Proceso, 857
June 2, 1999
Editorial
Politics
Politics
Economy
EDITORIAL
In spite of the fact that he had committed himself solemnly to build a just society as the most expedient way to open up opportunities for equality; and, in spite of making an effort to generate hope and open horizons, promising stable work, better education, preventive and general healthcare, a reactivation of agriculture, strengthening public security, decentralizing the state, promoting culture, sports, and recreation as well as protecting the family —in a word, to take up again the inconclusive agenda of the previous government— in spite of having insisted on the participation of the citizens, shared responsibility, common destiny, leadership in the construction of the future, in synthesis, in the need for a great alliance at a national level to resolve the enormous problems of El Salvador, Francisco Flores, in his first speech as president of the republic, was unconvincing.
He was unconvincing because he did not establish priorities nor articulate tasks. Specifically, because he did not specify how he plans to implement the social agenda maintaining the current economic policy. It has been demonstrated that with this economic policy, agriculture cannot be reactivated, nor steady employment generated, nor broad coverage and improvement of the quality of education and health, nor the promotion of the development of very small, small and medium-sized businesses. In order to do all of this, direct, firm and intense state intervention is necessary —and this is contrary to the orthodox neoliberalism of his economic team. An unexplained possibility could be to finance this agenda with the new millionaire loans which El Salvador just managed to obtain in Stockholm as a result of hurricane "Mitch".
So then, another problem, which President Flores evaded, arises: the economic recession which threatens the country. A source of unquestionable credibility for official circles predicts economic growth at 1.5 percent for this year, which is below the calculations made by the government and very much below the minimum necessary to begin the root out poverty. This means that the macroeconomic indexes do not enjoy such fine health as it would seem. The government does not ignore this reality, but it does hide it by manipulating figures and publishing biased and partial information.
By not clarifying the structural relationship between social and economic policy, the Flores government promises to be more of the same, although perhaps a little better. This perception is confirmed by the make-up of the presidential cabinet. In the key posts for directing economic policy are to be found functionaries of the previous government. In fact, Flores never promised to review this policy and, although he spoke of ending paternalism and privileges, he is surrounded by capitalists who have prospered thanks to the protection of the ARENA governments. So it is that, when there is something new, these same people rise in the social sphere, taking up responsibility for government portfolios where young. Well-prepared functionaries are to be found. So then, their capacity to act is limited by the availability of resources.
Focus is much lacking in the presidential discourse. It begins by asking "who are we to be able to be able to envision where we are going" and "how should and how can El Salvador be in the twenty-first century" without providing a specific response. The president is evasive and young people, existence and time, the individual and society, the need for "harmony" and freedom are referred to without any well-defined objective. When he finally appears to have found the connecting thread, the topics of a national agenda come tumbling out without any logical order: employment, education, health, water, decentralization, culture, art, sports, recreation, family, security, macroeconomy, very small, small and medium-sized businesses and agriculture. Other topics of equal importance have stayed on the hard disk: corruption, women and children, human rights, environment, free trade agreements, regional integration and international relations.
A specialized treatment of each of these topics cannot be expected. What is noticeably lacking is an articulated vision of the country and of what its government will be during the next five years. More can be expected of a president who is being touted for his youth and his foreign university titles. A president who wishes to hear only what pleases him is unconvincing. To dispatch the opposition with "debate is sterile if it is not edifying" and that "criticism, if it does not make proposals and guarantee the best proposal, is useless" is too brash from a president who has hardly begun. This demand, as well as the isolation from which Flores formed his government team, does not augur well for the process of democratization. His authoritarian character reveals itself ever more clearly.
One cannot enter into an alliance with a president who promises "to maintain and sustain unharmed" the legacy of Cristiani and Calderón, because that implies being an accomplice in the cover-up of massive human rights violations by the Armed Forces of the "Tandona" and in particular the massacre at the UCA, with corruption and illegal expropriation from the bank by some various capital and because that is also equivalent to becoming an accomplice in financial fraud and the illegal expropriation of state bonds by some few privileged persons. Moreover, because all of this means becoming an accomplice to the accelerated impoverishment of the majority of the Salvadorans. To accept this legacy is to become part of it.
The naming of Mauricio Sandoval as director of the National Civilian Police is part of the legacy of Cristiani and Calderón that Flores is committed to conserve and maintain. Sandoval was the head of communications for the first and a spy for the second. Whatever may be the mission with which the new director of the police is charged, whatever may be the expectation which is had of him and his work, his being named to this post is not only unjustified but makes it very difficult to collaborate with a government which temporizes with crime, lies and injustice.
