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     Proceso is published weekly in Spanish by the Center for Information, Documentation and Research Support (CIDAI) of the Central American University (UCA) of El Salvador. Portions are sent in English to the *reg.elsalvador* conference of PeaceNet in the USA and may be forwarded or copied to other networks and electronic mailing lists. Please make sure to mention Proceso when quoting from this publication.

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Proceso 971
October 9, 2001
ISSN 0259-9864
 
 
 
 
 

INDEX

Editorial:  The lords of war
Politics:  The FMLN: towards the definitive rupture
Economy:  A business company perspective in ARENA
Society:  El Salvador and the allied military retaliation
 
 
 
 
 
 

EDITORIAL

    The terrorist attempts against the United States kept the world in suspense about how its military operation would turn out. Immediately after September 11th, the arrangements for a  high profile military attack against those who were identified with —at first— as the main suspects of planning the terrorist action in the United States territory. It was all a matter of time. On the one hand, the time that the United States would take to arrange the basic alliances to legitimate the military advance so that there would be no doubts about its accuracy. On the other hand, the time that the display of the United States military power and its allied forces would take, specially Great Britain, against the objectives to be destroyed, once that these would have been established with the necessary accuracy.

    It all seems to indicate that by Sunday, October 7th, both purposes would have been accomplished, since that day Afghanistan  —identified as the country that shelters Osama bin Laden and his army— was the object of a violent military attack perpetrated by the United States and Great Britain. During the following days, other great scale attacks have occurred in the Afghan territory and, therefore, an open war situation has been created between Afghanistan, the United States, and its alliance.

    It is a highly complex war. In the first place, because of the peculiar features of the territory in which the battles between the military forces will be fought: deserted zones, without enough water, and at high temperatures. Here, the Occidental troops will have to overcome numerous obstacles to confront soldiers that are already used to wander through the desert and shelter in caves that only they are familiar with.

    In the second place, because of the religious identity of the members of the Taliban army, which makes them see each other as the ones called by God (Ala) to fight the forces of evil. As the military commands of the former USSR realized one day that, sooner or later, the Occidental army commands will know that it is not easy to subject an army whose members are not afraid to die.

    Finally, that the attacks against Afghanistan, if they are not carried out with the enough tact, could be seen by those who practice the Islam as an attack against their culture and its religion. This becomes more of a potential danger because the United States government has announced that they are focusing on military objectives located at other Arabian countries. If the United States pretensions are materialized, the situation would turn into a highly probable attack of boundless consequences, since a damage between the relations of the United States and its allied forces in the Arabian world could be expected, as well as uncontrollable pressures from the population in these countries to break any alliance of their governments with the enemies of their faith.

    The complexity of the war that has started, makes everyone predict that its end is not near. Nobody knows how long it will last, nor the shape that it will take while the bombarding and the distance attacks open the way to a ground combat. What it is true is that, given the dimensions of the United States military design —sustained by their best war technology— and given the disposition of the Taliban and bin Laden to fight a “wholly war” against “Satan” (the United States), the suffering of children, women and defenseless elderly people will be incalculable. Until now, wars have not left anything but pain and mourning in the defenseless civilian populations. The results of the war that has recently started do not seem any different from others. Those who have shot guns, tanks, planes, ships, and missiles will be in better conditions to defend themselves (and attack) than the civilians that have no choice but to live in the middle of the conflict zones.

    Obviously, the lords of the war  —from whatever side they might be— could not care less about the suffering of the innocent ones. They are nothing but a part of the price that has to be paid for the “freedom crusade” or for the “Faith crusade”. Afterwards, when the war ends, these war lords will go back to their business, while the populations devastated by their weapons will remain even more destroyed by misery. It would not be odd to think that the story of the Gulf war could repeat itself, where the attacks of the military alliance headed by United States caused terror and destruction in Iraq, but they did not affect Saddam Hussein’s power, who still directs the destinies of the Iraqui population with the same despotism.

