Center for Information, Documentation and Research Support (CIDAI)
E-mail: cidai@cidai.uca.edu.sv

Central American University (UCA)
Apdo. Postal 01-168, Boulevard Los Próceres
San Salvador, El Salvador, Centro América
Tel: +(503) 210-6600 ext. 407
Fax: +(503) 210-6655
 

     Proceso is published weekly in Spanish by the Center for Information, Documentation and Research Support (CIDAI) of the Central American University (UCA) of El Salvador. Portions are sent in English to the *reg.elsalvador* conference of PeaceNet in the USA and may be forwarded or copied to other networks and electronic mailing lists. Please make sure to mention Proceso when quoting from this publication.

     Subscriptions to Proceso in Spanish can be obtained by sending a check for US$50.00 (Americas) or $75.00 (Europe) made out to 'Universidad Centroamericana' and sent to the above address. Or read it partially on the UCA’s Web Page: http://www.uca.edu.sv
     For the ones who are interested in sending donations, these would be welcome at Proceso. Apdo. Postal 01-168, San Salvador, El Salvador.

INDEX

EDITORIAL

    The Communications Secretariat from the Republic's Presidency has published a newsletter about the new safety plan, aimed to "reinforce the protection of the Salvadorans" and to "protect the national territory from the terrorist groups". The plan includes to strengthen the control at the borders. The "specialized groups" from both the police and the army have been assigned to accomplish this duty. Their performance is concentrated in a more strict migratory and customs control, however, such duties delay the travelers and the luggage traffic.

    The authorities say that all of these measures intend to provide more safety and protect the population. However, what they are actually looking for is to control the smuggling activities, which is illegitimate, without mentioning that the methods they use are primitive. The most important business companies, which are the most affected ones by this illegal activity, have been the first ones to approve this governmental measure.

    The government is confusing smuggling with safety. Unless smuggling is understood in a wider sense: if it goes against the state's income, it also goes against the national safety. However, even if it was like that, it is very questionable that the police and the army have the required training for the task they are performing. The presence of the police and the army does not offer more guarantees than the civilian official, because the most probable thing is that, after some time, the smugglers will be making deals with the police and the army's high rank officers, so that they can continue with the illegal traffic with no difficulties at all. Therefore, both institutions will be connected again with illegal activities.

    On the other hand, the Salvadoran government has to quickly find a way to balance its openness with the annoying and bureaucratic controls. Unless it is taken seriously that "the safety standards have forever changed in the entire world", even if it means to sacrifice this openness. This one is still crucial for the economic plans, mostly because the national economy is presently suffering a recession. In any case, the Presidential House assures that the purpose is to give "more tranquility to the Salvadorans who live abroad and to those who live in this country, and also to protect the countries that are directly related to us through trading and traveling activities".

    To judge by this declaration, the Salvadoran population would have been worried until the government adopted the measures that were already mentioned in the newsletter. Actually, this county's life develops normally, unless we discuss the presence of the police and the army, who are heavily armed, not only breaks up with the ordinary activities, but it is also a source of protests and inconveniences. It is very questionable that an armed soldier or a policeman can check a trailer full of merchandise more efficiently tan a trained and well paid civilian, who would not be so easy to bribe. Powerful shot guns are not what is required at the borders, but trained and educated individuals.

    Terrorists and drug dealers are not easily scared away with weapons, but these do frighten the regular citizen who uses these facilities. It has been demonstrated that the drug dealers can circulate throughout the Salvadoran territory despite those military displays, which are not even aimed against them, and do not guarantee the population's safety. They are simply frighten the population.

    Safety is the excuse, but the real purpose is to develop a state ruled by the police, and, in any case, frighten the population to avoid protests about the deterioration that their life standards are experimenting.  The explanations that the authorities give are confusing, which indicates that they do not even understand the dispositions that they adopt, and that they create even more confusion by obeying unrevealed plans, such as the consolidation of a state ruled by the police, directed by civilians. In fact, the Salvadoran authorities talk about expanding the control and the vigilance to increase the protection against terrorists, but at the same time they assert that the need to stop the smuggling activities.

    On the one hand they say that they are after the international terrorists, but at the same time they call the former patrol members (and the opposition party members)"terrorists" when all they do is to demand their rights out in the streets of San Salvador. When the term "terrorist" is manipulated in such an inept manner, the Salvadoran authorities have taken away the meaning from the word and, in brief period of time, it will be nothing but another name to discredit the political adversaries. The least that can be said is that if the authorities responsible for the national safety do not understand what is the objective they pursue with their measures, the normal result is that they end up performing their duties inefficiently.

