Center for Information, Documentation and Research Support (CIDAI)
E-mail: cidai@cidai.uca.edu.sv

Central American University (UCA)
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Tel: +(503) 210-6600 ext. 407
Fax: +(503) 210-6655

     Proceso is published weekly in Spanish by the Center for Information, Documentation and Research Support (CIDAI) of the Central American University (UCA) of El Salvador. Portions are sent in English to the *reg.elsalvador* conference of PeaceNet in the USA and may be forwarded or copied to other networks and electronic mailing lists. Please make sure to mention Proceso when quoting from this publication.
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INDEX

Editorial  Social issues attract sudden attention
Politics  Lessons from the earthquake
Economy  Economical implications of the January 13 earthquake
 

EDITORIAL

     Social issues were set aside in the predominant debate and analysis in El Salvador during the last decade. Politics, with all its attached problems, prevailed over social issues. Since the end of the Salvadoran civil war until today, there have been books, articles, colloquiums, and seminars dedicated to Politics and the politicians. There has been a debate about everything, including the democratic transition and consolidation, as well as the dynamic of the party system and the weaknesses and strengths of the electoral system. It is true that the practice of Politics in El Salvador has been strongly criticized. However, even in these cases, Politics and politicians have been the protagonists. As a result, some analysts and citizens consider that Politics, instead of being just one part of our reality, became the main stance from which the national problems were to be solved (or unsolved). The old idea establishing that “everything is political” turned into “Politics is what really matters”.

     Obviously, some people would say that what is happening –Politics becoming an extremely important issue—is imperative and a result of the historical process. In other words, it is the country’s historical dynamics in the post war what has put Politics (and politicians) at its peak and, as a result, it has been unavoidable to focus on this side of the reality. This may be true. The challenges of democratization may have made us direct a lot of intellectual effort into what Politics does. The avalanche of essays, analysis and studies dedicated to Politics led to a misrepresentation of problems originated in some other fields as important as the political problems, which cannot contain reality in all its richness. We are referring here to the socio economic problems, such as the vulnerability of most of the population, its structural conditions of risk, the ecosystem’s deterioration, and the growing poverty and marginality.

     This does not mean that there were not essays, analysis and studies of the socio economic dynamics. Of course there were. Nevertheless, the debate on these issues fell behind compared to the efforts done in the political line of work. Only the studies of the violence could compete with Politics occasionally, despite the continuing problems caused by the lack of safety for the citizens. Likewise, social issues have had a lesser impact on the public opinion. There is nobody to blame: neither political analysts (due to their claims that relate everything to Politics) nor sociologists (for abandoning the investigative and theoretical assessments of long and middle term) nor the mass media (for being readily available to report on any political event, no matter how insignificant and aberrant they are). Perhaps this situation is a result of the inertia that captured us all. Such inertia did not let us take the necessary distance to ponder the importance and specificity of the political, social and economical issues, with fairness.

     After the January 13 earthquake, the social problems took the place that they deserved. The conditions of structural risk, affecting the majority of the population, appeared as a main problem, to which it is necessary to devote as much or even more effort as that dedicated to Politics. Such structural risk should be approached from a proper conceptual and analytic stance. Correspondingly, the design of social solutions, even though involving Politics, should not be thought as strictly political. We have arrived to two corollaries: first, Politics does not have an answer for all the national problems (it is not supposed to have it); second, Politics does not contain all the country’s reality, just part of it. Therefore, regardless of the effort devoted to the political problems, this does not shed any light on nor contribute to the solution of the rest of our problems.

     El Salvador is negatively affected by severe social and economic fissures, whose amendment is not directly related to Politics. It is possible that the consolidation of a democratic political system might help reduce those fissures, but it will never be enough. There are a lot of examples of authoritarian political systems, where the society is not extremely segmented, while one can find fairly democratic political systems with severe social inequalities. In other words, the relationship between the socio economic issues and the political ones is not mechanical. Both fields have their own pace of development and, in ideal conditions, may affect each other positively.

     The challenge is to know those conditions, in which Politics can contribute to democracy, and in which the socio economic debate can add to the establishment of justice. It is equally important to know the tendencies and pace of development for all the above-mentioned fields. Some time before the end of the war, Politics became the main focus of attention, because of an intellectual and practical inertia. It became the fashion for analysts, journalists and academic lecturers. Leaving the fashion aside and feeling impelled by the victims’ suffering caused by the latest earthquake, we are supposed to pay attention to the socio economic motivations that make thousands of Salvadorans live in houses made from adobe and bahareque, located in the hills’ slopes, in the rivers’ borders prone to overflowing, suffering poverty and marginality. It is good to strive for exploring Politics deeply. It is also valuable to build democratic institutions. However, we must realize that most of the profound problems in our country are to be solved keeping some distance from the political parties, the Congress and the electoral law.

