El Salvador faces the tropical storm "Mitch"

The economic impact of the tropical storm "Mitch"

What was predictable about the storm "Mitch"

"Mitch" in Central America

News Briefs

EL SALVADOR FACES THE TROPICAL STORM "MITCH"

During the last two weeks the effects of the tropical storm "Mitch" have been felt throughout El Salvador. Strong and continuous rains, flooding, mudslides and cave-ins have been— the occurrences most characteristic of the physical impact of this phenomenon. Although it is not possible to calculate the economic impact with any certainty at this moment, it represents a loss of several million colones in infrastructure destroyed, cultivated areas flooded, livestock and farm birds drowned, and housing torn down by the water. From the point of view of its human impact the climatological phenomenon has caused no less than 225 deaths, not counting those who run the risk of dying for lack of medicine or timely medical attention, several thousand homeless (but no less than 50,000) and these with close family members disappeared or dead and countless children orphaned or abandoned by their parents, in the context of the tragedy.

Not all of the country has been affected with the same intensity, nor have all Salvadorans been affected in the same way. The tropical storm has hit the rural zones of the country with greater force, and, among the rural areas, the eastern zones of the country are hardest hit: La Paz, Usulután, San Miguel and La Union. In the west, in La Libertad, Sonsonate, Santa Ana, Ahuachapán and Metapán, although rains have been heavy, landslides have been the order of the day and the flooding has affected the coastal populations, but the situation has not reached alarming levels such as it has in the area known as "Bajo Lempa in La Union. In the central area, things have been relatively tranquil, except for the families who live on the banks of the Acelhuate River or in the surrounding areas, where security is tentative during the winter. Among those affected are the rural populations. Peasant families who live in the context of extreme precariousness suffered irremediable loss of the little they owned. Their poor belongings— cloth beds, hammocks, chickens and other birds, seeds— were all washed away with the water.

What is left for these Salvadorans? Practically nothing; they must begin to reconstruct their lives from the beginning. It is exactly here that the solidarity of all of us who have not been affected by the brutality of the hurricane "Mitch" is so urgent and necessary. Important glimmers of that solidarity have been seen these days in San Salvador in the shape of food, clothing and medicine which have been collected from the different towns and cities and taken to the places where they are most needed. Many people —young people, adults, religious men and women, journalists, radio and television announcers—have been mobilized by the desire to help those who are experiencing these difficult moments. Certainly, in situations of crisis such as that provoked by the climatological phenomenon which affected our country —and the rest of Central America— the aid which can be given is very little indeed and if a series of vital needs such as clothing, food and medicine have been supplied, the task of reconstruction of homes destroyed requires much more sustained aid.

Here is where, beyond the help that generous citizens can give, an aid policy at the state level directed towards the sectors affected by the tropical storm is needed. This is to say that citizen initiatives ought not and cannot fulfill the role and responsibility of the state in terms of resources and authority in providing attention to the recuperation of areas devastated by rains and landslides. This is a good opportunity to put the government’s commitment to the test with the recuperation of agriculture, the deterioration of which, even before the natural disaster, contributed to creating a series of conditions, such as soil erosion, lack of forested areas, etc. which made the storm’s impact even more destructive. "Mitch" hit a national agricultural situation suffering from severe environmental difficulties. These have been aggravated and increased by the difficulties facing the rural population in the struggle for survival. The problems of the rural areas must be located, then, in a broader context, in which the effects of the current climatological phenomenon are only a part of a more complex agricultural crisis.

In light of the tragedy, such as the one experienced now in El Salvador during recent weeks, there remains the doubt about what could have been done to avoid the worst consequences. There are those who do not hesitate to qualify the storm as "murderous" as if it had possessed a willingness of its own to effect this tragedy. A tropical storm is a natural phenomenon without a will, without good or bad feelings, which is caused by specific climatological conditions. Once the phenomenon comes about, there is no way to control it until its cycle of development and expansion comes to its own end. It punishes and destroys whatever crosses its path. In the phases of its greatest intensity, well-constructed buildings of steel and concrete are torn down by its force. In these conditions, it must be recognized, security measures which anyone might take would be of little value, and the only safe places are those far from the path of the storm.

