ARENA: on the road to the elections

Education for good?

Economic indicators during the third trimester of 1999

News Briefs

ARENA: ON THE ROAD TO THE ELECTIONS

The state of affairs on the national level in terms of politics at the present time in El Salvador can well be characterized as a pre-electoral period. The political parties are sharpening up the instruments which will gain them favorable results in the legislative and municipal elections of next year. This, in terms of candidacies, campaigns, logistical resources. Evidently, however, not all is running apace as calmly as might be wished: there are disputes, rivalries and a straining at the bit for leadership in the political parties because many of their members see in the elections an opportunity either to win a quota of power on a personal level, or to displace those whom they consider to be an obstacle for winning their own objectives. This opens up a space for internal conflicts within the political parties, and these will surely heat up as the electoral campaign begins to take on a more defined profile.

None of this is anything new: existing rivalries inside the party come to the surface every time it is a question of choosing candidates for public office. What is cause for concern here is that the permanence of that "tradition" progressively wears away what little credibility still exists in the political sphere where solutions to the most serious problems facing the people are up for debate and where solutions to the most serious of these problems are sought. These internal political disputes and rivalries do not contribute to creating confidence in politics, above all when it is evident that they are owing to personal interests and ambitions. Theoreticians are asking about the reasons for the peoples’ lack of confidence towards politics as evidenced in the political practice of Salvadoran political parties. The answer is clear: people have no confidence in politics because it has become a nest of incompetent, ambitious and corrupt figures. It is useless to examine the matter in any detail because examples abound. The lesson, nevertheless, must be repeated over and over again: without politicians minimally committed to the common good, the practice of politics will be unable to turn back the tide of deterioration which is responsible for the corruption it now suffers.

At the present time, nothing seems to indicate that the politicians and the political parties are interested in advancing in the way being pointed out to them. Their immediate concern is the electoral campaign for the year 2000. So it is that, regardless of the requirements of electoral legislation, some have already begun an open electoral campaign. We are referring specifically to the ARENA party and its candidate, Luis Cardenal. There are at least three levels of electoral effort being activated by ARENA at this point in time: first, party efforts to promote Cardenal. Here party meetings count as much as declarations by that party’s president, Alfredo Cristiani: the idea is to present Cardenal as a bulwark of ARENA values, which makes sense outside the party in the sense of creating a space for the ARENA candidate in the collective imagination. Inside the party the objective is to unify the party around a figure who is not identified with any of the factions which currently divide it.

In second place, the self-promotion exercised by Cardenal himself. This self-promotion runs from personal appearances on the television to visiting poor communities in San Salvador, such as the Quiñonez community in the La Chacra zone where he passed out candies to the people living there. Cardenal’s message is unmistakable: that he can do something for San Salvador and its inhabitants because he has the money to do so. The sweets and piñatas are a token of what will come later. In this sense, Cardenal is repeating and selling the traditional strategy of the ARENA party. This strategy is the "only one we can offer as something for the country because we are the ones who have something to give. If the others want to do something, they have to ask us —or take it away from us". This baited hook has already rendered good results for ARENA in the past. Perhaps Cardenal’s advisors consider that it can still be used.

In third place is to be found the support of the communications and news media. There are several examples which might be cited of this kind of support. Perhaps one of the most noticeable, recently, is the offer by the supplement "Enfoques", of the Sunday, 31 October, 1999 edition of La Prensa Gráfica. One of the messages of the reportage, entitled "The Return of Cardenal", is that ARENA is no newcomer to politics; they are not novices, but seasoned politicians. This is to say, he has the most experience, he can take on serious responsibilities with the experience necessary to solve them. Another message is that Cardenal is a good Catholic with well-founded principles and no leanings towards bad practices such as gambling, alcohol, drugs or marital infidelity. The author of the article takes note of Cardenal’s Catholic devotion, which "goes beyond symbolism: he attends mass regularly as well as catechism". A third message is that this ARENA candidate has intellectual talents which link him through family ties with the Nicaraguan poet Ernesto Cardenal. The situation is that, although the candidate for the mayor’s office admits not understanding some of his uncle’s poems (he is his nephew, but only at a second degree removed, given that the writer is his father’s cousin), he has, nevertheless, used some of them on certain occasions.