     The earthquake, registered last January 13, left undetermined consequences for the economic, social, political and ecological situation of El Salvador. Yet, nobody has analyzed what the Secretary of Economy, Miguel Lacayo, meant when he said that the earthquake would not impact the country’s economy. There is no doubt that we have had a regression of near 20 years, according to some analysts. This is a reason for us to choose the road of comprehension and negotiation, and move on.
 The Salvadoran society should use its own resources above all. Somehow, the earthquake can help rebuild the social fabric, so deteriorated in the current national circumstances. As long as we are able to face this situation of calamity, we can work our way to strengthen the bonds of our national identity. The solidarity discourse, currently in fashion, must be taken seriously and facilitate the participation of all the social groups in the debate of our problems. Sincere solidarity and moderate optimism can be the best collective therapy for the society at these moments of crisis.

     It is necessary to emphasize that this need for unity should not make us forget the responsibilities, mistakes and miscalculations, coming from those obligated to assist the victims. Everybody is supposed to get involved in the assistance labor. However, such collective responsibility should not take the place of those who have the constitutional obligation to give some relief for the earthquake victims. We are pointing out that national authorities are trying to avoid their responsibilities for the homeless by stressing the catastrophe’s magnitude. The country must ask them for explanations about both the lack of prevention in the case of a disaster and their inefficiency to give immediate assistance for the victims.

     Currently, some critical voices within the society have taken an important and constructive role in pointing and supervising the quality of assistance given to the victims by the government. Verbi gratia, the press coverage gave a more trustful idea of the damage extent after the earthquake than the inaccurate estimation given by the Committee of National Emergency (COEN, in Spanish). On the other hand, president Francisco Flores accepted to coordinate the aid distribution through the municipalities only when some people questioned the excessive and inefficient centralism, characteristic of the governmental plans to assist the victims right after the earthquake. It is going to take more time and effort to improve the concept of assistance applied by the government. The local governments should be given an important role in the decisions concerning their communities, overcoming the subordinated role they have been assigned all this time.

     Now that the municipalities are participating more actively, it is necessary to discuss the need for decentralization. We hope that the announcement of the government to give the assistance directly to the municipalities is not trying to create any kind of confrontation between the people and the local authorities. This would relieve the government of the pressure it was receiving. The extent of the disaster should motivate the participation of all the levels of the government. On the other hand, it makes necessary a change in the government style.

     Such change is part of the positive lessons left by the earthquake. It calls our attention how fast some social organizations acted to assist the victims, especially those that lost their homes. It was also interesting the reaction of the population living in risk areas (especially in Las Colinas and surrounding neighborhoods) and their spontaneous organization in the event of a legal claim for compensation against the government and some private companies with a potential responsibility in the disaster. This is an important moment for the society. The tradition of explaining all the disasters through supernatural causes is being replaced with the thoughts of a conscious citizenry, accusing the government for its policies and wrong decisions.

     There is a significant example of what the citizens can achieve when they claim their rights: the trial against the Lempa’s River Hydrological Plant (Presa 15 de septiempre, in Spanish), administered by the Lempa’s River Executive Committee (CEL, in Spanish). Some people, who suffered the consequences of a flood caused by water discharges during the tropical storm “Mitch” in 1998, brought a suit against the CEL. This experience might be a good example in the event that the victims of Las Colinas decide to file a suit against the government. The nature’s will is not blamed for some problems anymore, but the inactivity of the government.

     Obviously, personal responsibilities have to be determined, since a possible penalty against the State will not be transcendental unless the directly involved are not pointed out, specially when everybody knows who have allowed the abuse of construction  companies, who have been favoured by inadequate construction standards. As a first step it would be interesting and necessary to start with a penalty, even if it points at the State.

    On the other hand, this spontaneous step of the citizens predicts interesting moments for the national life. In the years that followed the Peace Agreement, two of the most evident citizens´ attitudes have been apathy, and the absence of civilian organizations for the defense of their rights. There is a sort of drowsiness among the citizenry. Such drowsiness was the result of  both the fatigue generated by the conflict and the demands against the performance of  State officials, who have tried to discredit the critics. The weariness, the propaganda and the discredit of politics had driven into that. In a way, this reaction is allowing to revive social actions not necessarily related with partisan politics. It is necessary to regain civilian grounds of this nature,  even to restore the prestige of politics in the national life.

     The earthquake of January 13, besides calling together all Salvadorans, it obliged to pay more attention to some forgotten issues of the national reality: first, the social role of the informative media. With the tragedy, the interest of the local media turned more evident. The controversy between the ones that are unconditional to officialism, and the ones that  intended to be independent from the executive power, shows the faults of journalism in this country.

     In second place, it is necessary to pay more attention to the environment. The ecological situation issue has been set aside in national debates. The lucrative ambitions of some social groups, the ignorance of some state officials and the lack of social sensibility have contributed to a poor performance on that issue. In this context, the demands of ecological groups can be easily unattended. However, the harm caused by the earthquake, compels to pay more attention to this issue and to discuss strategies to protect the environment.

     Finally, a wider participation of the society is necessary, and an improved organization of this society could make authorities listen to the civilian demands.  Participation should work as an engine for this necessary change, which urgency was revealed by the earthquake.