    Afghanistan is suffering a military attack that will leave that country breathless. It is possible that the United States' military actions (and its alliance's) take the power away from the Taliban, and allow Osama bin Laden's and his Al Qaeda henchmen capture (or death). However, that will not happen without irreparable human costs, which should have played the part of an important attention focus for those who did agree without the least consideration with the measures to respond to the attacks of the international terrorism.

    In the same sense, the evacuation of the Taliban and the capture or death of Bin Laden do not assure a bright future for the Afghan population. The truth is that Kofi Annan has promised to work for the creation of a representative and multi-ethnical Afghanistan; however, it is very probable that some of the North Alliance leaders  —backed up by the United States in their fight against the Taliban— will surely object on this initiative of the UN's General Secretary.

    Consequentially, nobody can guarantee  —not even the United States— what will Afghanistan's future would be like after the war. That does not seem to be an important issue at the moment, when the priority is to destroy the "enemies of freedom". For now, therefore, the lords of the war have the key aspects of this situation in their hands; the voices that favor the peace and the civilization have lost one more battle against the barbaric voices. While these voices keep imposing themselves nobody will be safe in the world, specially the poor, but also the rich and powerful: the shot guns, the planes and the ships crafted at their industries will also be fired over their heads.

    The left-wing's electoral expectations are somehow low these days. From a triumphant speech, confident to win the next 2003 and 2004 elections, some of its leaders already started to talk about the "electoral gift to the enemy" and "the fear to rule" to explain the other leaders' behavior. They are insinuating their disposition to accept the electoral implications that their temper tantrums and internal seditious movements will have. But probably the most important question that the FMLN members should ask themselves is what would allow them to get to the roots of the problem.

    From a different perspective, instead of resigning themselves to an announced defeat, they should ask themselves if the project of the left-wing branches is still viable. To this point, none of the parts in conflict has done much to resolve the internal difficulties, for the benefit of an alleged and more important common objective, which would be displacing the right-wing from the power.

    The problem of the FMLN's internal division was not born yesterday. The struggle for the party's control between the two main sources has been undermining all fickleness of an electoral triumph of the left-wing party. The starring role desires of some of its members have materialized themselves in this cartoon that the national press usually presents as a fight between the orthodox and the renovators.

    The ones called orthodox present themselves as the standard-bearers of the left-wing doctrine. What many people usually describe as an authoritarian and vertical attitude, seems to be what counts with more capability to impose its point of view and achieve more control over the party. Renovators usually present themselves as the ones willing to change the authoritarian functioning of the FMLN, and the ones gifted with internal democracy. They are introduced as well intentioned people, willing to walk according with the new El Salvador's democratic ideal; however at many times, they are the victims of the intransigence and the lack of understanding of the orthodox. That is why a considerable part of the national press presents the renovators as the victims of the bad-vertical orthodox.

     It is evident that the former characterization is a cliche, denounced or exploited by one or another band in conflict, according to the conveniences of hiding personal ambitions of controlling the left-wing party's structures. In the end, the problem that the FMLN faces is a personal problem of a political starring role, increased more or less by a desire to congratulate themselves with the governmental right-wing. In this struggle to achieve their personal interests, the renovators have won the public opinion battle, with the approval of a certain sector of the national press. That is why it is not convenient to them that the elimination of the movements in the last statutory reform goes into effect. This way, the power of the orthodox or the revolutionary would be consolidated, although under the evil spell of the right wing, but, apparently, more efficient at controlling the party's decision structures.

    That is the reason why, even if the statutory change were perfect and if it could be applied without any difficulties, as long as it would suppose the historical leaders' loss of strength, the problem of the internal schism would have remained. The difference between Facundo Guardado and Schafik Handal, to name two well known characters among the movements at conflict, is not the alleged democratic attitude of one, and the verticality of the other, but in the strategy used to gain control of the party's organizational structures. Another thing is the subsequent decision about what to do, and how to handle the power achieved, and also in the benefit of what social project it will be used.