    There have been distressing situations, however, it is the same affliction that everyone already knows, caused by the economic crisis, unemployment, poverty, low purchasing power, the former patrol members and their protests, kidnapping,  delinquency, unpunished homicides, a District Attorney’s office that is disregarded from the victims interests, the public transportation drivers and their abuse, and a very long etcetera. It is the affliction caused by those disorders that the ARENA government have been willing to face, and which have become a part of the everyday life. A fearful population does not react. Terror is efficient to paralyze any social protest that could emerge from a well known anguish.

    Most Salvadorans are not worried much about the international terrorists. They are not too concerned either about the drug dealers. None of them is a reason to be worried or insecure about for most of the population. Its worries are very different. On a daily basis, most of the population has to overcome the obstacles that threaten its survival, and those are certainly not terrorists nor drug dealers. They are a problem for both the government and the right-wing politicians, who are more, concerned with Washington's government than with the Salvadoran reality.

    Instead of paying more attention to the unsafe situation of the lives of most Salvadoran —because of the threat that the vulnerability to face the natural events represents, the economy's recession, and violence— they are concerned about the United Sates safety.  The only ones who have a reason to feel worried about are those who the newsletter refers to as "the countries that are directly connected to us through trade and the travelers' flow", and there is only one country like that: the United States.

    The Republic’s Presidency has had the discretion of not calling it by its name, however, there was no need to do that. That is why the newsletter seems to have the wrong signature. Instead of being signed by the Communications Secretariat of the Republic’s Presidency, it should be signed by The Unites States of America Embassy’s mission in El Salvador.

    Some legislators usually answer to the question about the growing discredit in which the first organ of the state is falling into, by mentioning the citizenry's lack of understanding or the exacerbation, in the editorial cartoons, that some national informative media usually draw about the debates at the Legislative Assembly. This is known, using the deputies language, as the famous "media agenda". The national legislators would be considered the victims of the controversial information need that encourages the local media. This way, the bad grades that most of the population gives to the deputies' performance  —according to several opinion polls—, would not totally represent the reality of their performance nor the perspectives defended at their job.

    To tell the truth, there is a lot of the "media agenda" in the monitoring that many local media give to the events at the Legislative Assembly.  Too many times, the intention is to make the deputies look as if they were closely collaborating with Satan, by exclusively presenting their arguments, disagreements and mistakes. It is probably forgotten too quickly that they are the members of a professional association and that it is normal that they have different political sensibilities and that the arguing, the disagreements and the negotiations are logical tasks of this Organ of the State.

    In this sense, it is absurd to compare the performance of the Executive power with the performance of the Legislative Assembly. In the first one, we find the officials who have been named over the amount of trust that the President might have in them. That is why, in case of a disagreement or in the case of losing that trust, it is logical that one or another official is exempted from his duties. Instead, in the case of the legislative organ, the performance of its members obeys to a different mechanism: the deputy responds, in theory, to the people, who have elected him to perform certain activities, which, among others, there is the control of the government.

    However, since the people have elected among different political sensibilities, it is normal that they do not always agree, and that they have different and sometimes even opposite appreciations of reality. The rules of the game stipulate that the people will impose a sanction, rewarding or punishing with their vote, the performance of each one of the political tendencies at the Legislative Assembly.

    The fact that a good part of the press has not paid much attention to this, or that it intended to maximize the disagreements among the deputies, is not enough reason to explain the discredit revealed, once and again, by the public opinion polls. There must be something more that can explain the constant erosion of the civilian's trust in both the deputies and the Legislative Assembly. In order to understand the former ideas, it is enough to examine the approval of the last two laws adopted by this Organ of the State. This can give an idea of the nature of the interests that are defended by most of "the country's mentors": it is a law about the Trading and Selling of alcoholic beverages, and the AIDS law.

    About the new Trading and Selling of alcoholic beverages law, it could be said that the initiative comes from a group of citizens who are discontent with the performance of another institution of the state. During the past few days, different left-wing Municipal Councils, from San Salvador's Metropolitan Area, would have issued both regulations which restricted the sale and the consumption of alcoholic beverages  to a certain hour of the night. Saying that such regulation meant a reduction in their economic activities, different associations of restaurant owners interceded before the Legislative Assembly to ask for a new law to annul the mayors’ decision.

