A worrisome political scenario

President Alemán’s lands

Salvadorans and the 1999 presidential elections

A WORRISOME POLITICAL SCENARIO 

The last presidential elections of the twentieth century in El Salvador are fast approaching. The new government, if it really wishes to respond to the problems of the country, must take up enormous challenges in the struggle for social and economic development, diminishing poverty, unemployment and the renovation of the situation of agriculture. At the social level, the new government will have to resolve, in the short term, the scourge of insecurity resulting from crime and violence as well as violence in its most serious manifestations —homicide, robbery, rape, kidnapping, etc. An additional challenge is the growing ecological deterioration which the recent tragedy which hurricane Mitch brought in its wake. All of the above renders the most seriously unprotected sections of the population even more vulnerable.

There is no doubt that, although with all of the conditioning factors to which it is subject, the government apparatus is an entity which can do quite a lot to resolve the most pressing social and economic problems of the majority of the people. For this to be the case, however, its work must be oriented in a way that is distinct from the orientation it has had during last decade of the twentieth century. In reality, the governmental administration of the two ARENA governments has favored the interests of the richest sectors of the country to the detriment of the interests of the greater part of the Salvadoran population.

As a consequence, a change in the direction of the government ought to take responsibility for the common good because, on the contrary, the dynamics of social and economic exclusion will continue to prevail. With a change of government, a new opportunity for reorienting the direction of the country can be seen on the horizon. But in order for this change to materialize it is going to be necessary to be able to depend on better talents and capacities —beyond mere good intentions. But given the political offerings which are presented, and given, as well, the banner under which they are offered, the future does not indicate that these talents and capacities will have the opportunity to put themselves to work for the good of El Salvador.

In March, 1999 a new president of the republic will be elected. Aside from whether this occurs in the first round or not, there exists a concern about the possibility that ARENA might control the executive office for a third period because it would not be impossible that the inertia which has characterized ARENA’s second period in office might continue through a third administration by the same party. Should this be the case, nothing appears on the horizon other than a governmental administration characterized by being "more of the same". Of course, assuming that Francisco Flores wins the elections, a change in the rhythm and direction of the presidency might be a possibility to consider. But given what has been noised about up to this point by the ARENA candidate, it does not appear that he will be willing to break the mold of the construct of political-empresarial power which the two previous administrations have followed.

On the other hand, political practice in our country is burdened by a rather heavy ballast which must be taken into account so as not to create false expectations about what can be done successfully in the future. In an electoral period such as the current one, reflection on those ills becomes an imperious necessity because from that perspective the most serious situations can be anticipated and alternatives prepared in order to confront them.

At this point in time, political practice is not especially associated with precisely honorable characteristics. Among the most worrisome are the following: (a) corruption and dishonesty; (b) professional incompetence which many times borders on the most obvious ignorance; (c) predominance of private interests over and above the search for the common good; (d) antidemocratic elitism; and (e) the existence of a political class resistant to renewal from within. These factors have contributed to a situation in which politics as a profession or activity lacks prestige because the deepest ethical values which should be part of politics —the search for the common good, public and private honesty, openness to the best solutions which could guarantee the reign of justice— have been left to one side. In El Salvador, the practice of politics has broken with the ethical-normative criteria which are, precisely, those which have always made it a prestigious and socially necessary activity.

The foregoing aspects have had a harmful effect on the social body: they have fomented apathy, lack of confidence, a lack of respect for laws and social irresponsibility. From the exercise of politics values contrary to the strengthening of democracy and its institutions have proliferated. Traces of an authoritarian political culture, which prevailed in the recent past —characterized by the rule of the strongest, discretionary practices among public functionaries, threats and blackmail— have, therefore, found a ripe climate for reproducing themselves in post-war El Salvador.

