the diagnosis about the economic situation of the Salvadorans would be even more critical.

In addition, it is important to see that with this kind of salaries it is necessary to have access to other goods and services that are essential to survive: food, housing, and clothing, among other things. Whether this might be acceptable or not, transportation is and essential need. And this is evidently a critical situation for the poorest sectors of the country.

The government plays a double morals game in this problem: as most people know, the different ARENA administrations are in favor of the performance of the free market and therefore in favor of the free competition. This means that inside the performance of the market and through the free flow of offers and demands there are adjustments to be made on the prices and amounts. From this perspective, an increase on the public transportation fares is presented as a need that the owners of the buses have in order to keep their transportation units working.

In this case, it is necessary to realize that an increase on the prices of petroleum turns into an increase on the prices of gasoline and diesel, and on several products that are necessary to run the public transportation system. Under this logic, to increase the bus fare is a need that the owners have in order to keep the service working, and inside a free market this need has to be respected by the State. However, the government has said that those owners that do increase the bus fare will be sanctioned with fines and that the buses could be taken away from them by the authorities.

On the other hand, we have that the distributors of gasoline and diesel that work in this free market and that, based on the rationality of a monopoly, establish many times the prices of the combustible and are able to keep a very profitable level of income. The government has never made a serious effort to regulate the hydrocarbon market, and the business elite together with the international companies are the ones that determine the national prices when they distribute combustible inside the local markets. Although there has been an intention to regulate the hydrocarbon market, there are still no laws that can favor the population.

It seems odd that the government is trying to pressure the union of bus owners to obey to its orders, while it is not making any efforts to regulate the hydrocarbon market. It is more effective to determine the adjustments from the combustible distribution market rather than pressuring the owners of the buses in order to prevent them from increasing the bus fares. The intention is to control the profits of the bus owners without regulating the profits obtained by the most important dealers of gasoline and diesel, because, in the end, they actually represent the largest international companies: ESSO, SHELL, and TEXACO.

This does not mean that we approve of the increasing bus fares, the intention is to analyze the double moral standards that the government plays with since it does not want to regulate the price of hydrocarbon.

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