    There is no doubt that the citizens who feel affected in a negative way by any decision taken by one of the states' instances have every right to discuss, intending to revert the terms of such decision. However, something that the politicians, specially the members of the Legislative Assembly, usually evaluate in these cases is the advantages and the disadvantages of a measure such as this one —or their popular acceptance—  to make a decision. That is the reason why, in general, the controversial decisions in countries such as El Salvador are usually influenced by the public opinion.

    A question should be asked about the right-wing deputies' motivation to change the mayors' decision. While the national public opinion seemed to approve the time restriction for the sale and the consumption of alcoholic beverages, it is not easy to understand what were the reasons to change the law. And, what is even more serious, is that it is not clear how the legislators could ignore the voice of the police members who talk about a sensible decrease in crimes and accidents related with alcohol, ever since the popular "dry law" took effect.

    This is the moment when the famous economic interests enter the picture. There is no doubt that the right-wing deputies' decision is influenced by the economic interests of a certain sector. It is the case of the beer industry, its sale and consumption is free in the new law. However, the curious aspect of this situation is that other businessmen, who produce a different kind alcoholic beverages, denounced the evident favoritism, and expressed their support to the regulation propelled by the mayors.

    About this situation it can be said that in every country of the world, legislators get carried away by certain economic interests, which, most of the time go against the different interests of the civilians. Therefore, it should also be mentioned that those performances contribute with the citizens' generalized discontent, upset by the politicians' performance. The dominant economic interests, in general, do not have much to do with the interests of most of the citizenry. And because of their compromise with the former, the Legislative Assembly is applauded by them. Its growing discredit is due to its repeated foolish decisions, which are almost not even facing the aspirations of most  Salvadorans.

    Another sample of that awkwardness, many times accompanied by ignorance, is the recently approved AIDS law. Suddenly, our legislators declare that it is obligatory that the business companies' owners demand from the people they are about to hire an HIV test. One of the eminent Mentors of the Country (as the congressmen are called in El Salvador) supports such decision in the need to protect the millions of healthy Salvadorans, from the reduced group of 30,000 infected ones. However, it is soon forgotten that this measure is violating the intimacy right, at the same time that it favors the abuse of the business owners, something very common in our society.

    It is astonishing that a deputy might have wanted to legitimate such decision, and it is even more amazing that some of them think that they are legislating in favor of the people who carry the virus of this mortal disease. In both cases, ignorance and blindness come before the society's strongest economic interests. These are the reasons that explain the decisions of the national legislators. Their objective seems to be moving away from the citizens, denying them their most basic rights. In this context, it would be odd that they had prestige and that the people trusted in them.

    After the third trimester of 2001, the macroeconomic context did not reflect any improvements; on the contrary, the uncertain situation became even more serious as a result of the impact caused by the enormous collapse of the coffee prices, and as a consequence of the January and February earthquakes. The impact of the September 11th terrorist attacks against the United States is still difficult to evaluate in the daily accessible information, since this one only includes the pieces of information that were available until the last day of September.

     However, even without considering the potential effect of the terrorist attempts, the macroeconomic situation is not positive. According to the Banco Central de Reserva’s (Central Bank of Reserve) records, the GNP grew only 1.5% in the second trimester; except for the industry, the construction business and the financial sector, all of the economic sectors reduced their production volume; the balance of commerce deficit reached $1,612 million in September; the fiscal deficit was $292 million. At least the inflation has been kept at low and steady levels: 3.3% of annual variation and 0% of a monthly variation for September.

    Discouraging perspectives are added to this, when it comes to consider the unfavorable international context for the main traditional exportation product (coffee);  the reduction of the economic growth in the United States with its subsequent effects over the textile maquila, the employment of the Salvadoran immigrants in that country, and the reduction of the family remittances that they send; and, as if this was not enough,  the impact that the new international confrontation, headed by the United States, will have.

    However, just as it was pointed out at the beginning of this article, even without considering the dark perspectives for the future, the examination of the macroeconomic performance is already alarming. Until June, 2001, the GNP's growth only revealed a 1.5%  increase which, added to the 1,7% growth obtained during the previous trimester, and to the decreasing indicators of the third trimester business activities, reveal that, by the end of the year, the GNP's growth will only reach between 1,5% and 1.7%.