Those primarily responsible for this are the political parties and their leaders because they have not known, have not been able or have not wanted to make themselves credible and worthy of confidence. It is as if the parties and their leaders opposed critical participation of the citizens in matters of national interest; it is as if the parties and their leaders find in the apathy so prevalent among the citizens a support or watershed for their own mediocrity and dishonesty. This evaluation is confirmed by the attitude assumed by Mr. Francisco Flores when presented with the possibility of a presidential debate with his principal political contender, Mr. Facundo Guardado. Mr. Flores has preferred a one-directional proselytizing activity —he and his advisors being those who decide what to say and how it should be said, while the public only listens— to a serious and critical discussion of his proposals. Thus, the ARENA presidential candidate has deprived the citizens of being able to count upon the basic elements of political analysis which permits them to cast a mature vote.

Salvadoran politicians drag along with them a limitless train of vices and limitations, which they must get rid of if they are to become agents for democratization of the country a real potential. It is not clear how they are going to do it; what is clear is, owe that, without any drastic transformation in the exercise of politics, the lack of confidence which the people feel towards politics —and politicians— will continue to deepen. A new government represents a new opportunity to deal with the country’s serious problems. It is devoutly to be wished that whoever takes up the reins of the presidency will take advantage of this possibility.

PRESIDENT ALEMAN’S LANDS 

The governmental administration of President Arnoldo Alemán is more and more opaque and less and less transparent. It is difficult to discern if the hurricane Mitch accentuated this tendency or not. What is clear is that after Mitch the denunciations of irregularities which place the president of the republic, his family and allies have increased and these same denunciations place them at the head of a series of businesses from which many personal benefits accrue to them as a result of occupying state positions. The noisiest of these denunciations has to do with the thousands of acres of land that the president had been acquiring in recent months throughout the country by means of rapid operations and transactions in which public functionaries participate and for which they are paid immediately and in cash at huge prices or laughable prices, according to who is selling to the president.

It so happens that some of these lands are, by chance, situated close to important tourist projects. Others are close to the ecological reserve of Chacocente, in the department of Rivas —the last redoubt of a dry tropical forest on the Pacific coast of Nicaragua—, to which irreparable damage was caused when a highway was constructed, at Alemán’s orders. Some of these highways which lead directly to these properties were constructed by enterprises belonging to friends and relatives of the president, who took advantage of the "emergency" provoked by Mitch in order to avoid the need for public bidding. All of these lands, when they pass into the president’s hands, have been immediately re-evaluated with new highways and roads, the installation of electrical energy, the drilling to wells and other improvements offered to the new owner by the institutions of public services...Everywhere there is scandal with a capital S.

The president admitted that he was buying the lands, although he did not clarify where the money came from for the implementation of these operations. He characterized these improvements, which surround his new properties as "works of progress". This makes clear who is "progressing" by means of these projects. When the communications media began to take up the topic, he discredited them sarcastically, saying: "We are," he said, "a government who knows how to proceed with progress, who knows how to make of its projects a bridge to lessen the gap between rich and poor, which, without stooping to the level of populism, knows how to combat the leftover aftertaste of the oligarchs who are entrenched in sectors which were not and are not —nor can they be— capable of using power to construct a more just, stronger, more stable country which we ourselves are doing. This is what is happening behind these news reports which so frequently appear against the government". When the state comptroller Augustín Jarquín solicited detailed information from the president about his patrimony in relation to these purchases, the response of his personal secretary was sarcastic: this person sent the comptroller to review the registers of property which exist in the whole country and stated that it was "child’s play" to attempt to investigate the situation.

How are we to hold back this return of the large landholders who, for other reasons as well, are supported by the corruption and ambition of the government? Among multiple consequences, Mitch also opened anew the process of international scrutiny in a Nicaragua more and more forgotten by the world in recent years. But these new windows opened on the panorama of the country do not seem to hold back the president in the irregularity of his activities. This may be because he and his allies know that they still enjoy a wide margin for maneuvering and, therefore, of impunity.