The construction of a just society which Flores proposes as a task for himself during the next five years is too pretentious. It would be sufficient just to lay its foundations. The basic premise —or, rather, the lack of it— in his first speech does not allow for much room to hope that the society will become more just and solidary under his leadership. And while it remains unconvincing, in the measure that it does not become credible or inspire confidence, the idea of constructing alliances remains empty rhetoric.
POLITICS
There is no doubt that the only thing that can be doubted about the recently elected president of the republic is his ability to make the country’s public opinion revolve around him. The first time it was the launching of his pre-candidacy. It may not be out of place to recall the optimism which was generated around the supposition that, for having emerged from the new generation of ARENA, and not being linked to any of the inner circles of the governing party, Francisco Flores would bring about the internal renovation of ARENA.
But it was true that "Paquito" was indeed linked with some of the "hard liners" of his party —none other than the Armando Calderón Sol group. The first indication of his agile political astuteness did not only respond to the "dewy freshness" of a young outstanding ARENA militant. Nevertheless, with all of the comments that he was so linked, the complement that "Paco" was perceived by Salvadorans as an audacious and intelligent aspirant for the presidency was achieved.
In a second moment, the now-president began to present himself as an example of tolerance, moderation and democratizing aspirations. And so optimism grew once again and "Paquito" began to be recognized for his conciliatory and intellectual qualities. But his was only another illusion; an illusion which was dissipated when, during the last phase of the electoral campaign, Flores placed every possible obstacle in the way of a presidential debate and finally —using the traditional arrogance characteristic of ARENA members— refused to participate in it.
Once the president was elected, "Paco" himself applied a third coup de grace to the naiveté of public opinion by announcing that the election of the presidential cabinet would be open to all social entities who were interested in participating in it. And so a new wave of optimism: "Paquito" went against the ARENA tradition —represented by his "enemy" Cristiani— and began his mandate by showing that his intentions to re-make politics in El Salvador were sincere. This turned out to be another deception: the polemical election of the presidential cabinet turned out to be far from what was expected.
One single fact is enough to give an idea of how the selection process of the cabinet was far from having been as democratic as promised: Not even private enterprise was taken into account in the process. ANEP itself —whose voice has always been an echo beyond the limits of what is healthy for the democratic transition— complained that neither Flores nor any of the members of the "technical commission" was destined to be chosen as the new heads of ministries were given the courtesy of having the telephone calls responded to. As things go, could the rest of the social sectors expect to be listened to by "Paquito" and his people?
Other evidence that the election process in question ended up being just another "move" by Flores in order to continue to present an image as someone who loved democracy may be found in the results of the elections. Escobar Galindo, member —but there is more— of the aforementioned "technical commission" stated in a recent publication that the meaning (referring to the new cabinet) of "outside" was "the immense majority of those who make up that team come from outside the party".
But before swallowing this evaluation whole, as positive as it is at first glance, it is perhaps useful to take certain truths into account. The first is that six of the ten ministers-elect (those of the Treasury, Public Works, Interior, Public Security, Health and Education) had either held posts in past ARENA administrations or had been members of the "technical commission" —which means that they elected themselves— or that they were active members of the ARENA party. And this without counting the rest of the cabinet posts in which the situation ought not to vary in any great degree.
The fact that Flores accepted —or had to accept— that Mario Acosta Oertel stayed on as Minister of the Interior, on the one hand, and that Mauricio Sandoval assumed the position as Director of the National Civilian Police, on the other, gives the lie to his greatly publicized (and believed by many) impulse towards renovation, interest in being independent of the party line, desires to be democratic.... Nothing in the history of these functionaries, who now occupy decisive posts in the consolidation of democracy, demonstrate that his ideals coincide in anything with those which "Paquito" is said to defend.
That people so linked to the deathsquad past of ARENA continue handling such power allows for nothing more than the awakening of serious doubts as to the possibility that Flores will comply with his promises, but above all, doubts as to his intentions to comply with them. Until now, "Paquito" has shown himself as the most well-intentioned of the politicians in the country and as the most willing to translate those good intentions into concrete acts. So then, taking into account the few acts which can be taken into account, it is not difficult to give notice that in none of them has the president shown any real signs of change.