    This situation would mean a new setback in the growth rates, which have been decreasing ever since 1996, progressively going from 6% levels to 1% levels (for 2000, the rates were in a 2% order). If this tendency is kept steady  —something very probable in the international circumstances—, for the year 2002 and 2003, El Salvador would be going into a economic recession process, that is into a GNP reduction.

    An important piece of information that cannot be ignored is the fact that although during the last couple of years the interest rates have been significantly reduced, the private investment and the production are not being increased as they should be. In fact, the reduction of more than 3% in the active interest rate experimented during the year 2001 has lived along a tendency to the reduction of the financial system's credit which, although it is a slight one, it is symptomatic. In fact, between December 2000 and September 2001 the interest rates went from 12.41% to 8.93%; however, at the same time the private's sector credit was reduced when it went from $5,480 to $5,462 million. This could be due to the fact that the financial system keeps a very rigid criteria for the credit approval, that the credit demand is not responding to the rates' recession, that there is a high debt level or to a combination of two or three of these factors.

    On the other hand, the September 2001 fiscal deficit reached $292 million, a very similar amount to the $298 million registered in the same month during the year 2000. It would not be impossible then, that the year 2001 closes with a relatively high deficit, similar to the one of the last year, which reached $508 million. Although the government keeps saying that it has a debt margin to finance the deficit, the truth is that it must not be ignored that it has grown so much that already for September 2000 and 2001, the 1997 fiscal deficit ($219 million) had already been surmounted by it.

    The external sector’s behavior shows a strong deterioration, which is a product of the coffee exportation’s collapse, and a result of the uncontrollable increase of the importations. During September 2000, the balance of commerce reached $1,331 million, while during September 2001 the same deficit reached $1,612 million, which reflects an increase of more than a 21%. In the same period a fall in the coffee exportation has also been registered from $275 down to $108 million. If this is combined with an importation increase from $3,574 to $3,815 million, which explains the deterioration of the balance of commerce, previously mentioned in this article.

    It is important to mention, that although there was a slight increase on the non-traditional exportations (from $713 to $755 million), this was not enough to revert the deficit tendencies. As always, the serious external sector’s imbalance has been partially absorbed by the family remittances and the contraction of the loans, however, it still is an unmistakable sign of the development model’s untenable situation.

    As far as the prices and the salaries are concerned, it is worth to mention the fact that the inflation has been kept at one digit levels, to the point that for September 2001 the annual inflation rate was 3.3%, while the monthly inflation rate was 0%, that means that the Prices’ General Index was not modified during that month. If it keeps like that, by the end of the year, an inflation rate of 4% could be expected, similar to the one obtained in 2000. These rates, although they are low, they keep accumulating their effects over a minimum salary that has not been increased since 1996, and which has been losing its purchasing power along the last two decades.

    In summary, the macroeconomic environment is not improving despite the last measures of the third ARENA government (tax reforms, dollarization, the creation of productive support lines for the coffee-growing sector), and that situation is neatly reflected in the economic growth rates that have been falling to a range of 1%, in a strong increase of the balance of commerce’s deficit, in the fiscal deficit’s increase and in the real minimum wage salary’s deterioration.

    It seems that the ARENA governments did not take advantage of the moment to implement economic reforms that would give sustainability to the growth and the macroeconomic stability without suffering any traumatisms. By the mid nineties, the imbalance was already announced, and many sectors demanded some changes in an economic model that was already revealing itself as a dependant of the family remittances, the foreign investments on the textile maquila, and based on the agricultural sector’s growth.

    In the present, the model is even weaker because of the international context’s confusion, and because of the accumulated effect of the social and the natural disasters —specially those caused by the earthquakes and the dry seasons. The most evident menace is the low growth of United States’ economy and the heavy dependency of our economy from the one of the United States: 55% of the net exportations, and some 70,000 jobs are generated by a textile maquila production aimed to the United States, 90% of the balance of commerce’s deficit is covered by the family remittances that  the Salvadorans who live in the United States send, and 65% of El Salvador’s total amount of exportations have that country as a final destiny.

    Now more than ever, it is necessary a redefinition of the economic model based on the productive sector’s growth, non-traditional exportations, and tax reforms that mitigate the fiscal deficit without punishing the lower income families. To pretend that the Salvadoran economic model will work by itself, leaving it on the hands of the market’s inertia, it can only conduct the country to a crisis of unknown dimensions.