Proceso 869
September 8, 1999
Editorial
Gangs and the challenge they represent
Politics
Economy
The reactivation of agriculture?
Public Opinion
Salvadorans evaluate the first hundred days of the Francisco Flores administration
EDITORIAL
The problem of "gangs" seems to be becoming a more and more serious and difficult problem which seems to be less and less amenable to solution. The authorities seem not to be able to deal with the matter, either for incompetence, ignorance or bad faith: the society at large looks upon this phenomenon with astounding passivity, powerless to do anything, as groups of young people savagely attack each other as well as bystanders who because of some necessity or because they just happen to be on the site of what suddenly becomes a battlefield. Important and well-documented studies have established a very well defined profile of gang-members: family origin, social and economic conditions, aspirations and values. It is clear, on the basis of these studies, that diverse social and cultural factors have forced these young people to move to the outskirts of society and to challenge, from there, the social order which does not offer them respect, support or friendship.
No one can doubt that society has a debt pending with these young people, the presence alone of which indicates that something is rotten in the state of El Salvador. It is also undeniable that the authorities are under the obligation to design and implement mechanisms which go beyond crude coercion, making the necessary distinctions which the phenomenon of gangs present in terms of cultural needs, psycho-social trauma, social resentment and criminal practices.
Simplistic analyses must give way to rigorous analyses and conceptualization which is capable of dealing with the phenomenon of gangs in the fullness of its complexity. It is not clear to what point the authorities are willing to go on this point, given that the reduction of the problem to its criminal dimension facilitates things. But, in the measure that this focus is not drastically changed, the authorities will continue swimming upstream against the current. The same will occur in the society as a whole: as long as it is not clear that what is open to condemnation in the gangs are their violent activities and not their clothing, tattoos and graffiti —which there is no reason to associate with violent activities— there will continue to be intolerant attitudes which in no way contribute to the necessary establishment of a dialogue between gangs, (as they pose social and cultural challenges) and the rest of society.
So then, up to this point it is clear that the authorities as well as society as a whole have a responsibility concerning gangs which they may not shirk. But this responsibility should not be tainted —or it should be tainted as little as possible-with an exaggerated paternalism which, making gang-members victims of inexorable social conditioning— they are human beings with the capacity to reason and measure their actions with greater or lesser clarity. This is to say that they are, when there is no mental impediment, responsible for what they do; for which reason they must be seen and dealt with not as puppets driven by circumstances—which ought to receive a little or a lot of society without giving anything back--, but rather as individuals who must actively intervene in the solution to the problem which affects everyone.
Set in motion to work in this way, a topic which should not be left to one side in the dialogue between gangs, society and the authorities is the topic of death. Acts such as what took place in Ciudad Barrios (San Miguel) prison, where a conflict between Mara 18 and Mara Salvatrucha left one member of Mara 18 dead, captured in the mêlée by members of Mara Salvatrucha, took seriously the second part of the phrase: "I live for my mother and I die for my neighborhood" which many gang-members take up in a radical way. There is a cult of death —and this limits the possibilities for what is human—, but not only the death of the adversary, or rival gang-member--, but of one’s own death which, as some evidence indicates, many gang-members take up with the greatest determination and which leads them to challenge danger in startling and shocking situations.
From the point of view of living together in a society, this is serious, given that one of the fundamental consensus points of a society is that of continuing to be a society which lies in the desire of its members to live in a biological sense. It has been and is normal for a social grouping to attempt to wipe out the other and viceversa, but, looking inward, even the most militant defenders of biological extermination of another human group —the Nazis, for example— want to protect their own life, in the same way that their victims wish to preserve their own lives. But what happens in a society in which some of its members —a significant group— have decided that their own life is not worth preserving and that death is no longer a limit? Well, speaking simply, this society can be said to be dying at its roots, in such a way that basic social consensus —that consensus which impedes the atomic destruction of a planet in forcing the Cold War to come to an end— is being broken up by one sector of the society.