Given the rising expectations resulting from his supposed independent launching, "Paco" maintained a strategic and convenient silence. Faced with the citizen demand for a presidential debate, it was he who decided to object with the most absurd conditions and finally disqualify and reject the possibility of the debate. With relation to the election of the cabinet, it was Flores who promised that this would be democratic and who, in the last analysis —basing himself on a mechanisms which was never made known— chose his work team from among five hundred curricula. With "Paquito" one must proceed with caution. To allow oneself to be swept away by optimism, indicating the "novel" character of the cabinet, would lead one to yet another deception.
From the old ARENA friends who are going to continue to hold governmental posts one cannot expect great changes. From the new heads of ministries who do not make up the organic part of the party, one must say that this, in and of itself, guarantees nothing. First of all, because many ARENA allies who are not members of the party are as much "areneros" —or more so— than party militants; secondly, because it is yet to be seen if Francisco Flores is nothing more than a well positioned facade which has allowed his party to rise from the ashes of discredit and win the presidential office once again.
Should this last assertion be, in fact, the case, as independent and professional as the heads of ministries might be, there is very little which that independence and professionalism can actually do during ARENA administrations. Many insist on giving the president the "benefit of the doubt". Other speak of the possibility that now is the hour for hope and it is too soon to start criticizing the incoming government.
We do not intend to fly in the face of such optimism. What else, in the final account, is left to us but to hope for a good administration? After all, El Salvador could wait five years for positive surprises. Nevertheless, to prepare ourselves for a disagreeable state of affairs is never a useless act Also, to become overly enthusiastic so soon could be dangerous and Flores has shown signs of being disposed to be enthusiastic without, thereafter, having to actually produce the goods.
POLITICS
The enigmatic Flores, little by little, drop by drop, has begun to show signs of what might be expected of his administration in the coming years. He has already begun to distance himself from the qualities which, at the beginning of the campaign defined him in an unequivocal manner (intellectual, conciliatory, reformist, for example). Flores has ended up by unveiling a personality which can be said to be ambiguous and unpredictable. A personality in which florid discourse and the ever-present smile do not suffice to cover up the unpleasant signs which characterize those who are, at heart, true ARENA members: hermeticism, authoritarianism and arrogance.
It is not a coincidence that a large number of analyses about the future which awaits El Salvador under the Flores government are present in similar questions such as: Five more years of the same? Does Flores harbor a true reformist tendency? Will there be a change in the way the country has been led? So that these questions might be answered in a decisive way, evidently, one must await, at least, the evaluation of the first year of his administration. Nevertheless, what he demonstrated during the inauguration already allows one to sketch out what Flores will give of himself the coming period.
Flores and his publicists made of the inauguration an act of total exaltation of his person, while he laid heavy emphasis on form while paying little attention to content. On the one hand, by means of technological subterfuges carefully dissimulated, Flores showed himself to the public as an intellectual portent who was capable of presenting an awesomely lengthy speech without help from anything other than his own memory (a feat which, in and of itself was transcendent, impressed spectators accustomed to the weaknesses and limitations which have characterized Salvadoran presidents). On the other hand, who knows if it was planned ahead of time, i.e., that he could count ahead of time on a public which cheered and interrupted him with untiring rounds of applause. What ought to have been an occasion to be seriously and thoughtfully explicit about the concrete policies of his government was converted into a spectacle in which deceit and adulation went hand in hand.
In a complementary way, the event was accompanied by simultaneous broadcasts all the same on every national television channel with star reporters throwing themselves at Flores’ feet. Emulating the "Cuatro Vision" style of televising, the journalists became governmental spokespersons who repeated as slogans some of the phrases from the Flores speech and held simulations of interviews in which the president elect was mounted on a pedestal of perfection. The unfailing adulation of those present at the inauguration was echoed by the adulation of the media which participated in the national simultaneous broadcast. So it was that the transmission of the inauguration became a field of glory for the new Salvadoran "caudillo".
Neither did Flores’ speech escape the pre-eminence of form over content. Abundant in poetic figures ("mythical millenary magic") and pseudo-philosophical sallies ("it is not time which has carved our existence, but what we ourselves, having use of the time, forged of our own life"), the speech completely passed over fundamental aspects of Salvadoran reality and those aspects which it did, in fact, take up, were presented in a distorted way (according to his reference to "street vice", vagrancy and anti-social conduct by young people are effects of a simple lack of centers to channel the use of leisure time). It was not out of line for the speech to be touted as mere "rhetoric" by members of the FMLN who attended the event. It was rhetoric wrapped in words of pallid wit, but rhetoric all the same.