The victims of natural disasters such as the tropical storm "Mitch", the capacity of those who must abandon their goods and reconstruct their lives or continue their lives elsewhere comes to the fore. Those who have sufficient resources —those who own homes or small parcels of land— can abandon areas of danger with relative ease. The greater number of victims are the poor families who had no other alternative than to stay with their scarce belongings —because if they lost them, they lost everything— or those who had no way of leaving the disaster areas and nowhere to go. And it is here where government intervention might have done a lot to lessen the storm’s impact on the rural population by mobilizing the least protected families beforehand to safer places where they could begin to reconstruct their lives. Instead of this, thousands of families are squeezed together in improvised sites from where, once the emergency has passed, they must return to the same places where they lived so poorly, until another disaster reminds us of their existence once again.

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE TROPICAL STORM "MITCH"

In spite of their name, natural disasters are not only the result of one natural phenomenon in particular, but rather of a combination of these within a vulnerable social context. Even in the most extreme and apparently totally unpredictable cases of disaster, a social component exists which has created the scenario for its impact. The location and characteristics of the places where people live and the deterioration of natural resources are two of the most important sources of vulnerability.

This has been clearly revealed recently by the effects of the tropical storm "Mitch" felt in most of the Central American countries. In El Salvador, the intensification of the disaster is owing to diverse practices, among which should be noted: the elimination of manglar groves which normally serve as a barrier against hurricane-type storms; massive deforestation of the whole coastal area with he intensification of the cultivation of cotton during the decade of the 1950’s; the emergence of villages during the post-war area which were created by the National Secretary for the Family in the area around the Lempa River known as "Bajo Lempa" and the poor administration of the river-bank areas around the hydroelectric dams, which has caused them to fill up with silt, and the growing necessity of implementing massive discharges of water during the rainy season.

El Salvador has been one of the Central American countries least affected by the disaster, but, even so, the effects have been heavy and astounding. According to official data, the magnitude of the disaster is estimated at some 225 deaths, 106 disappeared persons and 54,141 homeless; and while the economic costs are still difficult to quantify, but they will certainly will surpass any previous effects for disasters as a result of flooding.

The economic costs of the disasters in Latin America have been increasing during recent years and, given this, diverse regional entities such a the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL, for its initials in Spanish) and the Organization of American States (OEA, for its initials in Spanish), have noted the importance of including disaster prevention methodologies in development plans. This is especially true if we consider the reduction in the loss of human lives which a policy of prevention would presuppose, as well as the economic costs of such a loss are much less important than the economic losses caused during the disaster. The UN even declared the decade of the 1990’s as "The International Decade for the Reduction of Natural Disasters".

This concern for disasters emerged, principally, from the experiences resulting from heavy catastrophes such as the earthquake in Managua, Nicaragua in 1972; the effects of hurricane "Fifi" in 1974; the earthquake in Guatemala, in 1976; the serious earth and landslides in El Salvador in 1982; the 1985 Mexico City earthquake and the 1986 earthquake in El Salvador. Nevertheless, little has been learned from these experiences and governments have ignored calls to adopt policies for the reduction of disasters.

Economic costs —second to the loss in human lives— are one of the most important aspects which ought to be considered because they will have a very sensitive effect on different variables in he economy such as production, jobs, income, prices, exports, imports, public spending and fiscal income.

The costs of this disaster have not yet been calculated in their entirety, but preliminary figures present estimates which present losses in reduction in crop productions for export at least 1,500 million colones, which is equivalent to approximately 1.5% of the GNP projected for 1998 and 12% of the GNP for the agricultural and livestock sector for 1997.

To these figures must be added various direct and indirect costs, the first of which include losses in infrastructure and basic services and support for production, reduction in production of the formal and informal sectors, temporary paralysis of productive activity and the reduction of export possibilities. To judge from early data, direct costs of the disaster will total above 1,500 million colones because, over and above the losses in export crops there are the following kinds of losses which will have to be considered and a value placed on them: the destruction of at least five bridges; the destruction of many areas of roads and highways; the destruction of housing and public buildings; the losses of goods from homes; a reduction in the production of basic grains, livestock production and agricultural and livestock production in general, as well as the paralysis of productive activities.

In addition, indirect costs are more related to the implications for disaster in the phase following the storm, among which are post-disaster effects such as increases in public spending; the reduction in tax income as a result of the lessening of production and the elimination of taxes for the importation of foodstuffs and/or construction materials; an increase in the importation of these items; the reduction in exports and increases in the prices of basic products. Early data indicate that the government will dedicate 60 million colones to emergency aid, exports will be reduced by 1,500 million colones and the prices of food will increase to more than 50%.