This, then, is the manner in which the reportage creates a pretty attractive profile of the ARENA candidate as a seasoned politician, a good Catholic and an intellectual. What more could you ask for? In a social and political ambience dominated by neo-conservative attitudes —supported by the news media— a figure like Cardenal would fulfill the expectations of those who believe that the options and beliefs which differ from these should be silenced any way possible. All in all, today, the case is that an electoral scenario is being built in which whatever the traditional vices of Salvadoran politics as they continue to be present. These are: internal party struggles motivated by shady and selfish interests, under-the-table negotiations, dirty tricks and all the rest. All of which only increases the discredit and ill repute of political practice and supports undemocratic solutions to national problems.

EDUCATION FOR GOOD?

The national press has become the wailing wall for public moralism. This time on the occasion of the failed initiative to make the reading of the Bible obligatory in the high schools. That initiative, presented and encouraged by the PCN faction in the Legislative Assembly, was immediately rejected by the rest of the parties who appealed to the right of freedom of religion stipulated in the constitution. Since then, the wives of those from whom the idea presumibly arose have taken up the task of making known to the media their profound disapproval of the resounding "no" given to this measure.

One of them begins her column by asking, " What harm would it do to read the Bible in the high schools?" The answer is: no harm whatsoever. But the question is poorly formulated because the crisis of values is much more complex. To pretend that the solution to the crisis of values can be reduced to dedicating two hours per week to the study of religion is not only naive but laughable. One thing is that the children of the middle class come out of the Catholic schools changed into "people of good" and it is another thing altogether to think deeply about the educational, cultural and social reforms which it is necessary to carry out so that Salvadorans can learn to live in a humane way. To see in the daily reading of the Bible the panacea for the moral crisis which we are confronting indicates nothing more than a surprising blindness as to its true causes.

For a fifty-year-old member of the middle class to have achieved a positive balance in his life has much to do with the variety of opportunities —economic, affective and of other kinds— which he or she can be said to have had since birth, than with the religious education received by this person in high school. It is this variety of opportunities which separates him or her abysmally from the children who grew up in hostile environments, in which they are subject to exploitation, sexual aggression and deprived of what is elemental for human development. These children are, unfortunately, the majority. They are children who must learn to survive in the midst of violence and poverty. And the violence and poverty, far from the convictions expressed by these pillars of morality, are not things which are not matters learned on television.

It is difficult to believe that gang-members would be convinced not to cut each other up with knives in the parks if only INFRAMEN would opt for reading them a beautiful passage from the Bible for ten minutes of each day. They have no reason to do this, just as those who are corrupt, murderers and thieves on a grand scale do not feel obliged to leave off committing their crimes just because they hear a sermon in mass on Sunday. Religion and healthy conduct are not interrelated through mutual implication. One thing does not necessarily bring the other with it and that is a fact which must be recognized so as not to fall into simplistic analyses and mistaken focus. Atrocious genocides have been committed in the name of religion, while many exemplary citizens have perhaps never set foot in a church.

It is not in the Bible where the new generations, who are mostly people who suffer insult and outrage on a permanent basis and who are impotent witnesses of the triumph of evil over good —and not the contrary, as other columnists would set forth—, they must learn elemental values of living together. Where these values must, in reality, be inculcated, is in the very act of living and working together. It would do no good whatsoever to oblige professors to give courses in religion if, in the class, they continue to be despotic and arbitrary with their students, if they offer privileges to those who are from a comfortable economic caste over those who are poor and dispossessed, if they do not attempt to polish and perform their teaching function in a better way.