What took place during the inauguration was unnecessary. The country did not need such an event of symbolic national importance to be dedicated to the pomposity and applause of this figure in particular and it was not a prerequisite that Flores continue to hide behind the shield of florid verbiage with the objective of hiding his specific and concrete plans. Flores has begun his mandate by reproducing the play of images and the propaganda which has accompanied him from the beginning of his launching as a presidential candidate. And this is cause for concern. First, because it was not at all clear if behind this figure there exists a current of different or individual political attitudes. And, secondly, because, obsessively centered on himself, Flores continues to evade focussing one the concrete problems faced by the country.
Francisco Flores is becoming a wizened cardboard figure. The spectacle mounted to celebrate his arrival to power says much to this effect. If five more years of the same ARENA is something serious enough already, five years with the Francisco Flores as he has been seen to be up to this moment would be something even more serious. There will be posing, spectacle and warm applause for the "caudillo", but little or nothing of political, social and economic change which a country —poor and violent such as ours— needs.
ECONOMY
On June 1 the new ARENA government, headed by Francisco Flores, presented in his inaugural speech the principal sketches of what his governmental policy would be. In reality, some already knew each other as they were included in his governmental program of "The New Alliance", which assumed as central objectives: "to increase employment and productivity; generate opportunities by means of decentralization at the local level of services and an increase in social investment in education, health, water, and housing; to guarantee security and justice [and] provide development in harmony with the environment".
The inaugural speech deals with the majority of these aspects, some with less precision than others, but the inexcusable omissions of the need for policies to increase social spending and harmonize economic growth with environmental preservation are evident. It is notable, moreover, that —in contrast with his predecessors— the new government no longer deals explicitly with the ideas of favoring "the poorest of the poor". On the other hand, emphasis is made on the promotion of education and employment as the only solutions for marginalization and poverty.
The principal offerings of the inaugural speech on questions of economic and social matters are presented in summary below, not only with an eye to examine their relationship with the central objectives of the electoral platform, but also to reflect upon their viability and effectiveness as proposed measures.
On social questions, the new government proposes to promote employment with just and appropriate salaries because, as was mentioned above, the speech considers this as the only solution to marginalization and poverty. On the other hand, it points out that in order to generate wealth, education is necessary and, to achieve this the proposal is to increase educational levels. Education would also serve as a form of "compensation for social inequality". On this very point he added that he would again take up the educational reform and would incorporate new technologies in order to improve the quality of instruction.
On health questions, he proposes a reform policy which would liberalize services by means of "mechanisms for paying", especially for municipalities and churches which make up the national health system which emphasizes prevention and promotion of health.
On economic questions, what are contemplated are macroeconomic questions as well as sectorial policies for agriculture. In this way what is pointed out is that, although we have "inherited a robust economy", stability and predictability are needed in order to increase the confidence of local and foreign investment and for this the elimination of exchange risks is proposed. Along these same lines, he offered to modify the judicial context in order to avoid future devaluations which, in his judgment, "favor special interest groups". In addition, he proposes the following large objectives: to maintain health public finances, to protect private initiative but also "facilitate the growth of those productive sectors ... [which are] in a weakened state" by means of fomenting competition among the very small, small and medium-sized enterprises in "context of freeplay".
Sectorial policies on agriculture would aim to create jobs by means of greater factibility and competition and would be grouped in three principal areas: infrastructure (roads in rural areas, the construction of irrigation systems and the provision of ways for post-harvest storage), a process by which agricultural businessmen would join in associations in order to take advantage of some economic levels and, finally, a policy for financing, by means of which small credits from the Banco de Fomento Agropecuario would be promoted. On the other hand, he offered to improve the system of information on prices, market and technology and foment the creation of a stock market for agricultural and livestock products.
These elements of the presidential speech serve as a first group of indications about the possible policies which his government will pursue. In the first place, the premise that employment is the "only alternative against marginalization and poverty" totally contradicts the reality of the country. According to official figures, unemployment is currently at levels close to 7%; the levels of poverty at a national level, however, are higher than 50%. Additionally, minimum salary levels —which are applied to a good number of jobs— are much below the levels defined by the same official figures such as for the threshold of poverty. The minimum wage is currently 2,260 when the cost of the basic food basket in a broad sense is more than 3,000 and the food basket alone is approximately 1,800 colones. This is to say that salaried jobs at the minimum wage do not allow for the possibility of overcoming the problem of poverty.