There is no doubt that the panorama traced after the recent disaster is a somber one and only compounds a whole decade of disasters in El Salvador where diverse critical situations of a hydro-meteorological nature have been experienced. During the years 1991, 1994 and 1997 cases of severe drought have been registered, while during the years 1992, 1995, 1996 and 1998 have seen flooding, though the recent situation is the most serious.

The bitter experience of 1998 ought to serve as an exclamation point for the adoption of a policy for the reduction of disasters at the state level and in the most vulnerable communities. The only feasible measure for this is the creation of a legal and institutional context especially designed to deal with this and a strengthening of the budget for the institutions related to the control of environmental risks, which include not only the National Emergency Committee (COEN, for its initials in Spanish) but also the Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources and the Agricultural and Livestock Ministry.

The creation of a legal context which regulates the use of natural resources and the entities charged with implementing it are two necessary measures which ought to be taken in order to prevent disasters, especially given the evident increase in the frequency and intensity of such disasters.

Up until 1996, COEN received only 500,000 colones as a budget for its functioning while the Ministry for the Environment receives approximately 25 million colones and the MAG budget has experienced constant reductions year to year. With only 60 million colones for the strengthening of the prevention phase but not for emergency attention, the social context with which the tropical storm interacted would have been less vulnerable and the effects less intense. In the same way, the inclusion of preventive measures for natural phenomena in the construction of infrastructure would have reduced the costs of the disaster.

WHAT WAS PREDICTABLE ABOUT THE STORM, "MITCH"

 Comparatively speaking, on the question of the number of deaths, disappeared and homeless in other countries in Central America, El Salvador can consider itself fortunate. National disaster figures pale beside the magnitude of the catastrophe that hit Nicaragua and Honduras. Both countries face a total of 10,300 dead and approximately 7850 disappeared and more than a million and a half homeless (a little less than 5% of the total population for the isthmus).

 Nevertheless, if, in order to analyze the consequences of the passing of "Mitch" through Central America, we leave aside the figures and concentrate on what really makes it a tragedy, we might consider the sum total of the fatal circumstances of the phenomenon which can be easily said to be the only what made it different in El Salvador as compared with Nicaragua and Honduras was luck because the three countries share the characteristics which make up the stage for the presentation of a tragedy: absolute lack of forethought with regard to and prevention of disaster, a large sector of the population in severely straitened conditions of vulnerability facing the onslaught of nature, and a government without any great concern for the well-being and security of the population.

 So it is, then, that what makes up the tragedy is not the number of dead —although there is nothing more painful and irreparable than death— it is, even more, the circumstances which led to the fatal playing out of the situation taken as a whole. The relation of how many persons died as a result of the natural phenomenon and how many of them could have been saved if there had been appropriate measures adopted is what really illustrates the Central American tragedy. In this way, for example, the tragic eruption of the Casitas volcano in Nicaragua, did not cause the overwhelming number of deaths, rather it is in these deaths that human action might have mediated by omission; the tragic factor was that the government did not identify with anticipation the villages on the slopes of the volcano danger areas and did not adopt adequate measures, such as evacuation of the population a little before the arrival of the hurricane. Engineering activities could have helped to contain the landslides —much before it became an emergency situation.

 In El Salvador, particularly in the capital, a hint of what could have happened if "Mitch" had struck El Salvador with the same intensity as it did in Nicaragua and Honduras became evident some weeks before when a brief but intense Sunday storm lifted up the asphalt, flooded multi-family homes and downed trees and electrical posts in the Mejicanos and Ayutuxtepeque suburbs of the city of San Salvador. These events demonstrated that the conditions for a tragedy were already in place: in spite of earlier central government and municipal alerts, the multi-family homes still did not have a retaining wall which would hold back, in case of flooding of the streets or an overflow of the nearby streams took place, in which case the water would enter the buildings. Moreover, the asphalt of the streets, which had been repaired on many previous occasions, but never in a secure and permanent manner, was riddled with holes and there was only a thin overlay of asphalt.

 After the passing of the tropical storm, the Salvadoran government expressed a desire to understand some of the causes of the disaster as well as its effects —as did the Nicaraguan and Honduran governments. So it was, for example, that, for the Ministry of Public Works, the deterioration in the streets is a direct effect of the passing of "Mitch" when in reality the condition of the streets was owing to the lack of standards of quality in the construction of the highways of the country, which permitted a certain kind of meteorological phenomenon —no necessarily of devastating force— to deteriorate the principal highways of San Salvador without any problem.