In practice, this is translated into a situation in which those who have decided to go beyond that limit represented by death have the advantage over those who consider that live is of supreme value. That advantage facilitates blackmail and threats. Roque Dalton, in his book, Pobrecito Poeta que era Yo, exemplifies the "advantage" which he who assumes death with respect to he who resists accepting it. The history here is more or less the following: Dalton, when he was in the hands of some CIA agents who had captured him, threatening him with death, one good day accepted this fact as something which he could not oppose. This, as Dalton recognizes, gave him a moral advantage over his captors, who did not understand that their principal instrument, that of threatening —the most radical— was no longer an instrument. Dalton’s lucky stars —at least in the novel— caused an earthquake to open a break in the wall of his cell from which he escaped with life and limb intact.
In the case of Dalton —in the way in which he sketches out the event in the novel mentioned above— it is clear that a critical situation was what led him to accept death. What are the critical situations which led many members of the gangs to accept, and even seek, death and to inflict it pitilessly way on their "enemies"? How can they be convinced and made to feel that life —their own life— ought to be preserved and defended for everyone and, above all, by them and for themselves? These are questions requiring an urgent response because only when we have some clarity on these points will it be possible to penetrate those symbolic, psychological and social walls which isolate the gangs from the rest of society and within which violence and death are fomented.
POLITICS
ARENA and El Diario de Hoy have taken it upon themselves to clear up an error, and it is that the low evaluation which the citizenry gave the Flores administration as it completed the first 100 days is not a result of the president not understanding and not having made his the problems of the Salvadoran people. It is, rather, the case that the Salvadoran people have not understood the problems and ideas of their president. Reading the declarations of some of the ARENA deputies and of the El Diario de Hoy editorial —which, perhaps, for some slip appeared on the first page of the national news section— it is obvious that some terrible injustice is being done to Flores: the efforts and intelligence of this man committed to those whom he governs, have not been understood by a population accustomed more to the "bandstand of big dialogues" and "the presence of a leader who can present multiple solutions".
So it is, then, that Flores’ strategy of distancing himself from the press and direct dialogue with the central sectors of the country in order to find "isolation and silence in order to think", has been interpreted erroneously by the population not wanting to confront the problems and of wanting to avoid the problems for which he has no response. One might read his new way of governing in the same way: delegating to the ministers the responsibility of responding to public opinion about their respective areas and taking the role of "bandmaster". Briefly, Flores’ sin consists in having been generous in sharking power and seeking a space in order —intellectual that he is— to think intensely about the direction of the country, without thinking ahead that the businessmen —too much given to pessimism— and the social and labor organizations —frightened by the FMLN’s "destabilizing activities"— do not comprehend the reach and importance of his new way of doing politics. It is not the case that Flores resists adopting the role for which he is responsible in the difficult moment through which the country is passing; rather, he is thinking and delegating. People should comprehend this and leave him in peace.
At bottom —at least according to El Diario de Hoy and ARENA— Flores’ problem is one of communication: he speaks and acts in a language which the population is not capable of understanding. This explains many things. It explains, for example, why the greater part of Salvadoran society —ARENA party members and morning newspaper editors are, of course, not included in this majority— do not understand the presidential discourse; why the ministries have not yet presented their various portfolios: just as in the case of the "bandmaster", they are thinking in a productive and momentary retreat from action; why the president and his cabinet have not decided to engage in dialogue with the sectors who are demanding this: dialogue and the noise which accompany it are contrary to the new way of doing politics.
The analytical moment opened up by Flores’ administrators —those in the group who coincide with him among the group of those not understood by the population—, is also fruitful for understanding appropriately other dynamics and situations currently affecting the country. For example, in the case of the diversion of funds to the ex–Civil Patrol Agents, the turning over of 10 million colones ought not to be seen as a misuse of funds and a corrupt purchase of allegiances. Rather it should be understood as a well-intentioned act in which the government was candidly deceived by the perfidy of the leaders of the ex–Civil Patrol Agents of APROAS. This would explain why only they are the object of investigation by the Attorney General and not Calderón Sol or Acosta Oertel. All is reduced to simply being able to understand things in the right way.