To demand the institutionalization of a practice which is, in reality, the province of each family, according to their creeds and beliefs, is only a little less than a gross error. The Legislative Assembly’s duty is to guarantee that the state institutions monitor and guarantee the exact compliance with the laws in such a way that the interests of the citizenry function satisfactorily. This depends, of course, on the election of an Attorney General and upon the review of the figures who are, today, in charge of entities in charge of the construction of a sane society: these are the Comptroller’s Office and the Ombudsman for Human Rights.

It is the state’s duty as well to generally provide for the physical and emotional wellbeing of Salvadoran children and young people. We would wish that these proprietary owners of ethical truth would begin crusades in favor of child nutrition and the right to health and education of this vulnerable part of the population in the same way that they engage in moralistic jousting. This methodology would render better results in the field of morality and religion because the road towards good and spirituality is more sure and serious when it begins from spirituality arising from love, protection and justice than from hunger and death.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS DURING THE THIRD TRIMESTER OF 1999

At the close of the third trimester of 1999, the estimates of economic growth have experienced their second readjustment for this year. At the present time, the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) no longer expects a growth indicator of 3%, but of only 2.5% in spite of the fact that it had earlier adjusted the rate from 4% to 3%. On the other hand, an examination of the behavior of the macroeconomic clusters shows that it is important to underline the fact that tendencies towards greater lack of equilibrium are detected as much in the balance of trade as in public finances. These tendencies are not new because the diminution of the rhythm of growth has been especially noteworthy since the end of the year 1995, the tendency toward a lack of balance in the trade balance has stayed the same throughout the decade of the 1990´s and the deficit in public finance has only succeeded in staying under control during brief and sporadic periods.

The fact that the behavior of prices has stabilized is worthy of attention to the point of reducing inflation rates to 0%. In this context, it is opportune to reflect upon the economic indicators of the third trimester of 1999 in order to establish the way in which they have evolved from a situation of affluence (high growth rates, reduction in the fiscal deficit and an increase in exports) to the point that, although it is not critical, it does reflect the wearing down of dynamics which high growth rates and economic stability had provided.

According to the data presented by the President of the BCR, Rafael Barraza, it is hoped that for this year the growth rate of the GNP would reach 2.5%. For Mr. Barraza, "the data we have permits us to project the growth rate for the year 2000 as between 3% and 4%". On the other hand, it is estimated that exports would fall by 2.4% "owing to a lowering of coffee prices by around 30%": nevertheless, the exchange rate held stable "thanks to a record level of Net International Reserves of approximately 2,000 million dollars".

According to the President of the BCR, the inflation rate up through September reached hardly 1.5% and it is hoped that it will drop to 0% by next December. In a parallel way, he mentioned that the credit issued to the private sector hardly reached a growth rate of 4%, with which we see it "demonstrating relative stability given the small demand for credit seen throughout the year".

With reference to public finances, the Minister of Hacienda, José Luis Trigueros, estimated that, for September 1999, tax income increased by 6.4% as compared with the same month in 1998; nevertheless, this was not sufficient to cover the expectations set forth in the financial and monetary program of 1999 (5.87% less than what was programmed, or, an equivalent of 564.7 million colones). All in all, the Minister of Economy, Miguel Lacayo, estimated that the Salvadoran panorama is positive, given that the economy "is taking a turn in an adequate direction", to the degree that "one begins to see the economy in a positive light".

For its part, the evaluation of the current state of affairs conducted by the Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUSADES) exhibits data similar to that presented by the economic cabinet, although it provides a more technical and less political interpretation than that offered by governmental functionaries. According to the data provided by FUSADES, between the months of January and August of 1999, the deficit of the trade balance reached 1,035 million dollars while for the same period of 1998 the deficit had reached 901 million dollars (or, an increase of 14.9%). This situation responds, in part, to a reduction by 4.2% in exports for the period of January through September of 1998 and for January through September of 1999. According to the same source, it is hoped that by 1999 the growth rate of the GNP would reach 2.2%, while the fiscal deficit would reach 3% of the GNP.