 In what seemed to be a shared vision, the majority of the governments of the Central American area understand that the costs for the well-being of the population in cases of national emergency are only necessary when the disaster is already upon them and not when they can put in place institutional mechanisms for avoiding or softening the effects. In the Salvadoran case —it is not without the intention of taking political advantage of the damage caused by the storm— President Calderón Sol and the Legislative Assembly have not hesitated to destine a large amount of money for helping the homeless when the most reasonable course of action would have been to use the same amount beforehand to place the population in the danger areas in a safe place before the arrival of "Mitch". The difference between one measure and the other can only be calculated in terms of the number of deaths and hundreds of thousands of colones worth of damage.

Central America is certainly experiencing a real tragedy at this moment in time, but one which is the result of a coming together of a series of circumstances which are in and of themselves tragic. In this sense, what "Mitch" has left the region is not a lesson in what will have to be done in the future in order to avoid new tragedies, but rather a detailed and accurate photo of the human misery which permits and magnifies natural disasters.

"MITCH" IN CENTRAL AMERICA

 For the Central American region, the passing through of the first hurricane and then a tropical storm, "Mitch" through four of the five nations on the isthmus has left more than death and disaster. It is said that the sequel to be dealt with as a result of this natural phenomenon implies a reversal of 20 years for the economy of the region, for which reason the situation has been called the worst disaster in the last thirty years. Even the economies which had recently shown signs of recuperation, such a the Salvadoran economy —if the macroeconomic indicators, at least, are reviewed—, the damage registered to date represent a serious lack of balance in public finances. The behavior and movement of "Mitch" still terrorizes the area, even more so because of the announcement that this storm had gathered strength and had begun to move towards the much battered region of the state of Florida in the U.S.

 For these and many more reasons, to evaluate the situation of the most affected countries is a task which should not be overlooked. The storm provoked by "Mitch" has only just begun if we take into account the social, ethnic, political and economic conflicts which have begun to affect the stability of each country. What this rapid evaluation of the tragedy aims to do is to motivate an analysis after the fact concerning the precarious situation of the Central American economies and how such a precarious situation constitutes a detonator for any kind of situation.

The catastrophe which struck the Honduran population after the devastating passage of "Mitch" is far greater than the disaster occasioned by another climatological phenomenon in 1974: that of Hurricane "Fifi", the outcome of which was more than 10,000 dead. For eight consecutive days Honduras suffered hurricane winds and rains which continuously beat entire communities, totally devastated the industrial and agricultural structure and made the country one of the hardest hit by the deadly passing of the hurricane. The most recent official figures are an estimated 6,420 dead, 10,114 wounded, 5,807 disappeared persons, 590,863 homeless and 812,719 evacuated. The report, furnished on November 4 by the National Emergency Commission registered, moreover, more than 1,411,452 persons without homes.

"Mitch" affected 70% of the Honduran mainland. Agricultural production, which accounts for close to 25% of the whole economy of the country, was particularly damaged. Seventy percent or more of the foodstuffs which Honduras produces in the countryside —as much for national consumption as for export— was lost as a result of the disaster. According to declarations by the Honduran President, Mr. Carlos Flores, entire fields of banana, coffee, melon, watermelon, African palm, tomato, basic grains and other cereals disappeared. The coffee and banana harvests, which are the principal sources of income in Honduras representing 50% of total export profits, have been practically irreparably damaged.

Mr. Carlos Lanta, Assistant to the Ministry of Agriculture, indicated that Honduras needs to import large quantities of corn and beans because thousands of acres of agricultural land have been destroyed. "The situation is horrible. There is damage everywhere. Almost all sectors have been affected throughout the country: roads, harvests, infrastructure", Mr. Lanta indicated. Foreign agricultural experts are collaborating with the Ministry of Agriculture in documenting specific details of the cultivated areas in order to obtain exact figures for the losses. This state ministry published, on November 2, that the coffee harvest suffered "enormous losses", but could not yet provide figures.

Mr. Lanta indicated that highways had been destroyed together with coffee plantations and that communication with coffee-growing regions is very difficult, which makes transportation to the areas affected to the ports impossible. The major coffee-producing areas have been damaged, even the central region of Libertad which produces 30% of Honduran coffee. The Honduran Institute for Coffee (IHCAFE, for its initials in Spanish) declared, last week, that the losses in the 1998/99 harvest could be "incredible" unless immediate efforts are made to repair roads and the infrastructure damaged in the cultivated zones of the whole country.