The promotion of education, on the other hand, does not guarantee, in and of itself, that better conditions will be generated for the creation of wealth or social compensation, but it is a totally necessary measure for the insertion of El Salvador into the world economy which up until now has been limited to international investments in the maquila garment shops where the workers are paid a minimum wage. The creation of wealth implies, moreover, the promotion of education and the fomenting of productive investments, something which is not mentioned in the speech under discussion.
Other measures, such as the "elimination of exchange risk", the adoption of regulations which would guarantee a "health and public finance system committed to the country as a whole" and the fomenting of competition among the very small, small and medium-range enterprise, does not, in reality, offer anything new. This is not the first time that an ARENA government offers to maintain a fixed exchange rate, reduce the fiscal deficit and foment very small, small and medium-range enterprises; in fact, the offer is already to be found among the political policies of the first ARENA government (1989-1994), without these promises having been complied with.
A little more of the same can be said about fomenting agricultural and livestock production. The two preceding government administrations have offered concrete measures for stimulating the growth of this sector: the Cristiani administration proposed sectorial policies for agriculture —these were, in fact, among the most well developed in the government plan—, while the Calderón Sol government, on repeated occasions, offered to reactivate agriculture and even presented a "Plan for Agricultural and Livestock Development".
These last offers along with the fomenting of very small and small enterprises, the generation of "work with fair pay" and the control of the fiscal deficit, for example, are a dead letter now a decade after they were originally formulated. Agriculture is still submerged in the most serious crisis of its history; very small and small business ventures confront difficulties arising from the opening up of the economy and their marginalization from credit; the minimum wage is very much below the poverty line; the fiscal deficit has not been controlled and is expected to increase during 1999.... Growth and stability have only been possible as a result of external resources and not because clear well-balanced economy policies have been adopted (see Proceso, 856).
Francisco Flores’ speech contains many of the factors which had been offered by previous ARENA administrations and he does not indicate what the concrete measures for achieving these elevated goals will be. Some of the large gaps in his presidential discourse on economic and social questions are: measures which would permit attracting and channeling better budgets for social spending, which would increase salaries or facilitate channeling private banking credits towards agriculture and very small businesses, for example.
Given the foregoing, one is led to believe that the new government will offer more of the same: large offers which are impossible to achieve with the extreme measures for liberalization of the economy characteristic of ARENA administration political practice.
NEWS BRIEFS
BUS DRIVERS. The Legislative Assembly has declared that it will not exonerate busdrivers and drivers of microbuses from the payment of fines for having violated the Traffic Law. "The Assembly is not permitted by the constitution to pardon them", stated Legislative Assembly president Juan Duch. On May 26, members of the Salvadoran Association of Busdrivers (AEAS) announced a labor stoppage affecting all of its buses on May 3 to apply pressure for the lifting of the debt. On this question, the President of the Legislative Assembly described the measure as "pressure which the people would reject". According to Duch, "to pardon the debt would be to cheat the law". "That they are asking that, as they ignore the law, so we should ignore the Constitution and this is not possible. If they violate the traffic laws does not mean that we will violate the constitution", the functionary emphasized. He added that dialogue would be the best solution. "Personally, as a deputy, I am not in agreement with pardoning the fines. This would create chaos.... There are people who have already complied with their obligation... and today those who are irresponsible do not want to do [the same]", he stated. Duch considers that this sector has the capability to pay the debt because they have allowed themselves the "luxury" of not working (referring to the proposed labor stoppage) (La Prensa Gráfica, May 28, p. 4).
PRESIDENTIAL CABINET. A dozen persons reviewed more than 500 curricula of an equal number of candidates for the presidential cabinet. Federico Huguet, member of the so-called group of "notables" which would counsel the president-elect, Francisco Flores, revealed, on May 29, that the entire cabinet "has passed through his hands". He denied, however, at the same time, that there had been pressure applied in favor of nominating some of those who had been "recommended". The process of choosing, however, came under questioning from sectors which maintained that, contrary to what Flores announced, they were never consulted. The business associations declared that they were not taken into account in the process of choosing the new functionaries. Huguet stated that he did not know if there had been pressure applied in other areas, but "in the consultative group no suggestion of this kind was to be seen". For example, he continued, "I was unaware that President Armando Calderón or [ex] president Alfredo Cristiani had sent a list of people [whom they] recommended". He revealed that, in order to avoid the possibility for pressure or curricula of "recommended" persons, the consultative group agreed not to consider the names of people in this category. He explained that the mechanism was that profiles were linked, in the consideration of each post, to the problems of the country and adapted the government plan accordingly and so candidates were considered (La Prensa Gráfica, May 29, p. 4 and 8).