Corruption, ineptitude, the lack of commitment to the problems of the country are not what they seem. The underlying factors include people and groups whose actions respond to an incomprehensible logic because of their novelty. The remedy for this is to wait, to have patience and, above all, not to judge because it is not just to engage in judgement upon what is not comprehensible. It is possible to understand Flores. With time and patience it may be possible to discover a great statesman hidden behind the ostensible obfuscation and lack of decision.
ECONOMY
The agricultural and livestock sector is one of the sectors least favored by economic liberalization, even among the most industrialized countries where the viability of agricultural and livestock is only possible with credits, subsidies and external income. In El Salvador, the agricultural and livestock sector has, for some time now, been in a prolonged crisis which, despite the offerings by diverse governments, still has not been health with concretely. It should be remembered that the government of Calderón Sol offered an Agricultural and Livestock Development Plan which was never implemented and which, since 1996, aimed to reactivate agricultural and livestock production.
During the electoral campaign, the current administration offered to implement programs to reactivate agriculture and livestock; moreover, it proposed "to make agriculture profitable again" by means of measures such as the creation of an infrastructure, the promotion of the formation of associations of producers and by financing. Recently, other measures were added such as the incorporation of food products to the category of goods to which the Value Added Tax (IVA) would be added (see Proceso, 861) and the creation of a credit fund for the agricultural sector.
According to President Flores, it is proposed to earmark a total of 1,100 million colones to increase credit for the agricultural and livestock sector and to refinance overdrawn credits. This effort would be divided into two components: a line of credit for 400 million colones which would be channeled through the Banco Multisectorial de Inversiones together with 700 million colones to be used to increase the Fund for the Financing of Agriculture (FINSAGRO). According to President Flores, this would permit "the covering of financing needs which our farmers need in order to break out of the cycle of low prices in which agriculture finds itself".
In practice, none of these measures have been implemented, but one could reflect upon its viability and efficiency, especially in the case of the most recent proposals. The fund for compensation of prices for the coffee-growing sector is currently to be found in a context of a permanent fall in international prices, which has become worse during the last year. As coffee represents close to 20% of the GNP for agriculture and livestock, and its participation has fallen during the past, this measure seems to be on point; nevertheless, its viability depends more on external elements . If the price of coffee goes too low, the fund would become insufficient for maintaining prices at the desired levels, at least until new funding is obtained.
The options for financing recently proposed by Flores will doubtless be a factor in alleviating micro-finances for the farmers, but do not constitute a medium and long-range solution for the agricultural and livestock sector. Currently, it is estimated that a delinquent portfolio of credits exists in amounts greater than 800 million colones in the financial system, for which the 700 million colones have been offered. Although they will not be sufficient to cover the total delinquency in credits, they will represent an important proportion of overdrawn credits. Lamentably, even should it be the case that these funds might resolve the delinquent credit portfolio for the financial sector, the permanence of low prices would provoke a situation in which agricultural and livestock businesses would again incur debts in a delinquent state from the banks in the short or medium range.
In fact, in the current context, the principal options presented to the government in order to stimulate production and income for the agricultural and livestock sector are the assignment of credits and subsidies. Independent of the amount, credit for the sector will be encouraged, but, on the other hand, the topic of subsidies still has not been taken up in a serious way, in spite of the fact that it is known to be a determining factor for the existence of the agricultural and livestock sector in industrialized countries.
Diverse studies of the evolution of the agricultural and livestock sectors in various countries indicate that in order for these to function, an important transfer of resources from other sectors is required. In fact, review of subsidies in those countries halfway through the decade of the 1990’s allows for the observation that subsidies reached an average of 42%, which means that that same percentage of income for farmers came from transfers of resources which did not originate in agriculture. In these cases it has been determined that the governmental transfers have provided the resources to make agricultural and livestock activities profitable once again, to satisfy internal demands for foodstuffs and to guarantee income for farmers. A free market is not always favorable to the agricultural and livestock sector: it can even have the effect of locating it in a critical situation.