Mr. Fernando Sanchez, Vice President of the Tela Railroad Company —one of the North American banana-growing transnational corporations which operate in the country—stated that, for the first time in its history, Honduras will not export bananas next year given that the whole harvest was lost. A first balance sheet evaluation of the destructive effect of "Mitch", published on the second day, established the fact that 8,270 houses were totally destroyed, another 3,084 damaged and 16,330 flooded. He added that swollen rivers had destroyed 78 bridges and there are another 7l partially damaged on highways throughout the country.

Moreover, 7 important highways were destroyed and another 37, of lesser importance, have been affected. Diverse analyses declared that "the country has lost the results of 30 years of effort to construct the infrastructure for production and highways". According to the Vice President of Honduras, Mr. Bill Hendal, the economic costs of the growing catastrophe are 850 million dollars on the Atlantic coast alone. The Minister of Finance, Ms. Gabriela Nuñez, calculated that the country would need at least 2,000 million dollars —the amount of the current foreign debt— in order to recuperate.

Aid services continue trying to rescue hundreds of persons who are still on the roofs of their homes or strapped to the branches of trees. Rescue units have had to confront innumerable obstacles; among these being the lack of rescue units and difficulties in arriving to the areas where the victims are. According to reports by the Costa Rican newspaper, LA NACION, "in the flooded banana-producing regions, some parents are doing what they can and jumping into the putrid waters to get green bananas to feed their children, while others are simply eating the leaves from the trees".

On Day 3, Carlos Flores made a desperate call for help to the international community to begin the reconstruction of the country in which he declared that it was not possible to accomplish this year nor the next. "There are many municipal capitals which have begun to run out of food and drinking water. The very capital of the republic is in a situation of disaster and calamity", stated Mr. Flores. "Flooding of the rivers, break ages in dams and mountains have caused some townships and villages to disappear from the map and entire suburbs of the cities no longer exist", he added. "From the data which we have been able to gather," he insisted, "we have a panorama of death, desolation and ruin throughout the national territory. There is almost no part of Honduras that has not been touched by the disaster. The pathos of these data will surely increase in the measure that we manage to gain access to the areas which are still isolated".

The threat of hunger has fallen on a large part of the Honduran population. Reports from the 18 departments of the country indicated that food was getting scarce and many stores had closed because they were not able to supply themselves. In the rural area, the lack of supplies is even more serious than in the urban areas. Water supplies have been interrupted and electricity is only sporadically available. The government has ordered a rationing of fuel, drinking water and food. Serious social problems are feared as a result of the food crisis. Of the 6.1 million people of Honduras, 80% are living in conditions of poverty. The prolonged scarcity of foodstuffs could cause social decomposition, especially among the poorest sector which cannot buy food to store. Mr. Kalvin Wedle, vice president of the Honduran congress stated that "there are no words to describe what is happening to us; nothing that could be said would describe it.

The disaster following the climatological phenomenon "Mitch" has found its principal expression in the human tragedy being experienced by the least protected and marginalized populations of the region. In Nicaragua —the second poorest country in Latin America— the situation was particularly dramatic, given that five communities (Tolojar, Ojoche, Versalles, Los Zanjones and El Porvenir), located on the slopes of the Casitas volcano in the Department of Chinandega, were virtually erased from the map when a landslide of mud and stones, which broke away from the volcano’s crater, buried them in a question of minutes. According to the Vice President of the Republic, Mr. Enrique Bolaños, of the communities inhabited by some 4,500 persons, which, at the present moment, only 200 have been found alive. Approximately 80 square kilometers of the terrain have been covered in mud. That same night, a second landslide took place on the other side of the same volcano, although on that occasion all of the population had already been evacuated.

Two days later, a macabre scene brought the tragedy again into focus: some 200 bodies appeared floating in a river near that place, presumably carried there by the force of the mudslide. A climate of uncertainty dominates the country and the international community owing to the fact that the authorities are confronted with the problem of establishing a figure for the dead as a result of the passing of "Mitch" which is more or less accurate. This difficulty is not only owing to the slow rate at which the aid units are responding to the situation, but also to a lack of reliable census figures from which an approximate figure can be estimated. In this sense, it is curious that, as we can confirm the data for the Casitas catastrophe, the official figures do not exceed 2,500 deaths. Likewise, it is calculated that "Mitch" affected some 500,000 homes, although other reports indicate that the figure could be more than a million.