Any reconstruction project for Nicaragua by the international community ought to take into account the level of corruption which exists today in the country and the complicity in the form of immunity and impunity through which the political system is passing. If this is to be avoided, they could be collaborating in the "reconstruction" of personal fortunes. Is it possible that pressure from external cooperation has something to do with this? It may be able to do something, but one should not harbor too many illusions. To stop the corruption of those in the higher echelons and to react against the corruption at the lower echelons is an eminently "national" challenge.

Among other reasons, the globalization of the international economy. When the government reached an agreement with the IMF, this organism immediately released the loan agreed upon and the only condition consists basically in that the government firmly maintain the economic policy agreed upon. The so-called external, or, foreign, cooperation releases the loans for the projects depending on an evaluation by the IMF and the World Bank without conditioning the aid on whether these organisms support the economic behavior of the government in question or not. The criteria of the international community for evaluating this behavior is generally centered on macroeconomic indicators. If the government does not comply with the established objective on the question of the fiscal deficit —if, instead of a deficit of 5%, the government allows it to rise to 6%, the IMF gives the government a bad mark. According to the degree of lack of compliance, the IMF could suspend all monies programmed for release. When this happens, the international organisms give the country a bad mark and suspend its funds, and foreign cooperation follows suite and does the same. A chain reaction is produced.

But if the government abuses or makes inefficient use of the funds it receives from international organisms, or of the funds received from international cooperation, no sanction is identical. There are, in fact, practically no sanctions. If, in the current context of the government, President Alemán does not comply with the IMF accords, he runs a very great risk, but if he diverts funds, manipulates projects, plays in favor of his allies in contracts or tries by all means to lower the prestige of or remove the Comptroller with the objective of doing away with the monitoring function of that institution, there will be few among those offering international cooperation who will take note of these attitudes as economically retrograde or who will negatively evaluate the economic administration of the government.

Perhaps it is for this reason, as we have already insinuated, that the government seems willing to continue with this lack of transparency. In fact, Alemán took advantage of the occasion of the meeting in Washington of the Consultative Group to take a new step in testing the water and advancing in an objective from which he has not deviated since he took power: that of delegitimizing the General Comptroller of the Republic ( CGR) and removing its head, Comptroller Agustín Jarquín. Alemán formally requested President Clinton's support for creating an "independent" organism which would supervise and control transparency in the process of reconstruction after hurricane Mitch. This organism would complement CGR and would be made up of Nicaraguans and representatives of the countries, which cooperate with Nicaraguans and by representatives of the countries which cooperate with Nicaragua. For the implementation of this work, the government would contract an international firm of auditors. At the same time, on January 10, 1999, when he presented the report of his second year in office to the National Assembly, Alemán insisted in the creation of "another" Comptroller's Office.

Jarquín reacted to the presidential announcement with the caution for which he is known and by calling to mind what is a well-known fact: that, according to the Constitution, the CGR is the highest body for monitoring the state and is, therefore, autonomous. He indicated that what is fundamental in Nicaragua is respect for the judicial context which establishes the laws and empowers the institutions which already exist and he requested a copy of the project for the new institution, but did not receive it. Weeks later it was learned that Jarquín —who today heads the organization of monitoring organisms for Central America and the Caribbean— will promote a monitoring proposal for aid after Mitch at the regional level of Central America in which an international auditing firm coordinated by the monitoring organisms of the region and respecting the institutionality of each one of the countries. This project will be presented by the Consultative Group which will meet during May in Stockholm.

Mr. Pierre Schori, current Minister of Cooperation and ex-Prime Minister of Sweden, stated, during the Consultative Group's meeting in Washington (and he repeated it afterwards in Managua) that the reconstruction of Central America requires, above all, a change in attitude. This is the most pressing change at the moment. But unfortunately each day's actions continue to demonstrate that, in the highest levels, this may be very difficult to accomplish.