    The end of the internal fight over the party's control can not be predicted at a short term. One or another movement always tries to manage its way to a higher internal power level. This is a normal subject, and it usually happens at the political institutions. However, what makes the problem worse inside of the FMLN, and that probably prevents them from achieving a permanent solution, is that each one of the members of the different movements feels that a historical leadership legitimacy supports its hegemony wish inside the FMLN. In these circumstances, the road of a compromise turns almost impossible as a solution to the internal rupture.

    In this context, chances are that the internal rupture leads to the establishment of a new party, just like it happened with the late PD. However, in order to take this step, there is a considerable difficulty: the different leaders of the movements would be considering the inconveniences of not counting with a party’s machine. In this case, none of them seems to be, at the moment, willing to repeat the experience of the former guerrilla commander Joaquin Villalobos.

    Although this alternative is presented as the most reasonable solution to the crisis that affects the left-wing party, it is probable that it will not be possible in a short term. The movement that would take such decision, with the disadvantage of not counting with the organizational structure of a party, would have to be sure that its accusations against its adversaries did have an effect on the public opinion, as to assure its political survival. Otherwise, it would be like undertaking a risky adventure that would condemn its leaders to a political death.

    While the suspense continues about the moment in which the final rupture inside the FMLN will be official, everything seems to indicate that the candidates to organize another left-wing party are the ones that are called renovators. They are presented as the ones left behind, who do not have an effective control over the party's decision structures. Their decision of having a parallel fraction in the Legislative Assembly seems to lead there. In addition, the retaliation strategy that consists on supporting ARENA's legislative tactics does not seem to be the ideal way to achieve more legitimacy inside the FMLN.

    In fact, many FMLN sympathizers, responding to the logic of the national political system's polarization, can find in that attitude more elements to support the betrayal and the "right-wing sympathizer" accusations, used to disqualify the renovators' initiatives. In that sense, it is a mistake of the renovators to think that by voting in favor of ARENA the orthodox will be punished. Their response to the left-wing internal problem develops into a struggle between the stigma of a "true left-wing", and the right-wing elements present inside it. They follow their detractors' game and they isolate themselves from the party's structure.

    In the meantime, what is most probable is that the new version of this internal fight in the FMLN contributes to aggravate the national and the political problems even more. Although some perceive in the renovators' decision (to get close to the legislative positions of the right-wing) a reasonable attitude, all that they accomplish with it is a loss of legitimacy in front of the eyes of their own colleagues. With that, they reduce their chances of promotion inside their own movement. In addition, they would have contributed to the consolidation of the ones recently designated as leaders of the right-wing.

    To what seemed as a thorny pathway to the next elections, and while the right-wing seemed to give distressing signs of its exhaustion, the internal fight in the left-wing party would have contributed to turn it into a new victory of the right-wing without any frights. In the end, the aspect that both parts will agree on is their contribution to increase the apathy of the population towards politics; destroy their own electoral possibilities, and to give the most evident proof that they are not yet ready to take control of power in this country.

    In El Salvador, the exercise of politics has been invariably in the hands of the minorities who own most of the resources and the means of production. From the independence to the present moment, characterized by ARENA's political hegemony —the party of the businessmen—, history reveals that, in a long term, the predominance of the capital owners in the conduction and the use of the state's apparatus, and the public policies seems to have turned into a constant practice.

    It should not sound odd, then, that after 180 years of independent life, the status quo keeps making evident a distribution of the value added that inclines in favor of both the "exploitation surplus" and the business companies’ sector, as well as a great amount of unfulfilled basic needs, and a constant increase of the poor population and the social violence. Things are not like this because of the actions of the free market, or by some inscrutable plan, but because the owners of the economic resources have managed to impose their economic and political perspective.

    The recent election of ARENA's National Executive Council (COENA) has been the latest proof of this business hegemony: representatives of the private business elite were elected. This is meaningful even in a party as ARENA, created from and for the business sector. Even before the election of the last COENA, this council would include activists and professional politicians, more than it included the businessmen’s elite. This does not deny, however, that other businessmen have been in the first line of fire: the former presidents Alfredo Cristiani and Armando Calderon Sol are businessmen, while the composition of the different economic cabinets has always displayed a strong presence of the business sector.