Given this data, the Director of the Department of Economic and Social Studies of FUSADES, Roberto Rivera, posed a situation which "for the moment does not show any sign of indicating that the slow growth rate would change in the short run". Independently of the evident discrepancies statistic data, both evaluations coincide in pointing out that the goals proposed for 1999 were not reached, especially with regard to economic growth: this will not be 4% as expected, but only 2.5 or 2.2%, if we stick to the FUSADES estimates. The fact that we are confronting ever greater levels of balance of trade and fiscal deficits, low levels of economic growth, an increase in overdrawn bank accounts and, even, a reduction in financial system profits, the more dynamic sector of the economy for the last three or four years.

Exports have not succeeded in becoming the axis of growth and for September they were less than 1,035 million dollars as compared with imports; even worse, the predominant tendency is always towards the deterioration of the trade balance. The fiscal deficit is also not being turned back, in spite of the tax reforms implemented by the first ARENA administration and have surpassed levels of 1.8% of the GNP and 3% of the GNP in the last three years.

Credit for the private sector has shown a tendency relatively equal to the slow growth of the GNP: it has surpassed growth rates of 30% for the year 1995, for example, and reached rates of only 4%, as the BCR itself recognizes. Coincidentally, it has also been noteworthy that the deficit bank payments have grown significantly during the present year, suggesting that the model for economic growth based on service activities has reached its limits. As an example of this, the financial system will be experiencing a contraction in its profits—contractions which are already evidenced from the period of the first trimester of 1999 and which persist for September.

The only data which appears to offer a positive indication is the inflation rate of 0% expected by the end of the year. Nevertheless, far from being an indicator of good economic health, in reality what is being reflected is a marked reduction in the aggregate demand, compared with which production and the general level of prices is to be adjusted showing little or no growth rate. The contraction experienced in the amount of Value Added Tax, applied to consumer items, during the last trimester is evidence of a reduction in supply and demand.

Faced with this panorama, it is completely valid to propose a situation in which the financial and monetary policy is reflected which, at the same time, would stimulate investment in agricultural and livestock as well as industrial sectors, although this would provoke an increase in the inflationary rate, which could, however, be alleviated by more credit and lower interest rates. Only in this way would the most significant increases in the GNP be achieved in terms of jobs, exports, tax income, and so forth because it is more and more evident that price stability is not and end unto itself.

GOVERNMENT. The governmental Committee for Economic Productivity presented, on October 27, its five year plan focussing greater attention on marginalized groups, reducing the cost of setting up businesses in the country, maintaining economic stability and making respect for a state of law possible. The plan, named "The New Alliance" was presented to the members of the American Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM) by the Ministers of Economy, Miguel Lacayo, Treasury, José Luis Trigueros, of Environment, Ana María Majano, among others. Among the guidelines set forth in the plan, according to statements by the technical secretary for the presidency, Juan José Daboub, is the importance of introducing competition into public services, modernizing public administration and "the elimination of bottlenecks which slow productivity". This strategic plan is divided into the following sections: social prevention, citizen participation, fiscal efficiency, judicial efficiency, social rehabilitation, international cooperation and police efficiency. Likewise, the government has proposed a challenge to maintaining control over inflation or the annual increase in prices by 2.5% throughout his term in office. This means that prices will rise by only 2.5% each year. The President declared that, in the context of this plan, he will do nothing to favor one sector if it affects the rest (La Prensa Gráfica, October 28, pp. 4-5).

STALEMATE. Legislative deputies failed once again in their efforts to elect an Attorney General in voting on November 4. Arturo Argumedo, the independent deputy launched his candidacy for the post but was short 4 votes of being elected. The 52 votes of ARENA, PCN, PDC, PD and PLD taken together with the independent Julio Samayoa and Jorge Barrera of the USC did not make up the two thirds of the total votes necessary to make the election successful. The abstention of the FMLN, CD and USC was decisive in this new stalemate. The no votes of some members of the principal left party withholding their support from Argumedo has to do with problems inside the party. The orthodox wing and the revisionist wing of the FMLN have experienced problems in agreeing upon who is the ideal person for the Attorney General’s office. In meetings held on November 3 and 4 the FMLN leadership decided to join together in support for Argumedo, with the objective in mind of avoiding splits which would affect the unity of the legislative faction. So it was that the revisionists joined the official position of the group headed by Shafick Handal. With the no vote of the FMLN in not supporting Argumedo, the electoral process of the Attorney General moved several steps backwards to the same place it has been for the last six months. El Salvador has now been 128 days without an Attorney General (El Diario de Hoy, November 5, pp. 2-3).