     After half a decade of being  held back in a slow growth process,  the Salvadoran economy faces now a new macro-disaster which, preliminarily, is estimated that has caused damages equivalent to an 8% and  10% of the Gross Domestic Income, also has made more sensible many social needs. Surprisingly,  the appraisal of state officials of the Secretariat of Economy seem to ignore this situation, and they foresee that there will not be a significant impact in the economy and, thus, they do not expect major variations in the economical growth rate.

      Secretary of Economy, Miguel Lacayo, stated that the disaster “will not have a negative impact on the economy,  but will  impact  the amount of debts that we will have to assume”. According to the Banco Central de Reserva (BCR) uttered a press release     which  estimated that the projections of economic growth will be kept in a range between  3.5% and 4.5% “despite of the damage caused by the earthquake”, since a growth in the amount of family remittances  and contract loans  is expected.
 These assertions need to be contrasted, since one thing is to establish that due to the in-debt  programs  the disaster’s negative economic impact will be soothed, and a another thing is to state, as Secretary Lacayo has, that the earthquake will have no impact on the national economy. The economic costs of a disaster can even  upset  the growth rate of a country, specially when it gains connotations of macro-disaster, or when it could bind to change the sectorial priorities of economic growth.

     It is worth to remember that, as a consequence of the earthquake, 25 coffee cultivations have been destroyed; 850 blocks of cultivated land have been lost; 70 percent of  industrial installations have been directly or indirectly affected. Public offices, malls and roads have also been significantly damaged. Without a doubt,  this will diminish the growth of farming, industry and transportation. The fishing industry also reports a drastic reduction of its economical activity due to an equally drastic reduction of  seafood. In the farming sector alone, the Minister of Agriculture estimates that 171,600 people (about a 10% of the economically active population) would be unemployed because of the damage in the farms.

     Even if the growth rates for 2001 meet the expectations of the BCR, it would not mean that there will not be a significant impact on the economy; it would only reflect that programs of reconstruction were performed with funds that, fundamentally, will come from the good will of fellow governments, from new loans and from the increase of external debt.

    However, it persists the risk that the expenses generated by the reconstruction programs will not have a significant multiplying effect  (specially in the farming and the industrial sector – not related to the construction field), because a good portion of it will become imports or more demand for industrial branches related to construction. As far as this is concerned, the Secretary of Economy stated that the temporary home construction program implies mostly the importation of construction supplies.

     By the end of the year, an improvement in the economical situation can hardly be expected, even if it would get growth rates of  6%, simply because all this economic growth, and even more, was lost throughout the seconds that the earthquake lasted. Besides, it must be considered that growth will necessarily suffer reorientations, since it will be leaded by sectors destined to become privileged along the reconstruction period. As an example, if prior to the earthquake somebody believed that a production growth would be leaded by the clothing factories or by the financial sector,  now it is more probable that the construction becomes the most dynamic sector of the economy. Even if national effort must be oriented towards housing construction  and physical reassurance duties, that must not lead us to believe that it will not be possible to reorient the economic policies and to promote a higher growth of farming and industry.

    Reconstruction is not just physical, it is economic, social and environmental as well. To discuss the economic issue does not mean to return to the situation prior to the January 13 earthquake, as President Francisco Flores intends it to be. But it also means that the economical conditions should be more prosper in a mid or long term. In this sense, reconstruction actually implies a “de-construction”  of the previous conditions, to get over many bottle necks of the economy, such as the absence of a strong export sector lacking a good international insertion, and the narrowness of an internal market influenced by the uneven distribution of the national income.

    The new investment policies must be done beyond reconstructing the previous vulnerability, and towards capitalizing the opportunity opened by the post-disaster development programs to reactivate and reorient the economy. Momentarily, housing policy gains special importance as an economic growth vehicle, which means more activity for the construction sector and for those demanding more supplies  (mining, industry, electricity, transportation). As it can easily be concluded, these sectors will not improve the  coffee economy in the most affected areas   such as Comasagua, in  La Libertad, or San Agustín and Alegría,  in Usulutan, which were practically destroyed.

    The local economy of these areas is disarticulated by the disappearance of ten coffee cultivation zones and the loss of hundreds of cultivation blocks due to landslides. This economic disarray will not be overcome  just by rebuilding houses or by reactivating coffee plantations, as important as it might seem in a short term. It is required, as a complement, the identification and the adoption of new strategies of local development that are not involved with the cultivation of coffee.

    This last disaster  is a result of our vulnerability to natural phenomenon such as earthquakes and hurricanes in El Salvador, as in most of the countries of the southern hemisphere. One of the dimensions of that vulnerability is the economic one. Not just in the sense of the high  rates of poverty, but because of the inadequate use of the limited resources that threaten a sustainable development. As ancient and recent history demonstrate, disasters become opportunities for the development of communities and countries  when these are discussed not as an immediate problem –or a military crisis that can be solved mobilizing the army, the police and the rescue teams-but as a structural problem that is originated in social features or, to put it into disaster terms, in its vulnerability.
 

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