In the case of El Salvador, agriculture is confronting a crisis originates not only with the fall in international prices, but also from the low level of technology applied in agriculture and from an inadequate use of the soil, which translates into low production levels. It is difficult to imagine that the agricultural and livestock sector will overcome its crisis by using measures, such as were announced recently —measures such as financing delinquent credits.
It is just as difficult to provide financing for this sector through transfers of income from non-agricultural sources, principally because the state has not succeeded in implementing a tax reform which would generate sufficient income for public spending. Even in recent years, an increase in the fiscal deficit has been felt when the tax reform announced by the government produced a reduction instead. What is certain is that neither the solution to the problem of the fiscal deficit in such a way that one might imagine that the state could transfer non-agricultural resources for the agricultural sector without incurring major external indebtedness. The majority of economic sectors also are found to be in a phase of slow growth which would make it difficult to adopt new tax measures without taking into account that there might be other sectors which would also need state protection.
In this context, the panorama facing the agricultural and livestock sector is not very promising because there still do not exist options which could allow for profitability in this sector and make it viable. The measures proposed by the current administration are not such that they should be taken lightly; however, neither can it be expected that on the basis of these measures agriculture might recover a profit, given that the measures deal only with the manifestations of the crisis and not its causes.
Given the foregoing, the policies to support agriculture ought to be accompanied, as soon as possible, by measures which would pursue improvement in its productivity and its ability to compete through diversification in production, transfer of technology and technical assistance, for example, which could be linked with the credit programs already announced. As they are presented, the government measures appear more to have been designed to face an emergency situation than to lay the foundation for an economic reorientation of the agricultural and livestock sector.
PUBLIC OPINION
Salvadoran citizens gave Francisco Flores’ Administration a grade of 5.76 for his work during the first hundred days of his administration, according to the most recent national poll of the University Institute for Public Opinion (IUDOP) of the Universidad Centroamericana "José Simeón Cañas" (UCA) of El Salvador. The poll, carried out with the objective of learning what Salvadorans think about the work which the Flores Administration carried out during its first hundred days in office, took place between August 25-30 of this year using a sampling of 1,246 adults between the ages of 18 and 85 years of age in all fourteen departments of the country with a margin of error of more or less 4%. A comparison of polls implemented by IUDOP shows that President Francisco Flores has earned an average of less than that obtained by Armando Calderón Sol after his completion of the first hundred days in office. At that point in time, the second ARENA administration’s president earned 6.04.
Almost 50% of those consulted think that the current government is governing "poorly" while a third (or, 34.4%) maintain that it is doing well. The remaining number of citizens did not know how to respond to the question. Nevertheless, when citizens were asked how they thought the FMLN was doing, almost 40% stated that they did not know how it was doing, but 27% stated it was doing worse and 21% said that it was the same and 12% said that it was better.
For a good number of citizens, the activities undertaken by the government up to now have implied a weakening. Some 55.1% of those consulted said that the Flores administration had been weakened by what it had done or for what it has announced that it will do. This may be compared with 31.1% who maintained that the administration had been strengthened. The remaining number consulted did not respond to the question.
Those questioned were asked about what they felt were the principal successes achieved by the ARENA administration during this brief period of administration, but the results indicate that a great number of persons still do not see that any success has been achieved: 53.4% stated that there still had not been any achievements, while 20.9% did not respond to the question. The remaining people questioned were divided into small groups to indicate diverse achievements. Nevertheless, when the topic of failure was touched, Salvadorans seemed more apprehensive: some 15.7% indicated an increase in the cost of living, while almost 10% mentioned a lack of communication with the people. Although in this case, 1.1% said that there had been no failures, the number of faults attributed to Flores seemed to be large, as a result of a large number of opinions concerning his work.
The economy of the country with Flores
Some 86.6% of the Salvadorans questioned during the poll consider that the economic situation of the country continues to be he same or that it has gotten worse during the current administration. It is a situation in which 93.2% of Salvadorans think that the country is undergoing an economic crisis currently and more than half indicate that the current administration is the principal factor responsible for this. Other people indicate that politicians in general, "rich" people and the previous administrations are those responsible for the current economic crisis which the country is undergoing.