ATTORNEY GENERAL. The Legislative faction of the FMLN tried to elect an Attorney General for El Salvador in voting today. The leader of the revisionist group of the FMLN, Facundo Guardado, let it be known that his deputies would be willing to vote for Arturo Argumedo even if it meant disobedience to the orthodox line of the party, represented by the head of faction and general coordinator of the party, Shafik Handal and Fabio Castillo, respectively. Guardado questioned those members of the FMLN who did not support the independent deputy. "Argumedo, as I have said to him personally, could conduct a good administration. I do not see why the FMLN deputies do not support him," he stated. By the by, Facundo recommended a political way out for the FMLN leadership in order to prevent a situation in which both currents adopted antagonistic positions in the plenary should they not be able to agree on the topic and this gesture made public the strong contradictions inside the party. "It would be better if the faction were left free to vote for whoever they believe to be the best candidate", he advised. And should there be doubts about the position of the revisionists of the FMLN, Guardado emphasized: "I support Argumedo. He is a person who merit becoming Attorney General. There is nothing to be found against him" (La Prensa Gráfica, November 4, p. 8).

ARENA. The ARENA party could explode in crisis if its leadership does not change its "vertical" position with regard to decision-making, advised the ex-leader of the party, Alberto Carranza. His opinion was seconded by opposition politicians. Some of the current ARENA leaders have denied that their party is experiencing an institutional crisis, although they recognize that there are conflicts of interest in the candidacies. Each exodus of sympathizers and leaders from that party is more and more intense, as a result of the last months of disagreement over the nomination of candidates for mayors and deputies, placing in evidence the fact that ARENA is going through "the worst [crisis] since 1997", stated Carranza, who resigned on October 26 from that political party. Entire councils and sympathizers of important municipalities such as Soyapango, have resigned from the party because of "verticalist" decisions taken by the leadership of ARENA, headed by the ex-president, Alfredo Cristiani. According to Carranza, the leadership of ARENA "was not prepared for the democratic opening" which permitted its bases to designate its candidates because, in the end, the COENA authorities "did not respect their decision". "This experience has brought discontent", he declared. For the moment, the leaders of the party seem not to be concerned about the "massive" desertions of functionaries and sympathizers (El Diario de Hoy, November 3, p. 10).

TRANSPORTATION. Reforms to the Transportation Law which should have been approved on October 28 by the Legislative Assembly will have to wait at least two weeks more for the voting to take place because ARENA, PDC and PCN withdrew their support. The deputies argued that there was a need to study the proposals of the amendment. The Commission for Public Works issued, on October 26, a decision which would include seven reforms to the Transportation Law with special attention being paid to the drivers of busses and microbuses. But support for the decision was reduced to that offered by the FMLN, CDU and the USC, who did commit themselves to supporting the changes. The decision to put off the approval of the reforms caused irritation among members of the USC, given that the modifications to the law have been supported by ARENA since the beginning. "Unfortunately, the cowardice of ARENA and its satellite parties, PCN and PDC, ignored the effort", stated Mauricio Salazar of the USC. The plenary took place with attendance by several groups which rejected the efforts at amendments. The representatives of the transportation guild were present, headed by Genaro Ramirez, President of AEAS. Ramirez declared that his guild was in agreement with the greater part of the proposed reforms, although he stated that he would defend the right to free trade with respect to the transportation lines (La Prensa Gráfica, October 29, p. 5).