    A high political profile of the businessmen is neither good nor bad in itself; its real character comes from its doctrine and, specifically, from how it understands its interaction with the working class sector. Models such as the American one, where workers are considered as a fundamental part of the production and distribution process, and not just as one more production factor, have demonstrated to have a positive economic, social and political viability.

    That is why the arrival of new actors from the business sector to ARENA cannot be judged beforehand as a drawback for the workers, although it must call everyone's attention about the need to improve the workers sector's profile, not only in ARENA, but in society in general. Even more if it is considered that, essentially, the business sector's proposals (which surely are not that different from the ones of the COENA, and therefore, of ARENA's) intend to create conditions for the businessmen to increase the profitability of their investments.

    Some of the proposals recently presented by the National association of Private Business (ANEP) to president Flores have to be considered: the reduction of the energy cost; the improvement of the roads' infrastructure; the control of the public expense; citizens’ safety; support for the micro and the small business, for the exportation, construction, and the industrial sectors. The government received an agenda that, according to the business sector, should be adopted by its administration.

    Despite what some people might think, the arrival of this new "business" COENA does not imply radical changes in the ways to conceive and do politics at ARENA, because the business sector has always been behind its actions. More favoritism to the business sector from the government is the most that can be expected, which in the end would not mean an important change. The protectionism practices applied to some economic sectors have been present throughout the three ARENA governments, despite that at the same time everyone of them has kept a neoliberal discourse.

    Some emblematic cases are: the tax reform that reduced the business owners’ taxes, the "emergency" measures for the coffee-growing sector (back in 1991), the separate negotiation of "sensible" products (beer, cement, automobiles) in the free trade agreements, the special support offered to the investors and owners of the re-privatized banks and the subsidies for the maquila investment credit.

    However, it is precisely the small probability of a change in the public policies the most serious aspect of the present COENA. ARENA has the same —or even higher—  possibilities of wining the next legislative and municipal elections, and even the presidential ones, which will be celebrated in 2004. In this scenery, the continuity of this party's economic model turns into a possibility and, at the same time, into a weakness when it comes to face the inevitable process of reinsertion of El Salvador, given the changing world economy.

    El Salvador, known as a coffee-growing economy —to which later an incipient industrial sector was added— has turned into an economy based on two factors: the textile maquila and the family remittances, send by the workers who were previously expelled by the Salvadoran work market. This is one of the most evident results of the globalization, and it is not promising because of the volatility of both the maquila investments and the family remittances.

    The social situation is just as volatile, because of the deep structural needs that have always existed in this field, as much as for the impact of the permanent social and natural disasters, caused by floods, dry seasons and earthquakes.

    The COENA’s new structure could only be and advertisement trick to improve ARENA’s image in a  moment of evident divisions and harmful desires of being the main character in the political field. However, it should invite the voters and the rest of political parties to reflect over the urgent need to redefine the economic model to correct its weak points and its negative effects (slow growth, the difficulties of the productive sectors, the division of the economy in three sectors, a low revenue level, little public investment, low levels of social expenses, and an excessive dependency of external supplies).

    Unfortunately, the level of ideological development of the working sectors, and even the one of the most important opposition parties, does not seem to be at the height of the initiatives undertaken by ARENA. At least that is what can be inferred from the fact that this party has no other interlocutor but the private business sector. Any other proposal that might come from a different sector goes to a dead end and meets an official boycott. The construction of a nation’s proposal from a true agreement of all the social sectors, and not only from the private business companies is, actually, the most serious challenge that the new COENA should face, since on that depends in a good amount the long term viability of the Salvadoran society.

    In the same way, the opposition parties, and specially the FMLN, have the challenge to propose alternatives for the economic model that might neutralize its weakness, take advantage of its strong features and that, at the same time, have economical, social and political viability. In summary, a good communication is required in both a civilian and a political society, which is every time more distant from the fundamental needs of the population.