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This article presented by "Equipo Envío" of Nicaragua.

SALVADORANS AND THE 1999 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 

Some 35.3% of the Salvadoran public is very interested in going to vote during the presidential elections next Sunday; March 7, according to the most recent poll by the University Institute of Public Opinion (IUDOP) of the "José Simeón Cañas" Central American University (UCA) in El Salvador. The poll was designed and implemented with the objective of learning how Salvadorans feel and how they define themselves politically during this electoral process. The poll was carried out between February 6 and 11 o this year with a national sampling of 1542 adults in the urban and rural areas throughout the length and breadth of the fourteen departments of the republic. The poll revealed that 22.6% have "some" interest in going to vote while 41.8% have little or no interest in casting a vote to elect the president of the republic.

According to the results of the UCA poll, during this electoral campaign, Salvadorans do not appear to be very highly motivated. The polls demonstrate that the population does not have much more interest and confidence in the process than it had during past elections.

Two of every three Salvadorans stated that they had little or no interest in the electoral campaign begun last November while one of every three affirmed that they had some or a great deal of interest. A comparison of these results with those obtained in previous UCA polls indicate that the level of interest in the electoral process has lessened since last year.

On the question of the population's confidence in the electoral process, the results show that Salvadorans are divided. Some 49.9% holds that they have a lot or some confidence in the electoral process. On the other hand, 49.1% stated that they had little or no confidence in it. When they were asked directly about what they thought of the transparency of the elections, 34.4% affirmed that the elections would be clean while 37.8% believe that there will be fraud. The remaining percentages responded that they did not really know if the elections would be clean or not.

When the Salvadorans who were polled were asked if Salvadorans "were eager to go and vote", the responses were almost equally divided in half. Some 47.1% affirmed that Salvadorans are eager to vote while an almost equal number, or, 46.6% affirmed the contrary.

Moreover, when the population was asked if there would be abstentions or not, some 69.6% stated that they thought there would be a high level of abstentions. The reasons presented are eloquent. Some 36.3% said that they had no confidence in politicians while 19.9% held that politicians are not worth anything and so it would be a waste of time and, 11.1% said that they did not like the candidates or the parties. Finally 11% said that people are simply not interested in politics, among other responses. On the other hand, the people who believe they there will not be abstentions (22.2%) argued that people want a change (39.1%) because there is enthusiasm (28.5%) and that going to vote is obligatory (25.4%), among other reasons.

The poll revealed that what continues to be a prevailing opinion among a good part of the Salvadoran population is that elections do not work for changing the situation of the country"; 53% stated that "no matter whoever wins the elections, things will stay the same". When people were asked if the elections would contribute to solving the problems of the country, 47% said that the problems would continue to be the same while 29.7% held that the problems would be resolved and 9.3% affirmed that the national problems would get worse. The rest of the people responded stated that they did not know how to answer the question.

On the other hand, the IUDOP poll asked the citizens to indicate what would help the country to improve in the future. The responses were divided in the following way: 17% stated that ARENA would win the elections, 25.2% said that what would help is if a strong leader from another party who might appear and 19% stated that if another party would win the elections and 10% held that the country would improve if the FMLN won. Some 14.2% held a different opinion: that only God can help to improve the country. The rest who were questioned chose not to give an answer.

Respondents were also asked to react to the following phrase "what this country needs most is that another party should govern it". To this, some 46.1% were very much in agreement or somewhat in agreement while 37.2% said they were not in agreement with this proposition.

The UCA poll introduced the topic of what the electoral preferences of the respondents were by asking them about ARENA and about the FMLN separately. In the case of ARENA, 54.3% stated that another opportunity ought to be given to this political party because their candidate presented a new image of the party. On the other hand, some 37.5% held that ARENA should no longer govern the country. In the case of the FMLN, 56.5% of those consulted believe that the FMLN is not prepared to govern and 35% considered that they ought to be given an opportunity to take office and change the country.