When the respondents were asked if the new measures proposed by the government would serve to reactivate the economy of the country, almost 60% of those polled stated that they considered that they would do little or nothing about it; some 25.5% stated that it would help "somewhat" and 10.6% stated that it would serve a great deal for improving the national economy. On the other hand, the majority of citizens —or 62.8%— considered that such measures would only serve to increase the prices of basic food products as opposed to 13.2% who believe that they will continue the same and 12.8% stated that they would decrease.
Other topics
On the other hand, approximately 68.7% of those polled complained that the new administration had listened only a little or not at all to the population at large during its first three months in office. Some 21.7% stated that the government had listened somewhat and 7.7% held that the Flores administration had listened quite a lot.
Concerning the fight against crime, those polled were a little less critical, but the predominant opinion —at least 59.3% of those questioned— stated that the new public security plan is showing little or no results in practice. Some 28.9% believe that it is providing "some" results and some 10.1% of those polled believe that it is showing quite a lot of results.
In spite of all of these opinions, on a personal level, Salvadorans evaluated the behavior of Francisco Flores a little better than that of his administration and of his politicians as a whole. In fact, some 39.8% held that he had done good or very good work; while some 33.1% stated that they thought it was "regular" and 26% said that the president’s work was bad or very bad. For the majority of Salvadorans, the image of the president has remained stable: 58% said that their image of the president had not changed since he assumed office; on the other hand, some 25.8% said that it had worsened and 14.6% held that their image of Francisco Flores had improved.
When Salvadorans were asked if Flores had control of the decision-making power of government, however, some 55.9% said they thought he did not and that the decisions were being taken by other sectors of the government. Some 23% defended the leadership of the president inside the government and 21.2% did not know how to respond to the question.
Social conflicts
A little less than a fourth of the citizen-respondents thought that the recent social conflicts which had occurred in the country were owing to bread and butter labor demands by the population; some 22.3% said that it was owing to the economic crisis which the country is undergoing; some 12.8% signaled the lack of compliance on social and political agreements; some 12.2% indicated a bad governmental administration was at fault and almost 10% said that the conflicts were owing to political manipulation and conspiracy. Two of every three Salvadorans, notwithstanding, showed their disagreement with the labor stoppages and strikes to demand salary increases.
Similar opinions were expressed with regard to the ex–Civil Patrol Agents of APROAS. On the other hand, 43.5% expressed themselves in favor of the demands of the former paramilitary agents, as opposed to 44.8% who said they were in disagreement. On the other hand, only 25.4% were in agreement with the measures taken to apply pressure towards winning their objectives; some 63.9% stated they were opposed.
All in all, the majority of Salvadorans, or, 59.7%, think that the coming months will see an increase in social conflicts, as opposed to 15% who think they will decrease.
Political preferences
The UCA poll did not miss the opportunity for measuring political support offered by citizens to political parties at the current time. Asked to respond to the question of who they had voted for should the elections be held "next Sunday", approximately half of the population did not choose a party, be it because they did not have one or because they did not know for whom they would vote. Among those chosen were the big parties, ARENA and the FMLN outstanding with 23.7% and 19.7%, respectively. Far behind was the CDU, which accumulated 3% of sympathy and the rest of the parties with only 2% among all of them.
In summary
The UCA poll showed that Salvadorans have evaluated the Flores administration with a grade of "regular", although he did not succeed in passing the test of government for his first 100 days. The majority of negative opinions seem to be generated by the economic measures taken by the government which do not favor the majority of the population. In fact, a good number of Salvadorans feel that the country is undergoing an economic crisis generated by the current government. Moreover, citizens seem to minimize the possibility of an opening by the government when they accuse him of not listening to the population as he had promised to do during the electoral campaign. Aspects such as delinquency and corruption (this last does not appear among the data offered in this brief article) are evaluated in a less negative way than the topic of economics, but the evaluation tends more towards the negative than towards the positive.