    The Salvadoran population, just like it happened with the September 11th terrorist attacks, has closely followed the development of the allied forces’ military answer in the Afghan territory. The national press, the radio and television saturated spaces to cover, since October 7th, the beginning of the expected military retaliation against the Taliban regime, which both controls Afghanistan since 1996 (through the execution of a "total Islamic system"), and shelters Osama bin Laden, the world's most wanted man.

    Through the "lasting freedom" operation, the United States and its main allied force, Great Britain, started the first wave of bombarding against military objectives in the main cities of Afghanistan. Three days after the operation started, five waves of attacks in a row caused destruction in the Afghan territory and the accidental death of four UN local officials; in addition, those attacks would have caused the death of almost 50 people, according to the Taliban regime authorities.

    Additionally, the fear of an allied force military offensive had already produced the journey of thousands of Afghans to neighbor territories that are considered safer; for the beginning of the military operation, the migratory movements had already aggravated, although an exact number of the amount of people in this conditions is not yet available and remains unknown. The United States television network CNN has informed of a total amount of 22 million of inhabitants in Afghanistan, but it has not specified their migratory status.  On the other hand, at the main United States cities —and even at some European ones— a generalized fear for an eventual new terrorist attack was evident, as a consequence of the situation developed in Afghanistan.

    After the unexpected terrorist attack to New York and Washington, the Salvadoran politicians, the most important national economy actors and the citizenry found new spaces in the media to express their opinions and expectations about the uncertain national and international situation. One thing was clear back then: terrorism is such a current and elusive calamity that, with the globalization opportunities, it does not respect frontiers and threatens any nation. However, as it was expected, there were many contrasting interpretations about this issue.

    Generally, a unanimous condemn against terrorism was expressed, despite that some voices of the FMLN —at an unfortunate situation and without any diplomatic tact— took advantage of the opportunity to point out the "sins" of the united States and their international policies. At the same time, the productive sectors expressed their fears for a possible damage of the Salvadoran economy, particularly, and the world economy, in general.

    A similar situation was given after the military alliance retaliation over Afghanistan. Although, in this case, there was a higher polarization of opinions. The governmental sector and the official party justified the military actions, faithful to the discourse of "the defense of freedom and democracy" headed by the United States and, in general, the Occidental governments. A more moderate line also condemned terrorism, however, at the same time, it pointed out the need to guarantee the physic and moral integrity of thousands of innocent people that could easily become indirect targets of the allied forces’ attacks, the unrestricted xenophobia or the same ideological-religious retaliation.

    In general terms, El Salvador has kept a dangerous ideological posture in the present situation. There has been an unfair identification between Muslim and terrorist, almost every "civilized" Occidental individual makes that comparison, based on a manipulated interpretation of reality. Words such as the ones of the ARENA deputy, Walter Araujo, who said that "we hope that us, the true democratic forces that love freedom, achieve that victory against terrorism. The good forces will defeat the forces of evil", are a sample of that idea.

    Another ARENA deputy, Guillermo Gallegos, legitimated the allied forces’ attacks against Afghanistan: "The United States has performed a legitimate action, they count with the support of other nations in this combat". On the other hand, the PCN legislator, Antonio Almendariz, expressed that "the United States is performing a necessary demonstration to make clear that it is time to take away the impunity from the international terrorism".

    At the same time, the interpretations of the other opposition figures and citizens who disapprove of violence were also collected. "We think that it is necessary to indicate that our party will not approve of any measure that fights terrorism by causing damages to the innocent civilian population", said Fabio Castillo, from the FMLN. Roberto Lorenzana, also an FMLN member added that "an effort has to be made in order that the international peace is not threatened". San Salvador's Archbishop, Fernando Saenz Lacalle, added that "terrorism cannot be fought generating more violence"; finally, a Salvadoran citizen who is a resident in California expressed his discontent with the military retaliation: "I do not agree with the Taliban activities, but I do not agree either with the killing of innocent people".