Other important damage has been documented, the effects of which can already be observed on the streets of Nicaragua: the effects of the destruction of a good part of the crops. Without accurate data, the Nicaraguan Commission for Coffee (CONICAFE, for its initials in Spanish) recognized that between 20 and 25% of this year’s harvest was completely lost, indicating that this was a "conservative" figure. Matagalpa and Jinotega, two of the departments, which were hardest hit by the meteorological phenomenon, produce 80% of Nicaragua’s coffee. The damage to seedbeds of basic grains such as beans, corn, sorghum, soy, sesame and others, according to reports by the Nicaraguan Association of Producers and Exporters of Non-Traditional Products, revealed total losses which will even affect future production. Just as in the case of coffee, almost the entire harvest of these products was concentrated in the area most affected by the disaster. The lack is now being felt in the country’s markets.

The government of Mr. Arnoldo Alemán has acted in a very questionable way in the face of the national disaster. According to what diverse reports—both national and international--reflect, the population is expressing a generalized feeling of abandonment and desperation as a result of the president’s attitude. In the City of Dario, 200 kilometers from Managua, the inhabitants threw rocks at Mr. Alemán as a demonstration of their rejection at being abandoned at the most difficult moments of the crisis.

Moreover, when the president announced his decided rejection of allowing Cuban doctors to come to the country to attend to the population, everything indicated that, far from taking a committed and coherent attitude towards the suffering of the nation, Mr. Alemán continues to be bound by his ideological prejudices and the political benefits which he believes he can obtain from the situation.

To this is added the fact that Nicaragua was the country where the issuance of the decree declaring a state of emergency was delayed the most, even when faced with the imminent arrival of "Mitch", so that there would be no illicit handling of international aid, according to statements by Mr. Alemán. Several non-governmental organizations which operated in the areas where the greatest damage by the hurricane was expected, repeatedly called upon the president to decree a state of emergency and hurry, thereby, the work of the rescue units and international cooperation.

In the opinion of Cardinal Miguel Obando y Bravo, the resistance of the president to declaring a national emergency was based on the marriage of the liberal government to the private banking system of the country. Once the crisis was officially recognized, many credits and loans would be routed towards the reconstruction of the country, damaging, in his way, the bankers’ interests. The possibilities that foreign investment would grow would be, thereby, foreshortened as the country accepted that it was on the verge of economic ruin.

In Guatemala, the effects of "Mitch" did not reach the magnitude that they did in Honduras and Nicaragua. The number of dead officially reported up to and including November 2 was 157, with 250 disappeared persons. Nevertheless, the Guatemalan capital is seriously hit, several zones having been left in dangerous levels of flooding. In outlying areas, 330 villages were the scenes of several mudslides, occasioning 44 dead. In damage to the infrastructure, the country is in a precarious situation. The Ministry of Communication reported that 30 sections of highways and 22 bridges were in bad condition, and that this caused isolation from the capital and other zones of the country. In summary, the reconstruction of these highways will cost 200 million quetzales.

The country’s harvests did not escape the storm. Coffee —as in Nicaragua and Honduras— is one of the products which has most concerned the agricultural sector. Losses came to 450 million quetzales, according to the National Association of Coffee; that is to say, close to 25% of next year’s production, while other non-traditional products (principally to cultivation of sea foods) registered a loss of up to 40 million quetzales. Most of the areas where sugarcane is grown are partially flooded, giving rise to the announcement that the harvest of this product will be delayed for two weeks or until strong rains have subsided sufficiently. The situation obliged President Alvaro Arzú to declare a state of calamity throughout the country in order to facilitate the work of rescue crews and in order to encourage the citizenry to participate in these activities.

When the worst had passed, the government announced, on November 4, that it would implement a "National Reconstruction Plan", for which it would need an investment of an estimated U.S. $75 million. Some ministries reallocated part of their budgets to the aid. Nevertheless, neither Mr. Arzú himself nor the heads of the National Fund for Peace (who will coordinate the plan) could give specific data on the areas to be included or how the 80,000 persons affected by the storm would be benefited. For the moment, the magnitude of the damage has not yet been fully evaluation, which would have had to precede the announcement of the plan in question. The international community, therefore, will have to be on the alert concerning the administration of the aid.