President Flores seems to maintain part of his good personal image and the positive opinion of his government —when there are some— seem to be more linked to the expectations about what he can do, more than about what, in reality, he is perceived to have done. Linked to that, it is more significant that a good part of the population does not see him as the person who has real control of the government and, therefore, expectations are concentrated in the fact that, as one person interviewed said, "they let him do things".
The general impression of the citizens is that the country is not well and that political leaders are not responding adequately to demands. For the population, social conflicts have their root in the quality of life of the majority of citizens; nevertheless, they do not seem fully to approve the actions taken by some labor and social sectors in order to win bread and butter demands.
The renewed equilibrium among the biggest parties and the small amount of support for the rest of the parties only goes to show that the behavior of the government is again affecting political sympathies, which are turning once again to the well-known disenchantment.
San Salvador, September 7, 1999
NEWS BRIEFS
NATIONAL CIVILIAN POLICE. The new PNC authorities have fired 40 agents for different infractions, according to the Director of the institution, Mauricio Sandoval. The PNC announced that more than 18,000 agents returned to the National Academy for Public Security in order to be re-evaluated, owing to a frequent index of police participation in crimes. For his part, Inspector General of the PNC, Romeo Melara stated that during the month of June there had been 200 denunciations against police agents. The majority of complaints come from inside the police force while the remaining number come from citizens who feel offended. Many of the denunciations are related to not doing their job, mistreatment of drivers during police roadblocks and alcoholism, among others (El Diario de Hoy, August 3, p. 3).
AGRICULTURE. One thousand million colones will be earmarked for the agricultural sector in order to increase lines of credit and refinance overdrawn loans. The economic package is divided into two lines: one having to do with credit in the amount of 400 million colones, being administered by the Banco Multisectorial de Inversiones; and the reinforcement of 700 million to beef up the Fund for the Financing of Agriculture (FINSAGRO). "With these two measure the financing needs of our farmers will be covered so that they can move forward in [the context] of a low cycle of prices for agriculture", declared Flores (El Diario de Hoy, September 3, p. 10).
FLORES. La Prensa Gráfica-Unimer conducted a poll recently in order to evaluate, according to public opinion among the population of El Salvador, the first 100 days of President Flores’ administration. Citizens gave the president a rating of 5.3, this being, on the average, lower than that received by his predecessor, Armando Calderón Sol, for the first trimester of his administration. More than half of those polled believe that the work of the new administration has been good during this period. But, although the man who is in leadership now has not done anything bad, for the majority of persons, El Salvador is not doing well. Four of every five Salvadorans believe that the direction of the country is the same or has worsened since Flores took the helm. Only 15% of the citizens hold the opinion that his or her situation has improved with the arrival of Flores to the presidential office. Flores’ principal problem is that few people know about the measures he has taken, but 80% of the population do not know what the president has been talking about these days. One curious fact that the poll presented is that, the less the population knows about the policies coming from the government, the higher the marks received by Flores from people in general. On the other hand, one of the things which the population hopes most for is that the fight against crime might be one of the most relevant points on the presidential agenda. One out of every four wish to see the problem resolved (La Prensa Gráfica, September 9, p. 4-8).
BANKS. President Flores announced, on September 5, that the Bank of the Republic of China will arrive in the country. According to the president’s announcements, one of the principal objectives of this bank will be to open a line of special credits for exporters. "With a great deal of satisfaction I wish to announce to you that the establishment of the Bank of the Republic of China in El Salvador is a reality", stated Flores, who added that the authorities of this far east country have committed themselves to "financing the effort of our exporters". According to the president, this is a "real opening up of our financial system" which will help in the creation of jobs in the field. In a parallel manner, farmers have seen the fund for financing increased to cover up to 700 million colones in unpaid debts. He indicated, in this context, that his official visit to Taiwan included a broad delegation integrated by members of his cabinet, business leaders and opinion leaders. "One of the components of our strategy for the generation of jobs is an aggressive campaign for promoting the country at an international level. This initiative has, as its objective, the search for new opportunities in foreign investment, commercial exchange and international cooperation", stated Flores (La Prensa Gráfica, September 6, p. 12).