    The production sector has also been worried by the present conditions of the national and the international environment. An that is why one of the collateral effects of the terrorist threat has been the production and financial unbalance of the United States, the main business associate of Latin America. Even the United States congress members approved a $40 million expenditure to finance the military actions against terrorism. On the other hand, the military actions in the center of Asia caused an increased need for war supplies, instead of the need for the traditional supplies —fundamentally produced in the Latin American countries. The amount of family remittances that come from the Salvadorans who live abroad were reduced also. In other words, the demand for the traditional products that El Salvador and the rest of the Central American region have traditionally exported to the United States would suffer a serious reduction, paralyzing some activities in different areas.

    Additionally, the Salvadoran economic situation —before the explosion of "the century's first crisis"— was already something to worry about. A sample of that has been the decrease of the maquila activity, despite that President Flores and his economy cabinet insist that the maquila is a sector in full bloom. To that we can add the little perspectives of an economic growth, as a consequence of the decrease of the traditional value exportations and because of the effects of the January and February earthquakes. In this context, the main unions from different business organizations were the first ones to systematically analyze the present conditions.

     For the Salvadoran Association of Industrials (ASI), the country would be affected due to the absence of a war supplies' production. "In a war, the United States will import other supplies that it needs, and which we do not produce, and that will be a positive effect that we will not have in this region", according to the executive director of the union, Jorge Arriaza. The National Association of the Private Business (ANEP) was in a process of evaluation, in order to neutralize the negative effects for the Salvadoran productive apparatus. "As a country, we have to take certain measures, so that the negative effects that the United States will have do not affect us that much. We are evaluating a number of measures", said Luis Mario Rodriguez, from ANEP.

    Finally, for Roberto Rubio, from the National Foundation for Development (FUNDE), "if the conflict expands to Iraq and Iran and the Holly War call is made, a pressure on the prices might be possible". However it might be, the impact on the weak and dependent economies such as the Salvadoran is almost inevitable, mostly because of the dimensions and the expansion of the military operations in Afghanistan, and the possibility that it might be extended to other Arabian countries.

    The situation is truly uncertain and challenging. At these moments of crisis anything is said and anything is done. Everything is allowed. However, tolerance, freedom and mutual respect  —which paradoxically we Occidentals at the same time defend and consider relative values— are values that are imposed from the survival perspective of humanity itself. From the most important cities of the world to the most remote third world landscapes the future of humanity itself is still something to worry about. As it has been said before in many Occidental sectors, the United States would be making a mistake by polarizing the world even more. “Against terrorism or against us”, this phrase that legitimates the United States power in the planet and, that at the same time divides it in “the good ones” and “the bad ones”, in Occidental and Islam, in civilized ones and fanatics. Nothing more dangerous than stigmatizing reality in such way.

    This actions, have exacerbated the anti-North American feeling in the Arabian world, to the point of using an immeasurable violence. With the explosion in the Middle East, the negotiation process and the hopes of peace are being buried, at the same time that there is a growing menace of a terrorist counterattack. And the spiral goes on. In such a sensible region, one of the potential dangers is the rise of a new petroleum crisis, which could happen very easily; it would be enough if the United States loses its Arabian Alliance in the region, in response to the polarized environment.

    Finally, a doubt emerges about the efficiency of the international organizations’ role in the configuration of the present world order. The UN has not been able to control the conflict and the polarization to which the recent affairs are going at. In summary, The configuration of the world’s scenery requires a redefinition of the international relations. On October 7th, while the bombarding started at Afghanistan, the morning paper La Prensa Grafica published an interview made to David Browning, an English Professor at the Islamic Studies Center, in Oxford University, who previously wrote about El Salvador. “CNN day after day says: ‘the war against terrorism’. And the perception is that terrorism is Islamic. It is not. And that increases the risk, the suspicion and the mutual hate”, said Browning. Certainly, El Salvador plays a modest role in this situation; however, every Salvadoran could cultivate a mutual tolerance and respect.