Of all the countries of the Central American region, Costa Rica was the least affected by the passing of "Mitch". According to unofficial figures, there were 4 deaths in Mexico and another 3 in Costa Rica, Panama and Jamaica. Belize is one of the least affected nations. The major losses caused by the hurricane in Costa Rican territory are in agriculture and in highways. According to preliminary estimates issued on day 2 by the National Emergency Commission (CNE, for its initials in Spanish) and authorities for the agricultural and livestock sector, damage is estimated at U.S. 3.5 million.

The principal effect in agriculture was felt in coffee, rice and sugarcane harvests. The total amount of losses in these crops is more than US $2 million. To this figure must be added some products not yet documented, such as the case of coffee in the southern area of the country and milk production in other areas of Costa Rica. Mr. Jorge Fallas, regional director of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, explained that preliminary data for losses in coffee plantations was the early ripening in this area which could be account for U.S. $1.7 million. The impact on coffee plantations is owing principally to the fact that the plants were damaged, the lack of infrastructure for transporting the coffee and the proliferation of sicknesses.

Damage to the highway infrastructure was calculated by the Ministry of Public Works and Transport (MOPT, for its initials in Spanish) was U.S. 1.2 million, approximately the amount that will have to be invested in the 52 highways, both national and rural, which were affected. Several communities in the south of the country were in communicate and in others the population had problems mobilizing themselves because the highways were closed as a result of landslides. With regard to housing, Mr. Jose Antonio Lobo, Minister for housing, declared that he still did not have a full count of homes affected, but reported an estimated 96 in the southern area.

Data published on November 4 revealed that in the Central American region there were some 10,700, including figures for Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador taken as a whole. Likewise, the number of disappeared persons was more than 8,000 and the number of homeless was an alarming 2,463,000. It is assumed that a tenth of the population of the whole isthmus, some 33 million inhabitants, has been negatively affected. Material damage reached millions of dollars given that in large part the principal sources of income and the highway infrastructure of the region’s countries have been seriously affected.

In view of the delicate nature of the situation, fundamental lines to be followed by the governments of the region ought to focus on prioritizing expenditures destined towards the reconstruction of the various countries. The problem is that in situations of emergency such as those through which we are now passing, there exist great probabilities that the resources which should serve to alleviate the crisis might fall into the hands of those who aim to benefit personally from them. In this sense, without an adequate effort by monitoring organisms and audits of public finances, we will with difficulty be able to see the fruits of the "reconstruction" reach those who most need them.

With this analysis we do not aim to throw the whole responsibility of such a delicate task onto the governments, given that not even with the best effort on their part can they cover the losses caused by the disaster with the resources which the region has. International collaboration is fundamental in order to move forward in a satisfactory manner. The President of Mexico, Mr. Ernesto Zedillo, as he made an urgent call to his U.S. counterpart, Mr. Bill Clinton, summed up the perspectives of the situation on the Central American isthmus in the following way: "Only a multinational operation of great effort and force can avoid a human and social tragedy without precedent in the history of Central America."

HARVESTS. Coffee, sugarcane, and bean harvests have been the most affected in El Salvador as a result of the tropical storm "Mitch", whose losses could approximate 238 million colones, according to statements by some of the coffee growers. Likewise, they explained that the rains had provoked a decrease in the production of coffee of approximately 200 thousand quintales, the equivalent of some 175 million colones. Basic grain producers stated that the harvest—estimated at one million quintales—could be reduced to almost 10 to 15 per cent. According to the producers, the foregoing could cause an increase in prices, although the Ministry ofAgriculture and Livestock (MAG, for its initials in Spanish) did not agree with this possibility. MAG argued that "the constant rains had caused traders to draw upon their reserves in order to prevent these from being ruined by humidity", for which reason it is hoped that during the first few weeks, beans will be sold at a lower price. Nevertheless, the producers explained that the rains caused a freezing of the bean plants, to the point at which production will be decreased. With respect to sugar, Mr. Juan Jose Acevedo, representative of the sugar cane producing sector, estimated that the reduction of production for sugar cane for 1998 and 1999 would be by some 100,000 tons of cane, which is to say, some 10 million colones (LA PRENSA GRAFICA, October 17, p. 26 and EL DIARIO DE HOY, October 17, p. 32).