On the question of the small parties, the UCA poll demonstrated the existence of divided opinions. Some 30.5% considered that the small parties ought to unite among themselves and 27.8% held that they ought to stay they way they are while 19.8% indicated that they thought they should disappear and, finally, 16% stated that they ought to form an alliance either with ARENA or with the FMLN. The rest did not answer.

The UCA poll explored two matters on the question of the candidates themselves. One, on the level of knowledge of —or recognition of— the presidential candidates themselves held by the people consulted held of one or the candidates and, secondly, the level of sympathy for each of them by assigning a grade of between 0 and 10 to each one.

The most renowned candidate is Francisco Flores with 89.2%, followed by Ruben Zamora with 82.4% and Facundo Guardado is known by some 81.6% of the people while Rodolfo Parker is known among 64.1%. Each of the rest of the candidates is known by at least 50% of the population.

In terms of image or evaluation, the ARENA candidate received the highest average qualifications (6.84), followed by Ruben Zamora (5.57), Facundo Guardado received an average of 5.22 and Rodolfo Parker 5.13. The rest of the candidates received average grades of below 5 points.

Moreover, those consulted were asked to indicate a preference among those who were running for the office of president. Some 45.4% chose Francisco Flores, 12.5% chose Facundo Guardado, 11.9% chose Ruben Zamora and 4.8% chose Rodolfo Parker. The rest of the candidates did not receive more than 2.5%.

The UCA poll was interested, as well, in measuring the sympathies of the people for the various political parties in three different ways. Each of the three methods used yielded similar results. In the first place, the respondents were asked to participate in a simulacrum of the voting process, using a ballot similar to the one which will be used on March 7 and maintaining strict confidentiality. Secondly, the respondents were asked to identify the party of their preference. Thirdly, those questioned were asked to express a preference as to which party they would vote for if the elections were to be held the Sunday following the poll.

Among the preferences for a party, 32.7% stated that they had no preference, 36.2% indicated ARENA, 12.2% indicated a preference for the FMLN. Some 4% chose the PDC and 3.4% preferred the CDU. The rest were divided in their choices of other parties or preferred not to state a preference. Of those who expressed an opinion as to who they would vote for, the percentages increased for the majority of the parties. ARENA obtained 40.7% while the FMLN obtained 14.9%. In this case, however, the CDU obtained 5.4% and the PDC 4.2%. The rest of the parties showed no increase. Finally, in the simulacrum of voting, ARENA obtained 40% of the vote, the FMLN obtained 16.9% and the PDC and CDU weed tied with 5.6% each one. In summary, the results indicate that the first place is held by ARENA with between 36% and 40% of the votes and this party is followed by the FMLN with percentages ranging between 12% and 17%. The PDC and the CDU were tied in third place with approximately 5% while LIDER disputed fourth place with the PCN.

The last pre-electoral poll carried out by IUDOP of the UCA revealed that the population is not especially enthusiastic about the electoral campaign. Many people are not sure if they will vote or not and perceive that the rest of the people feel the same way. On this basis the inveterate lack of confidence in the political system appears to continue together with the perception of the limited use which elections have in order to change the conditions of life and those of the country in general.

Although a good part of the population seems not to be in agreement that ARENA should continue in office, there is another percentage of Salvadorans who are disposed to offer it another opportunity to govern because they cannot find another attractive political option. ARENA’s lead is to be explained, moreover, by an appreciation of the image which their candidate projects rather than a fundamental sympathy for the party. The FMLN, for its part, seems to be holding on to its hard vote, but seems to have lost some segments of the population which have supported it in the past.

The small parties such as the CDU, PDC and LIDER appear to be taking over certain possibilities in peoples' preferences. In some cases these people are led by a preference for those who make up the presidential formulas, while in other cases people appear simply to be moved by their dislike for some of the big parties.

San Salvador, February 16, 1999.