NICARAGUA. The President of Nicaragua, Mr. Arnoldo Alemán, declared three days of mourning at the same time as he announced the plan to respond to the tragedy caused by hurricane "Mitch". This plan contemplates a package of economic, social, financial and technical aid measures to reconstruct the country. The figures for the disaster, according to statements by the neighboring country’s Defense Minister, Mr. Pedro Joaquín Chamorro, reveal that "some 1,000 and 1,500 people have died" as a result of a landslide in the northern part of the country. This number could rise to 2,000. The Nicaraguan Red Cross stated that there are some 1,900 disappeared persons and the government estimated that the material damage and losses rose to some U.S. $25 million. The Nicaraguan government solicited a U.S. special helicopter for disaster situations. Likewise, he asked for aid from international organizations in order to deal with damage caused by the hurricane. "Given the lack of medicine and indispensable foodstuffs to deal with the emergency, we are soliciting international aid," stated Mr. Alemán. According to official sources, one of the areas of Nicaragua hardest hit is the area on the slopes of the Casitas volcano, which suffered a huge landslide (EL DIARIO DE HOY, November 2, p. 35).

HONDURAS. Hurricane "Mitch" left 317 dead in Honduras, more than 600,000 homeless and 30% of the homes destroyed. Likewise, the Honduran economy is paralyzed, communications destroyed or blocked and a threat of epidemics for the lack of foodstuffs, medicine and water which is growing greater each day. The disaster affected the whole country, including the capital city of Tegucigalpa, where rivers and streams destroyed up to 30% of the homes and 20% of public services. The mayor of that city, Mr. Cesar Castellanos, died when the military helicopter in which he was flying over the capital crashed. On the other hand, some 40 bridges were downed in the country and all ports on the Atlantic side were closed for the whole week. A member of the Permanent Commission on Contingencies (COPECO), Mr. Anael Perez, given the situation, stated that "the economy has been tremendously hard-hit, there is a huge amount of damage and damage to thousands of homes and thousands and thousands of compatriots". Data from COPECO demonstrate that some 6,000 homes, in their majority those of families of scarce resources on the Atlantic coast, were destroyed. For her part, the Finance Minister, Ms. Gabriela Nuñes, said that there exists a "plan for the reconstruction of production and infrastructure, health and education" which will enjoy the support of the international community (EL DIARIO DE HOY, October 30, p. 29 and November 2, p. 38).

DISASTER. The National Emergency Committee (COEN, for its initials in Spanish) stated on November 4 that the evacuations in the eastern and western part of the country are still continuing. The new relocations imply an increase in the number of homeless, and the last figure is 57,777 homeless. Nevertheless, the department hardest hit in terms of homeless, is Usulután. The figure there rose from 22,143 to 29,389 persons. According to the latest report from COEN, the number of dead as a result of "MITCH" is 239, registering an increase of 14 persons with respect to the previous figure of 225. Likewise, the number of persons who are without homes is 12,777. In other news, the Minister of Education, Ms. Abigail Castro Perez, declared that the damage caused by the storm to public schools and national institutes could rise to 40 million colones. She estimated that each school lost some 50,000 colones in furniture alone, as well as didactic material and equipment. According to a preliminary balance elaborated on November 2 by the Ministry of Education, there are approximately 818 educational centers affected. In this sense, the heads of the Ministry of Education have solicited approval of a loan from BID for U.S. 70 million dollars for the reparation of damages. For the moment, public schools in good condition are being used as shelters for some 13,300 homeless (LA PRENSA GRAFICA, November 5, p. 5 and 16).

AID. On November 4, it was announced that several countries have begun sending technical, food and economic aid to El Salvador as it faces the situation resulting from the passing of "Mitch". The World Food Program and the governments of France and China have been the first to send donations. The World Food Program announced that deliveries of food for some 15,000 persons "were on the way". A team of French technicians arrived in the country in order to support reconstruction in the most affected areas such as the eastern region of the country. On he other hand, several truckloads of food and clothing were sent from the National Emergency Committee (COEN, for its initials in Spanish). Private businesses donated 10,000 bags of drinking water and 40 tons of corn flour. For its part, the Embassy of China gave half a million dollars to the Salvadoran Foreign Ministry. With regard to the distribution of the donations, the Foreign Minister, Mr. Ramon Gonzalez Giner, explained that the COEN, the Minister of Health and the National Secretary for the Family are charged with distributing the aid according to classifications. At the same time, he said that private businesses are handling and monitoring all economic cooperation which is being received. According to diplomatic sources, the aid could be dispatched on November 5, but this has still not been confirmed (EL DIARIO DE HOY, November 5, p. 4 and LA PRENSA GRAFICA, November 5, p. 2).